12.05pm - Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle
This is a real cracker of a contest, and probably the one race I am most looking forward to watching come Saturday. We get to see the two leading UK Triumph Hurdle contenders, Sir Gino for Nicky Henderson and Burdett Road for James Owen, both unbeaten over hurdles but have slightly different back stories in racing.
I will be siding with Burdett Road here, purely on the fact he has more experience on the track, both over hurdles and on the flat (he was a Royal Ascot winner), so clearly has plenty of talent. Sir Gino does look to be a weapon also in his own right, but his jumping last time could make him vulnerable to Burdett Road here, especially at Cheltenham.
Granted Burdett Road didn't jump with much consistency last time, but the manner in which James Owen's horse flew up the Cheltenham Hill last time when virtually going from last to first in a matter of strides, was a thing of beauty.
He has a real genuine engine and we are yet to even scratch the surface on that front, plus Cheltenham suits him perfectly and he will take a whole world of beating here come Saturday.
Naturally Sir Gino will have his fans/backers, and I can ultimately see him maybe going off favourite at the off, but he would have to really be on his A-game to beat an in-form and classy rival in Burdett Road, who is ultimately the current market leader for the Triumph Hurdle in March.
If he were to win here Saturday, and win nicely, then he will be the resounding favourite for the opening race on the Friday of the Festival. This is a race I really can't wait to watch unfold.
12.40pm - Timeform Novices Handicap Chase
This is a really tricky contest, and I am a huge fan of Ginny's Destiny, and the form of his last Cheltenham win has been really franked with Grey Dawning winning a Grade 2 at Warwick since, but you could argue the Paul Nicholls horse was slightly fortunate to win that day, and he does have to carry a fair bit of weight around here on Saturday.
With that being said, I really like the look of Blow Your Wad, who has some decent chase debut form also, and connections wasted no time in getting him over the larger obstacles. He was 2nd on his chase debut at Sandown, and although he was beaten by 10 lengths, he was beaten by La Patron who has since won the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown, and the form in behind him for that race has been franked with the 3rd coming out and winning a Grade 2 since.
When you really dive into that form, it is rock solid and Blow Your Wad came 2nd to La Patron, on just his first ever chase run. He put that experience to good use next time out when winning a decent chase contest at Kempton on Boxing day, winning by just under 2 lengths and keeping on well as they went to the line.
He is yet to run at Cheltenham, but the way he won at Kempton last time would suggest Prestbury Park should pose no issues - he looks a nice chasing type for the in-form Tom Lacey and Stan Sheppard combination.
1.15pm - Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase
Another really nice contest that could be won by multiple time champion trainer Paul Nicholls, and it is one of his runners that I am going to side with here.
Il Ridoto ran a cracker at Cheltenham last time, when coming 2nd behind Fugitif in the December Gold Cup, and indeed looked the most likely winner before being headed in literally the closing strides.
He runs so well in these big-field handicaps, and I remember early on in his racing days he was touted to be another top-class graded animal to come from the Ditcheat yard, but that didn't materialise, but he is still a classy sort in these fields.
He has some decent form at Cheltenham, winning there once and placing on multiple different occasions. He does have a 5lb raise in the weights to deal with here, but that is fair given how he pretty much led most of the way up the hill.
Harry Cobden takes over from Bryony Frost on Saturday, and Harry is riding the crest of the wave at the moment as he looks to bridge the gap between him and Sean Bowen, who currently heads the jockey championship title.
1.50pm - Grade 2 Paddy Power Cotswold Chase
This is a real trappy race, as all six of the runners could realistically win this contest. Royale Pagaille brings in the Grade 1 form to this field, but I feel his form is a little hit and miss outside of Haydock, and he would need a real stamina test in testing conditions, so the current predicted going of good to soft might not suit him here.
Therefore I will be siding with Datsalrightgino who will have much more to offer over this sort of trip going forward. He was an awesome winner of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time, and his trainer and jockey are in top form at present still, with both of them providing winners every few days.
That effort at Newbury last time was probably a career-high success for the horse, and he is definitely worthy of taking a chance in this Grade 2 contest as he is still improving with each passing run over fences. On ratings he is not far off these at all, and although he had an 11lb rise in the weights from that Newbury win last time, I think he proved then that he is a Graded chaser.
He was a Grade 2 winner at Ayr in his last novice chase of the season last term, so he has proven he can mix it up at this level. He is a potential young contender for the Gold Cup in the making, as he stays for days and jumps with real fluency. He is the young improver in this contest on Saturday, and I feel he is more than good enough to land a contest of this nature before maybe trying his hand in a Grade 1 contest soon.
