FIFA’s top-ranked nation, France, will be looking to celebrate Bastille Day in style as they square off against the reigning European champions, Spain, in a blockbuster World Cup semi-final. A coveted spot in Sunday’s showpiece final in New Jersey, where either England or Argentina await, is the ultimate prize.
Before we get bogged down in formations and heat maps, you have to look at the recent history between these two. Spain are well used to getting one over on their European neighbours, coming out on top in seven of their last ten meetings.
That run includes dumping France out of the Euro 2024 semi-finals on their way to lifting the trophy. It also features an absolutely bonkers 5-4 UEFA Nations League thriller last summer. Les Bleus fought back from 4-0 down that day, only to have their hearts broken by a late Lamine Yamal winner.
If Spain can avoid defeat in 90 minutes tonight, they will also match Italy's all-time international record of 37 consecutive matches unbeaten.
Team News and Lineups
France
Didier Deschamps withdrew Kylian Mbappe in the latter stages of the quarter-final win over Morocco following a minor ankle sprain. It was a heart-in-mouth moment, but the French captain is fully expected to lead the line tonight. He is currently tied with Lionel Messi on eight goals for the tournament, so the Golden Boot is well within his sights.
The main headache is in the middle of the park. Aurelien Tchouameni is back fit after a thigh issue. However, he faces an almighty task to break up the double-pivot of Adrien Rabiot and Manu Koné, who have shielded the back four brilliantly so far.
Further forward, Deschamps has a ridiculous array of talent to choose from. Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise are locked in to start, while Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola are battling for the final spot in an attacking quartet that has terrorised defences all tournament.
France Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Rabiot, Kone; Dembele, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe
Spain
Luis de la Fuente has some intriguing calls to make ahead of kick-off. Nico Williams made a massive impact off the bench against Belgium after recovering from a group-stage knock. He is now applying serious pressure on Alex Baena for a starting spot on the left wing.
In central midfield, Fabian Ruiz opened the scoring against the Belgians with a brilliant strike from distance. He will hope to keep his place alongside Rodri, although Pedri remains the traditional default option.
On the right, Lamine Yamal, who celebrated his 19th birthday on Monday, will be desperate to recapture his best form. The teenager has yet to truly catch fire at this World Cup, but he knows exactly what it takes to hurt France after his heroics in the Nations League.
Spain Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Williams; Oyarzabal
France vs Spain preview
The routes these two sides have taken to the semi-final tell you everything you need to know about their current form. France have been utterly ruthless. They’ve banged in 16 goals across their six matches and arrive in Texas having not conceded a single goal during the knockout stages, professionally seeing off Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco.
Spain have been equally stubborn at the back. Unai Simon went an incredible 649 minutes without conceding before Belgium finally breached their defence in the quarter-finals.
La Roja are now unbeaten in 36 consecutive matches, leaning heavily on back-to-back late rescue missions from super-sub Mikel Merino to scrape past Portugal and Belgium.
Spain will inevitably dominate the ball, as they boast a tournament-high 65.8% average possession, and look to suffocate France by winning it back high up the pitch.
Deschamps won't mind that one bit. France are averaging 5.3 direct counter-attacks per 90 minutes, the highest rate recorded at any major tournament since they went all the way in Russia eight years ago.
If Spain's press is even a fraction off, the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele will ruthlessly punish the space left behind attacking full-backs Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro.
It’s exactly why the 90-minute draw looks so appealing tonight. These are two elite defensive units who have conceded just three goals between them all tournament. With so much on the line and Spain proving they can grind out tight games, backing them to cancel each other out in normal time is the smart play.
However, a 0-0 draw feels highly unlikely given the sheer attacking quality on the pitch. Mbappe already has eight goals to his name, while Michael Olise has laid on five assists.
Both teams also found the net in their last two competitive meetings, Spain's 2-1 Euro 2024 win and that chaotic 5-4 Nations League clash last summer. With that in mind, combining the draw with both teams to score is worth a look.
France vs Spain predictions
- Draw at 11/5 (3.20) as tipped by VB Tips
- Draw and BTTS at 3/1 (4.00) as tipped by Football Value Best