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Winning $40m in a day - It's alright for some

On our semi-regular quest to find legitimate sports tipsters to separate them from the hundreds (and thousands) of fake tipsters / fraud handicappers on the good old internet, we thought an article could help explain a few things, and hopefully do two things:

  1. Show the reason tipstrr.com was set up
  2. Prevent punters from falling for scam services

Everyone knows there are tipsters and handicappers out there that don’t publish accurate results. Maybe they delete the odd losing tip here and there, or add winning tips to their record after the events have ended. There are instances though, where people do this literally ALL of the time. They build a site and hope that in time they’ll get people to pay for a membership. Of course, once paying, they’ll know they’ve been duped, but the service already has their money.

We had a bit of fun a while back, and made this video to highlight just what can happen if you don’t user verified tipsters (hint, you’ll be out of pocket).

The service we highlighted in the video for being somewhat ‘dodgy’, was AllStarSportsPicks.com. If you fancy a laugh, check out their site. The results are truly incredible, I’m sure you’ll agree.

We actually tried to report AllStarSportsPicks as a scam on Sports Handicapping Service Directory, Cappertek, but unfortunately, they said there was nothing suspicious about the site (huh?). It’s also worth noting that within minutes of making the complaint, we received a very defensive response from the guys at AllStarSportsPicks, almost as if they worked together and/or were the same people.

none of my business

In our email, we asked two pressing questions that should have been easy to answer

  1. “How is it possible to place the stakes that you’re suggesting in your results?”
  2. “What sort of staking plan, would have advise a stake of $1,000 at odds of 1.91, 2 days after a tip advised with a stake $1,350,000 of at odds of 19.00?”

You read that right, 5th April 2014, the service made 24 million dollars from a single bet after staking $1.35m on an 18/1 shot – we all know how easy it is to back a horse for $1m+ at odds of 18/1, right? That’s not all though, it was a really good day for them and their ‘members’, as they actually made more than $40m in total from three races that day, all at the same race meeting in Santa Anita:

The reply we received was laughable. We were mocked for ‘not understanding the industry’ and were told “there are other bookmakers than bet365 you know, lol”. We then asked which bookie accepted the bet, we didn’t get a reply.

Waiting for reply from scammer

It wasn’t all good on the 5th April 2014 though. Sure, they made $40,000,000+ from three races at Santa Anita, but they lost $4000 backing the Washington Wizards to win @ Chicago Bulls – what a nightmare (please don’t miss the sarcasm)

The World’s Craziest Staking Plan

It really has to be the worst staking plan we’ve ever seen, ever, by an absolute country mile. It’s pretty obvious to see it makes no sense at all, but we thought we’d break it down to make it even easier to understand.

For this example, we will say that we joined the service and started with a £10,000 bank. Not massive, but a pretty sizeable amount to get going. We’ve heard they’re good, so we’re going to back every bet they advise, starting on 5th April 2014. We feel confident, these guys are the best tipsters in the world, and now we get their tips!

We get an email with the tips, and there are 9 in total. The stakes are a little bit skewed, but we’ll deal with it, we’re versatile and can work stuff out, we’re good like that. After a lot of number crunching, we place our bets, based on the fact we’re willing to stake 20% of our betting bank on today’s selections, that’s a total of £2,000.

Event

Tip

Odds

Result

 Site Stake

 Site +/-

 Our Stake

 Our +/-

Horses

Coup De Grace

7.10

W

 $107k

 $650k

 £        27.15

 £165.60

NHL

Bruins

1.91

W

 $11k

 $10k

 £           2.79

 £2.54

Horses

Seeking Sherif

3.90

W

 $4,6m

 $13.4m

 £  1,179.56

 £3.4k

Horses

Kerrilynn

4.30

W

 $1.7m

 $5.6m

 £      437.56

 £1.4k

Horses

Patriots Rule

19.00

W

 $1.3m

 $24.3m

 £      343.58

 £6.2k

NCAAB

Florida -5

1.74

W

 $13.5k

 $ -10k

 £           3.44

-£3.44

NBA

Wizards

1.87

L

 $4.6k

 $-4k

£           1.17

-£1.17

NHL

Stars

2.30

L

 $7.7k

 $10k

 £           1.96

 £2.54

NBCAAB

Kentucky

1.91

W

 $11k

 $10k

 £           2.79

 £ 2.54

       

 $ 7.8m

 $44.1m

 £        2k

 £  11.2k

Doesn’t quite make much logical sense does it? You’ve got a £10k betting balance, and even risking 20% in a day (which is definitely on the high/risky side), they’re advising you bet £343.58 on a horse priced at 18/1, but just £1.17 on the ODDS-ON FAVOURITE in an NBA game. A £10,000 betting bank, and they’ve got you placing a fraction over £1 on an NBA game. ONE POUND. £1

Put simply, it is f****ng ludicrous. What’s worse is that a site like Cappertek would refuse to highlight such a blatant attempt at deception. They suggested we paid for the service to get proof.

Not Gonna Happen

What they’ve done is LITERALLY impossible

To record a win percentage of 76% backing odds around evens is as close to a statistical impossibility as you’ll get. You’re more likely to win the lottery and get struck by lightning at the exact same time than to win 5737 of 7563 bets. When you then add to the mix that their results include horses prices at 18/1 (and probably higher), pushing their average odds higher, the likelihood decreases even further. We’re saying you’d get this level of returns in1/1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 (ish) attempts.

Sports tipsters and handicappers come under scrutiny quite often when charging for their expertise, but there’s of course a logic and value to making extra income from your expertise. However, if you’ve recorded around $440m profit from your sports betting since November 2013, it’s safe to say, you can probably live pretty comfortably without the need to do it.  

We’re doing what we can at Tipstrr to provide transparent results for tipsters and handicappers that have nothing to hide, and genuinely want to make a profit for their members. We’ve got our comparison pages, and itemised results for every tipster so people can see what they’re getting if they follow/subscribe to a service on our site.

Friday, October 7, 2016