If the first couple of weeks of the 2026 World Cup have shown us anything, it has been that football’s top strikers have hit the ground running in their quest to pick up the coveted Golden Boot award for top goalscorer on July 19th.
In the last 12 editions, the only players to have broken through the six-goal ceiling have been Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe, who bagged 8 goals apiece in the 2002 and 2022 tournaments respectively.
The way some of the world’s big guns (Mbappe included) have begun the 2026 version suggests that we could well have someone reaching double figures for the first time since Gerd Muller found the back of the net 10 times in six games at the 1970 event in Mexico.
The expansion of the tournament has completely rewritten the mathematics of the Golden Boot market, and with any team that makes the semi-finals now facing an eight-game schedule, the eventual winner, and maybe even one or two others, is highly likely to reach double figures, never mind breaching the traditional six-goal ceiling.
Factor in the influx of lower-ranked nations, and these elite strikers have prime opportunities for stat padding early in the tournament. A single hat-trick against a porous defence can effectively settle this market before the knockout stages even begin.
2026 World Cup top goalscorers and betting odds
Lionel Messi (5 goals)
- Latest Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
The defending champions arrived in North America with Lionel Messi still pulling the strings, and the little magician promptly helped himself to the tournament's first hat-trick in the opening 3-0 win against the North Africans. He added both goals in their subsequent 2-0 win over Austria, adding Messi to Just Fontaine (1958) and Jairzinho as the only players to score in six consecutive World Cup games.
With Argentina having already topped their group, the 39-year-old might be rested for the dead rubber against Jordan, although Messi would no doubt love to be given what would be a glorious chance to add to his tally.
Kylian Mbappe (4 goals)
- Latest Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
The reigning Golden Boot winner was understandably the bookmaker early favourite, and justified that tag with a brace of braces against Senegal and Iraq, and only Messi’s brilliance has nudged him from the top of the market.
France are favourite’s to go all the way, so it has to be expected that Mbappe will have plenty of chances to add to his lightning start, and maybe even overhaul Messi’s newly-created record.
Erling Haaland (4 goals)
- Latest Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Erling Haaland scored an incredible 16 goals during Norway’s 8-game qualifying campaign, and he has brought that same 2-goals-per-game ratio into the main event, bagging a brace in each of his team’s opening victories against Iraq and Senegal. Norway’s chances depend on The Manchester City star continuing to find the net, but in his current form they could emerge as one of the tournament’s dark horses.
Vinicius Jnr (4 goals)
- Latest Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Vinicius has finally caught the eye of the bookmakers but still represents good value if Brazil’s attacking mantra takes them into the latter stages. Vinicius got off the mark in a tricky opener against Morocco, before helping himself to another three during his side's comfortable 3-0 victories against Haiti and Scotland The Real Madrid winger remains the focal point of a mobile Brazilian attack, and his price perfectly reflects the balance between a deep tournament run and a highly favourable group stage schedule.
Jonathan David (4 goals)
- Latest Odds: 50/1 (51.00)
David’s hat-trick in Canada’s 6-0 dismantling of Qatar illustrates perfectly how a stellar performance against poor opponents can catapult a capable striker into Golden Boot contention. Canada have impressed early on, but whether they can go deep enough into the tournament for David to maintain his challenge remains to be seen, although he did his chances no harm by scoring his side's consolation goal within moments of coming on from the bench during their 2-1 defeat to Switzerland,
Deniz Undav (3 goals)
- Latest Odds: 33/1 (34.00)
Of the five players to have chalked up three goals so far, it has been Deniz Undav who has caught the eye, as the underrated supersub has also picked up two assists in barely more than an hour's gametime. Coming off the bench to grab a goal in Germany's opening goalfest, Undav was even more effective against Ivory Coast, equalising eight minutes after being introduced on the hour mark, and then grabbing the winner four minutes into stoppage time. If Germany go deep, he could make a mockery of his current price.
Harry Kane (2 goals)
- Latest Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Kane is one of 20+ players to have already bagged a couple of goals, with the England captain making an early statement by scoring twice before half-time in the thrilling 4-2 win in England's tricky opener against Croatia. In 2018, Kane effectively secured the Golden Boot by scoring a hat-trick in a 6-1 demolition of Panama, so after being snuffed out in England’s drab goalless draw against Ghana’s obdurate defending, he’ll be hoping for a repeat performance against the Central Americans.
- READ MORE: How to bet smart at the 2026 World Cup
Ronaldo (2 goals)
- Latest Odds: 22/1 (23.00)
Much has been said and written about Ronaldo’s selection to spearhead Portugal’s front line, but the 41-year-old silenced his critics with a scintillating display against underdogs Uzbekistan, scoring a brace to become the first ever player to score in six different World Cup tournaments. Whether he’ll be afforded the same chances against stiffer opposition remains to be seen, but given the openings his finishing is as good as ever.
Mikel Oyarzabal (2 goals)
- Latest Odds: 25/1 (26.00)
Spain’s number 10 came into the tournament in sensational form, having just led Real Sociedad to Copa del Rey glory while netting 15 times in La Liga this season.
Oyarzabal was not alone in drawing a blank in Spain's shock goalless draw against Cabo Verde, but he quickly put that right by scoring twice in the 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia.
Oyarzabal’s clinical finishing, combined with Spain’s ability to dominate possession and create endless chances still bodes well, plus he is also a designated penalty taker, which is always a massive bonus in this market.