Aston Villa last won a Premier League match when beating Everton 1-0 away in mid-January 15, since when Unai Emery's side has recorded four draws and one loss to Wolves (0-2), distancing them from the Champions League spots.
They go into the weekend in 9th place, but all is not lost yet. England could be allowed to send five teams to the Champions League next season, making the 5th spot highly valuable this season. Aston Villa have 4 points to recover to reach that position.
Despite recent unsatisfactory results, Emery's side has a positive vibe for several reasons. On Wednesday night, they gave Liverpool a tough time in a match played in advance (ending 2-2) to maintain their strong home record that has seen them lose only one of their last 22 Saturday home matches in the Premier League (16 wins, 5 draws). The only defeat came against Arsenal in the season's opening game (0-2).
As for matches against London-based teams, Villa have experienced two different periods under their current manager. Between April 2023 and February 2024, they won 10 matches in a row. However, in the following 15 matches, they’ve managed only 4 wins (6 draws, 5 losses).
The hosts have some notable absentees at the moment. Pau Torres, Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara, and Ross Barkley are all injured. Ezri Konsa and Leon Bailey are also doubtful, while Axel Disasi, on loan from Chelsea, is ineligible to play.
On the attacking side, the team is more dynamic with recent signings like Malen, Marco Asensio, and Marcus Rashford. Although Rashford hasn't scored yet since his loan from Manchester United, he has an impressive record against Chelsea, having scored four goals in eight appearances in United's home games against the Blues.
Chelsea are just one point behind the Top 4 but have been quite inconsistent recently. They have lost four of their last eight Premier League matches, which is more than in the previous 32! Although they were once in second place, trailing leaders Liverpool, they are now in 6th, 10 points behind second-placed Arsenal.
Chelsea’s last two away matches have ended badly, with defeats and 3 goals conceded in each: 1-3 against Manchester City and 0-3 against Brighton. At the Amex, Chelsea failed to register a single shot on target, a stat they hadn't seen since September 2021.
Not long ago, Chelsea were one of the strongest away teams, but after a thrilling 4-3 win over Tottenham in early December, Palmer & Co. have only earned 2 points in five attempts on their travels. The main issue has been their attack, where they once excelled. They have only scored 2 goals in those five matches, compared to an average of 2.3 goals per match in their first 10 away games.
A key stat to highlight is that Moisés Caicedo has received a yellow card in three of his last four appearances.
Chelsea’s injury list is quite significant. Noni Madueke, Nicolas Jackson, Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman, Romeo Lavia, Marc Guiu, Benoit Badiashile, and Mykhaylo Mudryk are all sidelined due to various injury issues.
In terms of head-to-head, Aston Villa have won only two of their last 11 home Premier League matches against Chelsea (with two draws and seven losses). Currently, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last four direct encounters (including two FA Cup games). In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Chelsea triumphed 3-0, with goals from Jackson, Fernandez, and Palmer.
Betting Suggestions:
- Aston Villa to win or draw – Given Chelsea's inconsistency and Villa's strong home form, betting on Aston Villa to win or draw seems like a solid option. This could be a value bet, especially considering Villa’s recent performance against strong teams.
- Total goals over 2.5 – With both teams possessing offensive threats but also defensive vulnerabilities, over 2.5 goals could be a good bet, especially after Chelsea's recent high-scoring games.
- Marcus Rashford to score anytime – Rashford has a good record against Chelsea and could break his duck since moving to Villa, making him a potential scorer in this fixture.
- Moises Caicedo to get a yellow card – Caicedo has been booked in three of his last four matches, and given the high stakes and intensity of the game, another yellow card here is worth considering.