The Grand National. It’s a historic event that takes place year on year. For the avid horse bettors amongst you it’ll be a clearly marked day on your calendar that you look forward to all year round.
\r\n\r\nThe rest of you may turn to Horse Racing once or twice a year for Cheltenham and the National. Regardless of your level of knowledge when it comes to Horse Racing anyone can bet and win on the National.
\r\n\r\nWe’re going to take you through our step by step preview of the all the runners with a chance and what you should be looking for when it comes to making your Grand National selection this weekend.
\r\n\r\nThroughout the preview, we’re going to name drop some of the best Horse Tipsters to ever grace our platform, who will without doubt give you a strong chance of making a profit in the coming days and during Saturday’s big race.
\r\n\r\nSo where do we start?
\r\n\r\nWell, it’s important to know what you’re dealing with. The Grand National is a National Hunt horse race. It is a handicap steeplechase over 4 miles 514 yards, with 30 fences for the horse to tackle over two big laps of the Aintree racecourse.
\r\n\r\nKnowing the distance and the physical requirements of such a race is more important than you know, with a general rule of thumb to be wary of horses that are over a certain weight. Horses carrying an extra bit of timber generally haven’t performed and although there’s been a couple of exceptions here and there, there’s few horses that have triumphed at weights of 11-03 and above.
\r\n\r\nBy that logic we would have seemed to make it clear the likes of The Last Samuri (11-10), More of that (11-6) and Saphir De Rheu (11-5) just to name a few whose price would suggest they have a fair chance, but again, there have been exceptions to that rough rule of thumb with the likes of Hedgehunter, but for the most part the winner has been a little bit leaner.
\r\n\r\nRegardless of where a horse may have finished in last years standings, experience counts for a lot in the Grand National and even those who performed poorly but did finish the National course in previous years have to be considered. The new rules dictate that any runner has to be proven having finished fourth or better in a chase of 3m or longer, so it’s a really capable field and you shouldn’t let the odds dictate where your money goes.
\r\n\r\nWhy exactly is age a factor? Well, we all know how a horse's performance can develop by age and experience of this particularly course in necessary. One interesting thing that the the statistics will tell you that despite almost a third of National entries in recent years being 11 years or older, the winner has been aged between nine and 10 years in seven of the last 10 National’s run.
\r\n\r\nThat fact would suggest that you could perhaps rule out horses of the age, but most runners are 10 and under in this edition and at nine years of age, the likes of Cause of Causes (10-13) at 14/1, Ucello Conti (10-12) at 16/1, Pleasant Company (10-12) at 16/1 all fit the criteria of being in the nine to 10 range, a good weight and previous good showings at such distances.
\r\n\r\nAnd there are two statistics in particular that we’re keen to share. I made a quick note of them but I can’t for the life of me remember where I saw them, so credit to keen statistician who pulled these two our of the bag. It’s been 74 years since a seven year old triumphed, so a lack of experiences rules them - and possibly eight year olds - out of this race. With a strong contingent of French bred and trained horses in the race also, it’s important to note that their poor record has seen just two French horses win a national - and they were both British trained!
\r\n\r\nSo based on what some very strong trends tell us, some rough rules of thumb to help the less experienced amongst you who want to take on the responsibility of picking your own horse, you probably want a nine or 10 year old who has some good form at this distance and experience of this course, and preferably you’d like them to be carrying 11-2 or less in weight.
\r\n\r\nWith such a big field anything is possible, and you’ll want to make sure you give equal consideration to some longer odds and not just the listed favourites. Ticking some of the boxes could be the likes of Regal Encore at 50/1, Pual Nicholls’ Just A Par at 30/1 and Thunder and Roses at 33/1. These are all just outside possibilities and in no way betting tips, of course.
\r\n\r\nBut it could just pay to have an each way or two or some longer odds in the National as anything can happen in such a large field. It might be worth noting though that the average odds of a Grand National winner in the period dating from 1992 to 2016?
\r\n\r\nWell, it’s a large sample size and times change, but it has held true in recent races. The average odds of the winner are 24/1, with the favourite winning just three times. In fact, the favourite has won on only seven occasions since 1952. This years favourite is Definitely Red at 10/1.
\r\n\r\nThe range of winning odds has seen a 13/2 favourite triumph, and although the average odds of a winner are 24/1, they have been boosted by several winners at 50/1 and a 100/1 shot also. Cocktails at Dawn is 100/1 and has placed at this distance recently, so who knows? But 13 of 24 winners have come at odds of 19/1 or less.
\r\n\r\nSo when the Grand National comes around on Saturday afternoon you’re already in a much better position to make your own educated selections rather than a wild gamble.
\r\n\r\nBUT just remember… When a fat horse that is useless at Aintree, priced 75/1 and weighing 12st that was bred and trained in France wins by several lengths, we take no responsibility for your losing bets.
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