*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
Bayern: Title Race Still Alive
Bayern Munich are in the driving seat to clinch their 34th Bundesliga title whilst also fighting for a spot in the Champions League semifinals, despite Tuesday 2–1 home loss to Inter in the first leg of their quarter-final.
This is Bayern’s best domestic season in the last 7 years. With 68 points after 28 rounds, they’re only one point shy of their 2017-2018 total at the same stage, and historically, whenever Bayern have accrued 68+ points after 28 rounds, they’ve gone on to lift the title.
They boast the strongest home form in the league: 12 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, collecting 37 points. Their only home defeat came unexpectedly against Bochum, a match where Bayern led 2–1 at halftime and missed a penalty.
Attack, Defence, and Star Power
Bayern remain the most prolific attacking side in the Bundesliga, scoring 81 goals—46 of them at home. Their average ball possession of 69.5% is the highest in the league, followed by Dortmund at 60.4%.
Harry Kane is leading the race for the Golden Boot with 23 goals and 8 assists, while Jamal Musiala (12 goals, 2 assists) and Leroy Sané (9 goals, 4 assists) are also in top form. In midfield, Michael Olise has been a revelation, contributing 8 goals and 10 assists— heading towards a Bundesliga record for most assists in a debut season, only behind James Rodríguez (11).
Defensively, Bayern also boat the strongest back line, conceding less than one goal per game. However, they are currently stretched thin due to injuries: Neuer, Coman, and Pavlović are out until late April, Musiala is expected back in early May, and Upamecano is done for the season.
Dortmund: Underdogs With Bite
Despite being 8th in the table with 41 points (12 wins, 5 draws, 11 losses), Dortmund come in with some confidence, having gone unbeaten in their last four matches against Bundesliga leaders, with 1 win and 3 draws—Dortmund’s longest unbeaten run in such fixtures.
Their away form remains poor, with just 14 points collected on the road. Still, they’ve picked up 12 points from their last 6 matches—only behind Bayern (13) and Leverkusen (15) over the same stretch.
Dortmund have a +9 goal difference, with 52 goals scored (only 18 away). They’ve hit their attacking stride lately, netting 3 against Mainz and 4 against Freiburg in back-to-back rounds. Guirassy leads their scoring chart with 15 goals and 2 assists, followed by Gittens with 8 goals and 3 assists.
Defensive Woes and UCL Blow
Dortmund's defence remains shaky—43 goals conceded, 26 of those away from home. After a morale-crushing 4–0 loss at Barcelona in the UCL, it’s unlikely they’ll progress to the semifinals, despite the match being closer than the final score suggested.
Injury-wise, Dortmund are without key players: centre-back Schlotterbeck and midfielder Sabitzer are both sidelined for the rest of the season.
Head-to-Head History
This will be the 137th Bundesliga clash between the two giants—Der Klassiker. Bayern have lost more games to Dortmund (33) than any other opponent. Interestingly, this is the first time since 2017 that Bayern have gone two straight league games without beating Dortmund.
Top Betting Tips:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes– Bayern have scored in every home game, while Dortmund’s attack has clicked recently, scoring 7 goals in their last two.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals– With two high-scoring sides and some key defensive absentees, expect goals.
- Harry Kane to Score Anytime– Bundesliga’s top scorer, playing at home, and involved in most of Bayern’s attacking output.
- Bayern Win & Over 2.5 Goals (Combo Bet) – Bayern are strong at home and need the win to keep Leverkusen at bay.
- Guirassy to Have 1+ Shot on Target– In form and Dortmund’s key goal threat.