2.25pm - Grade 1 My Pension Expert Clarence House Chase
This race completely revolves around Jonbon, who will take on rivals here who are probably not in his league. It is a real shame that we don't get to see the El Fabiolo clash that was expected last weekend; however, it is understandable why Willie Mullins has kept his superstar over in Ireland for the Dublin Racing Festival (prize money, easy travel for the horse etc).
As mentioned Jonbon is the best horse in the line-up by some distance, and although Editeur Du Gite won the re-arranged contest at this venue last season, that was in completely different conditions with the ground being soft. Jonbon has already beaten him twice this season also, in the Grade 2 Shloer Chase at this venue, as well as the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last time.
Although Jonbon probably wasn't as impressive to the eye in the Tingle Creek last time, he still won going away up the Sandown hill in very testing conditions. There have been suggestions that Jonbon operates better on a sounder surface, and although that might be correct to an extent, especially at Cheltenham as it helps with his jumping.
His Racing Post Rating from the Tingle Creek was the second-highest he has put in in his career. That RPR was 171, and his career best came in the run before with the rating of 172, a very similar rating to his rival El Fabiolo, who has posted a RPR of 173 previously which is a career high best for him.
This season we are seeing a new, different Jonbon, who looks more mature and focused when racing, which ultimately means his jumping is a lot better. I think he will slot in here on Saturday, before heading to the Champion Chase in March with a real chance to land the feature 2-mile prize there.
3.00pm - Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle
Another Graded contest on this fantastic Cheltenham card for their trials day, with Willie Mullins bringing his wonderful grey Lossiemouth, who has an excellent hurdling record of 5 wins in just 6 career runs, which includes two Grade 1's, and more importantly the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season.
She is a really talented individual, and while her plans this season have not exactly been set in stone, if she were to do the business up in this contest, then her connections sights would firmly be set on having a go at Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.
She does have a 273+ day break to overcome on Saturday, and will take on race-fit hurdlers here, with some decent Graded form to boot, but I feel she is just the best horse in the race and is most likely to improve with each passing run now she is out of Novice company.
It will be fascinating to see how she gets on come Saturday, and given she has Grade 1 form and a Cheltenham win to boot, she is certainly the one they all have to beat in this on Saturday.
3.35pm - Grade 2 McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle
This is all about Paisley Park for me, who I have put up at a decent price for the stayers hurdle in March (Jake Russell's ante-post tips for Grade 1 races on Day Three at the Festival), the wonderful servant to the staying hurdle division still looks to have plenty of fire in his belly, with two very good efforts this season, although they were in defeat, he still came 2nd on both attempts and was only beaten by a head and a short head.
He was a very good 2nd behind Dashel Drasher on his first start this season in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle, before going on to looking like the winner throughout in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last time, only to get nabbed on the line by a horse half his age, going down on his sword by a short head.
The one thing I have noticed with Emma Lavelle's superstar is the fact he hasn't hit his customary flat spot during the race on his two runs this year, which so far has looked to be a good thing for him as he has run very well on his two starts this season.
If he can go on to land this contest on Saturday, he will shorten slightly in the betting for the Stayers’ Hurdle, but will still be a decent enough price come March.
4.10pm - Grade 2 SSS Super Alloys Novices Hurdle
Again this is probably another contest that does look to be fairly cut-and-dried, with Gidleigh Park looking the most likely winner here, after impressing for Harry Fry in his two hurdle runs so far. He is a big beast of a horse who will ultimately jump a fence in time, so anything he does this season will be a clear bonus for connections.
A 7 and a half length winner at Exeter on his hurdle debut, that form has been franked with Range, who was 2nd that day, since going on to win nicely at Chepstow.
The Harry Fry prospect then went on to line up at Newbury, where he beat a very nice field by 9 lengths, posting a tidy RPR of 135 in the process, which is very good considering it is just his 2nd ever run over hurdles.
I know connections have high hopes for this horse, and so far he has looked a really nice type. He takes the step up in class for the very first time here, and if he is to be a genuine Festival contender he would have to dot up in this, just like the market suggests he will.
Jake’s best best summary:
- 12.05 Burdett Road (5/6)
- 12.40 Blow Your Wad (5/1)
- 13.15 Il Ridoto (10/3)
- 13.50 Datsalrightgino (5/1)
- 14.25 Jonbon (1/3)
- 15.00 Lossiemouth (8/13)
- 15.35 Paisley Park (5/2)
- 16.10 Gidleigh Park (Evens)
Previews and tips provided by @ Jake Russell