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Euro 2020 - Who needs what in the final group games

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We take a look at who needs what in the final group games at Euro2020

The group stages at Euro 2020 have reached the business end and the next four action-packed days will decide who will progress to the last 16 and which eight teams will be booking an early flight home.

With the best four third-placed teams qualifying alongside the top two for the knockout rounds, almost every team's hopes are very much alive, because it could well be that three points for a last-game win will be enough to go through. Goal difference will prove crucial as well, of course, and that includes for teams who have already qualified, because finishing top or second will determine which path each team takes through the knockout phase. 

With all that in mind, here's a round-up of all the groups and a breakdown of each team's position and what they need to do in their final game to escape their group.  

Group A

Sunday 20th June 5pm kickoff
Italy v Wales (Rome)
Switzerland v Turkey (Baku)
  • Italy (6pts) have already qualified for the knockout stage and they will win the group if they avoid defeat against Wales on Sunday
  • Wales (4pts) already have enough points in the bag to make at least a third-place qualifier, while a draw will assure them of second place, and a win would actually see them leapfrog Italy to top the group.
  • Switzerland (1pt) need a win against Turkey to challenge for a third-place qualifying position with Wales (goal difference being the decising factor) - a draw would condemn both teams to elimination as two drawn points will be insufficient for the Swiss to progress.
  • Turkey (0pts) could still sneak into the knockout stage if they manage their first win of the tournament, but their poor goal difference means they require a hefty winning margin and would still need other groups to work out in their favour.

Odds to win Euro 2020

Team Odds
Italy 6/1
Wales 80/1
Switzerland 80/1
Turkey 1000/1

Group B

Monday 21st June 8pm kickoff
Finland v Belgium (St Petersburg)
Russia v Denmark (Copenhagen)
  • Belgium (6pts) have already qualified for the knockout stage and their simple equation is that they will win the group if they avoid defeat against Finland.
  • Russia (3pts) need a a draw against Denmark to qualify in second or third place, but a loss could see them eliminated if Finland avoid defeat.
  • Finland (3pts) need a point to qualify in second or third place, and could finish top if they beat Belgium by three goals. At the same time, a heavy defeat could condemn them to bottom place if Denmark beat Russia
  • Denmark (0pts) will be eliminated with anything less than a win, which would be enough to see them leapfrog into second place if Finland lose to Belgium, although goals will then become  the decisive factor.  

Odds to win Euro2020

Team Odds
Belgium 7/1
Russia 100/1
Finland 400/1
Denmark 50/1

Group C

Monday 21st June 5pm kickoff
North Macedonia v Netherlands (Amsterdam)
Ukraine v Austria (Bucharest)
  • Netherlands (6pts) have already won the group as they have already beaten Ukraine and Austria, both of whom can only draw level on points with a win in their clash.   
  • Ukraine (3pts) need a draw to ensure second spot, as they are already ahead of Austria on goals scored. Defeat would leave Ukraine sweating on a negative goal difference being enough to clinch a third-placed qualifying spot.
  • Austria (3pts) are behind Ukraine on goals scored and so would need to beat them to go second, and while a draw would leave them in third place, they would surely go through with 4 points. defeat could well see them facing elimination.
  • North Macedonia (0pts) are sadly out of the tournament already because they have lost to both Ukraine and Austria, so even a win against Netherlands will leave them bottom on head-to head.

Odds to win Euro2020

Team Odds
Netherlands 12/1
Ukraine 80/1
Austria 100/1
North Macedonia N/A

Group D

Tuesday 22nd June 8pm kickoff
Croatia v Scotland (Hampden)
Czech Republic v England (Wembley)
  • Czech Republic (4pts) will top the group if they avoid defeat at Wembley and should already have enough points to qualify even if they lose, although they could slip to third if either Croatia or Scotland win their clash and swing the goal difference.
  • England (4pts) already have enough points in the bag to make at least a third-place qualifier, but they need to win to top the group as a draw will keep them behind the Czechs on goal difference.
  • Croatia (1pt) need a win against Scotland to make at least third place and possibly second if they win and Czech Republic lose by a large enough goal swing. A draw will secure third place but two points will not be enough to make a third-place qualifier.
  • Scotland (1pt) need to win as even a draw will keep them in bottom spot on goal difference. A victory might see them leapfrog a losing England into second spot on goal difference, but at the worst that should give them enough points to qualify in third place.

Odds to win Euro2020

Team Odds
Czech Republic 80/1
England 15/2
Croatia 66/1
Scotland 250/1

Group E

Wednesday 23rd June 5pm kickoff
Slovakia v Spain (Seville)
Sweden v Poland (St Petersburg)
  • Sweden (4pts) are in the driving seat and will finish top if they win or if both games are drawn. A draw would assure them of at least second place, while the lowest they could finish is third if they lose and there is a winner in the Spain-Slovakia game.
  • Slovakia (3pts) can win the group if they win and Sweden don't, while a draw will assure them of second place. However, they could also be eliminated if they lose to Spain and Poland beat Sweden.
  • Spain (2pts) Could end up in any position in this group. A win should see them top the group if Sweden fail to beat Poland, but a draw will only see them stay in third place if Poland fail to beat Sweden, and even then three drawn points might not be enough to make a third-place qualifier.
  • Poland (1pt) need to beat Sweden to qualify, in which case they will go above Sweden on head-to-head, but the best they can finish is second, as any result in the other game will put either Slovakia or Spain above them.

Odds to win Euro2020

Team Odds
Spain 9/1
Sweden 66/1
Poland 200/1
Slovakia 300/1

Group F

Wednesday 23rd June 8pm kickoff
Germany v Hungary (Munich)
Portugal v France (Budapest)
  • France (4pts) will top the group if they beat Portugal, but could slip to third if they lose and Germany beat Hungary. A draw could be enough to stay top if Hungary avoid defeat against the Germans.
  • Germany (3pts) need a point to qualify in at least third place and will finish top if they beat Hungary and Portugal avoid defeat against France. However, if Portugal do avoid defeat and Germany lose, then the Germans will be out.
  • Portugal (3pts) will leapfrog France with a win, and will then win the group if Germany fail to beat Hungary. By the same token, a defeat could see them eliminated if Hungary win, but a draw should see them through in third place no matter what the outcome of the other game.
  • Hungary (1pt) need to win to climb above Germany and should then progress as at least a third-place qualifier. Indeed a win would see them go second if Portugal lose to France, and they could also go second if France lose or draw, but there would then have to be a significant swing in goal difference. 

Odds to win Euro2020

Team Odds
France 7/2
Germany 6/1
Portugal 17/2
Hungary 1000/1

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