Profitable tipster dkbet provides an interesting blog that explains the basics of establishing value in sports betting. You hear the word "value" used so frequently by sports bettors, but it is very common to see the term being used incorreclty. A value bet is a sports bet with odds that suggest the chance or success is LESS than your percieved chance of success.
\r\n\r\ndkbet explains...
\r\n\r\nWhen you search the web for information regarding betting, you might very often find the expression Value Bet. But what does it exactly mean and how can you use it in your own betting? The important part of find value is to know how you calculate possible value.
\r\n\r\nLet's take a simple example for the Premier League fixture on Sunday 20th March 2016 - Manchester City vs Manchester United.
\r\n\r\nThe market for Asian Handicap Manchester City -0.5 is average 1.85 and highest price is 1.87 (188BET & BetVictor Friday 18th 22:00). To find out if there is any value in this price, we have to take a look at the probability for this outcome of the match. Before looking at the market you must have made your own probability for the Manchester City win. To translate the price to a probability we need to do the following;
\r\n\r\n- \r\n
- 1.00 divided by the price (1.87) for Manchester City to win = 0.5347 \r\n
- 0.5347 = 53,47% \r\n
We now have the information that the price for a Manchester City win 1.87 is the same as 53,47% probability
\r\n\r\nIf you have calculated a probability higher than 53,47% you have found a value bet. Let's say you had 55% for probability for Manchester City to win, we can do the calculation using the same method as above. But we do not have the price now which means we have to do it backwards;
\r\n\r\n- \r\n
- 1.00 divided by the probability (55%) for Manchester City to win = 1.82 ! (this is the price you would expect from your 55% probability). \r\n
This might look very difficult if you are not used to do these calculations. But as in school we will of course provide another way to calculate it very simpel and skipping the middle calculation.
\r\n\r\nValue = (price * probability) / 100
\r\n\r\nWhen we use this formula it is possible to see if there is value very easily. As long as the result will be higher than 1,00 you have value. The higher the number you get the more value you have found. How to find the probability for the outcome will depend on a lot of factors, but you need to find the best way for yourself to do your matrix.
\r\n\r\nThe example with 55% probability you have for Manchester City to win can be used in the formula.
\r\n\r\nValue = (1,87 * 55) /100 = 1,0285
\r\n\r\nIn this case you have a valuebet of 2,85%, meaning you will get an average of €102.85 returnes from an average investment of €100. A 2.85% Return on Investment
\r\n\r\nI hope this has helped you to understand what value betting is.
\r\n\r\nGood luck with your betting.
\r\n\r\n/dkbet