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2026 World Cup Final betting preview: Spain v Argentina

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The reigning world champions meet the European champions at the MetLife Stadium to decide the 2026 World Cup, with Spain and Argentina offering us a mouthwatering clash of styles.

Argentina are chasing true immortality, looking to become the first side since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back titles and cap off an unprecedented run of four consecutive major tournament trophies.

Standing in their way is a Spain team fresh from completely nullifying pre-tournament favourites France, with La Roja now holding the chance to complete a historic European Championship and World Cup double sixteen years after they first achieved the feat.

Argentina's route to East Rutherford has been a trademark blend of chaos, late drama, and pure grit. After surviving massive scares against Cape Verde, Egypt, and a ten-man Swiss side in extra time, Scaloni's men also had to do it the hard way again in Wednesday’s semi-final. 

They fell behind to an Anthony Gordon goal for England early in the second half before turning the game completely on its head late on, with Enzo Fernández equalising in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martínez coming off the bench to head home a dramatic 92nd-minute winner.

Spain have taken a wildly different, much more controlled path to the showpiece event. Since their opening-game blip against Cape Verde, Luis de la Fuente’s side have rattled off six straight wins, relying on late Mikel Merino interventions to edge past Portugal and Belgium before putting on a tactical clinic against France in the semi-finals.

A Mikel Oyarzabal penalty and a superb Pedro Porro strike completely choked the life out of Les Bleus, restricting them to a miserable 0.31 Expected Goals and securing Spain an incredible sixth clean sheet of the tournament.

History shows there is absolutely nothing to split these two powerhouses over the years. This is one of international football's most perfectly balanced rivalries, with both nations sitting on six wins apiece and two draws from their previous fourteen encounters. 

Surprisingly, they haven't faced each other on the World Cup stage for sixty years, dating all the way back to a 2-1 group-stage victory for Argentina in 1966. While the South Americans will want to completely erase the memory of their last friendly meeting, a 6-1 humiliation at the hands of Spain back in 2018, the stakes on Sunday night could not be more different.

Sunday's showpiece also throws up a generational clash for the ages. At 39 years young, Lionel Messi is playing what must surely be his final World Cup match, looking to bow out at the absolute pinnacle of the game (although we said exactly the same in Qatar in 2022, so who knows!) He goes head-to-head with Spain's 19-year-old prodigy Lamine Yamal, who celebrated his birthday on Monday, bringing their unbelievable story completely full circle from that famous UNICEF bathtub photoshoot nineteen years ago.

Team News and Lineups


Spain

Luis de la Fuente has a clean bill of health heading into the final. Lamine Yamal caused a brief panic when he missed training with strapping on his left thigh, but the teenager is fully expected to start.

Pedro Porro also complained of muscular fatigue after the France win, but his absence from practice was just a precaution.

In midfield, Fabián Ruiz and Rodri were absolutely dominant in the semi-final. That means Barcelona’s Pedri is likely to be confined to the bench once again.

Nico Williams has had to settle for substitute appearances recently but will be pushing Álex Baena hard for a start on the left flank.

  • Spain Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal


Argentina

Lionel Scaloni has his entire 26-man squad available. Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes both shook off cramps to start against England and came through the semi-final unscathed.

The biggest selection headache is in attack. Lautaro Martínez grabbed all the headlines with his stoppage-time winner against the Three Lions, but Julián Álvarez is expected to keep his starting spot alongside Messi.

Out wide, Rodrigo De Paul and Gonzalo Montiel are pushing for recalls after Giuliano Simeone and Nahuel Molina struggled against the English wingers.

  • Argentina Predicted Lineup (4-4-2): E. Martínez; Montiel, Romero, Li. Martínez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Fernández, Mac Allister; Messi, Álvarez


Spain vs Argentina preview

Spain have quietly gone about their business and morphed into an absolute defensive machine. They completely suffocated France in Dallas, restricting Kylian Mbappé and co. to a paltry 0.31 Expected Goals.

La Roja are now unbeaten in 37 straight matches. If they win on Sunday, they will surpass Italy to set a new record for the longest unbeaten run in senior men's international football. They've also kept six clean sheets at this World Cup, setting a new all-time best for a single tournament.

Argentina have taken a wildly different route. They have been shipping goals but simply outscoring everyone in their path. Scaloni's men have racked up a tournament-high 19 goals so far.

Messi has rolled back the years, leading from the front with eight goals and four assists. When England sat deep and invited pressure in the semi-final, Messi gleefully accepted the invitation, pulling the strings to orchestrate a devastating late comeback.

This final pits Spain's defensive majesty against Argentina's relentless firepower. De la Fuente's men have the tactical discipline to avoid the trap England fell into. If Rodri can dictate the tempo and Spain maintain their high line, they can starve Messi of the spaces he needs to operate. They proved against France that they can completely shut down world-class attacking talent, and they can do it again on Sunday.

Spain vs Argentina prediction

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