*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
Diego Simeone and his team aim to defy history and secure their first-ever qualification over their fierce Madrid rivals in the UEFA Champions League. So far, Atlético Madrid has fallen short every time in this prestigious competition against their capital opponents.
In the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid won 2-1, marking the 10th encounter between the Galacticos and the Colchoneros in the UCL. Now, the 11th meeting is upon us, but the statistics heavily favor Los Blancos. Out of the previous 10 encounters, Real Madrid won six times, Atlético secured two victories, and there were two draws. No matter the stage—whether knockout rounds or finals—Real Madrid have always come out on top.
Real Madrid have upper hand against Atletico in Europe
The two teams first met in European competition during the semifinals of the 1958/1959 European Cup, but more recently their next European encounter came in the 2014 UEFA Champions League final in Lisbon, where Real Madrid needed extra time to secure their "La Décima" (10th title).
In the 2014/2015 Champions League quarterfinals, it ended 0-0 at Atlético's ground, and Real won 1-0 in the return leg at home. Another meeting in the 2016/2017 semifinals saw Real Madrid win 3-0 at the Bernabéu and Atlético's 2-1 victory in the return leg, sending Real Madrid to another final, which they won for the 12th time in Cardiff against Juventus.
The only time Atlético triumphed over Real in Europe was in the 2018 UEFA Super Cup, when they won 4-2 after extra time (2-2 in regulation).
Real Madrid's struggles with narrow first-leg victories in Europe
While Real Madrid has historically had the upper hand against Atlético in European competitions, their overall record when winning the first leg at home by a narrow margin is not as strong. They’ve been in this situation five times before, progressing only once—in the 2014 quarterfinals against Bayern Munich under Carlo Ancelotti. In the other four instances (against Juventus in 1996, 2003, and 2005, and against Bayern Munich in 2007), Real Madrid was eliminated after the second leg.
On the other hand, Atlético Madrid has progressed 11 times out of 17 when losing the first leg away by a single goal. Under Simeone, they have achieved remarkable comebacks against Bayer Leverkusen, Barcelona, and Inter, with their only recent elimination in a similar scenario coming against Manchester City.
This match will be the 301st all-time meeting between the two fierce rivals. Of the previous 300 matches, Real Madrid has won 154, Atlético has triumphed 74 times, and there have been 72 draws.
Atletico's recent home form against Madrid neighbours
This season, the two Madrid giants have already met three times: two league encounters (both ending 1-1) and the first leg of the UCL Round of 16, which Real Madrid won 2-1. Five of the last six meetings and seven of the last nine have ended in draws after regular time.
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 home matches, winning nine and drawing once, against Atlético in February. In the Champions League, they’ve lost only once in their last 18 home games, 1-3 to Milan in this season's competition.
Atlético have won only once in their last four home games against Real Madrid in regulation time. Real Madrid won once, and two matches ended in draws, one of which went to extra time, where Atlético eventually triumphed.
Atletico looking to bounce back from Getafe setback
Between the two Champions League encounters, the teams experienced different results. While Real Madrid secured a 2-1 victory against Rayo Vallecano at home, Atlético suffered a surprising 1-2 loss to their favourite victims, Getafe. This marked Simeone’s first defeat against Getafe in 28 matches (22 wins, 5 draws), a side he had previously dominated. After that loss, Atlético dropped to second place in La Liga, allowing Real Madrid to equal Barcelona's points total, as Barcelona's game against Osasuna was postponed.
Atlético enter this crucial clash with just one win in their last four official matches (one draw and two losses). In contrast, Real Madrid have won five of their last six official matches, with only one loss in their last 10.
However, Atlético remain unbeaten in their last 12 home games, winning 10 and drawing two. Real Madrid have lost just two of their last 13 away games in all competitions, with two draws and nine victories. In the Champions League, Real Madrid have won all three of their most recent away games (against Atalanta, Brest, and Manchester City).
INJURY UPDATE
For Real Madrid, Antonio Rudiger and Thibaut Courtois, who missed the Rayo Vallecano match, will be back for this clash. Dani Carvajal, Vallejo, Éder Militão, and Dani Ceballos are still unavailable.
Atlético will be missing Koke for sure, with Rodrigo De Paul and Clément Lenglet still uncertain.
Betting Suggestions
- Real Madrid to win – Given their strong historical record against Atlético in the UCL and recent form, Real Madrid are the likely favourites to secure a victory.
- Both teams to score (Yes) – Both teams have had a tendency to score in recent encounters, with Atlético often finding the back of the net in these clashes.
- Real Madrid to win by 1 goal – With several recent close encounters, Real Madrid winning by a narrow margin is a strong possibility.
- Over 2.5 goals – Considering the attacking quality of both teams and their history of high-scoring games, this match could see more than two goals.