2.05pm Wincanton - Grade 2 Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle
I feel this is a really difficult race to decipher, especially for the first race of the ITV7, as there are a few question marks on each runner for various different reasons.
I really like Nemean Lion as a horse, but I am unsure whether he will actually want this 2-mile trip, as he was running on well over 2m5f in the Lanzarote last time, plus he was also entered up in a race at Haydock which was also up in trip, but they decide to go for this instead.
Colonel Mustard has run well in Grade 1 contests but has only won once over obstacles in 16 runs, therefore I land on Paul Nicholls' Rubaud, who is in decent form this season and has gone slightly under the radar recently.
A winner of both of his first two starts this season, which includes a win in a Listed Hurdle at Kempton and the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle over this course and distance, he was then a very decent 2nd in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over the Xmas period, but was very well beaten by a certain Constitution Hill by a little under 2 lengths.
Although well beaten that day, he still placed in a Grade 1 contest and holds Grade 2 winning form. So let’s draw a line through that run last time, I don't think going left-handed at Cheltenham is his bag yet, plus he wouldn't have landed a glove on Lossiemouth anyway.
Back at a track where he won a Grade 2 earlier on in the season, I think he is definitely the safest option to side with here. A nice ride for Lorcan Williams, as he will look to land his third ever Grade 2.
2.25pm Ascot - Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle
This is a really competitive affair, and although I don't particularly do so well in terms of picking the winner of a race of this nature, I really like the look of Bad for Ben Pauling.
Coming into this season I was really keen on him landing a very good handicap hurdle or two, and although that hasn't quite materialised as yet, now that his wind has been tinkered with, I think that could bring a little bit of improvement out of him. You are taking a risk on whether the wind op will work, but judging by how he was on and off when running last time, might suggest there were a few little issues with his breathing.
He was a previous winner in France, and was pitched straight into the Boodles on his first run for the new yard. He did disappoint, and probably has done since, but he has run some very good placed efforts this season, which includes two 3rds at Ascot and a 2nd at Newbury, still running off the same mark as two previous runs this season.
He takes the step up in trip for the first time in the UK, and although his previous runs might not have shown that will suit, I feel now after the wind op, he could take a real step forward and run well in a contest of this nature on Saturday.
I am still convinced there is a decent handicap win in Bad this season, and the fact connections pitched him straight into the Boodles on his first run for new connections, with Rachael Blackmore booked to ride at the time, speaks volumes. He was 5/1 in the market also, so that shows a fair bit of confidence behind the horse, and if he can put it all together on Saturday, he should run well.
2.40pm Haydock - Grade 2 Virgin Bet Rendlesham Hurdle
There is no denying Botox Has is probably the best horse in this field, and ratings suggest that, but his record isn't great when running with cheekpieces, and he only seems to do his best running fresh, so he doesn't usually win this time of year.
However, the booking of Caolin Quinn is always a huge plus, he is a brilliant rider, especially on a Gary Moore-trained runner. With that in mind, and one eye on the weather forecast, in typical Haydock fashion it looks as if the ground will be quite testing, so I shall be siding with Red Risk for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost.
Although winless since November 2022 in a handicap hurdle contest at the odds of 20/1, the key for this horse is the ground, as he quite clearly acts on soft or heavy, or even worse than that. He has won 4 times previously on soft or worse, and that does include two wins in France on very soft going, and we all know how they describe their ground goings most days.
Although he hasn't won since November 2022, he has run well in some good contests this season, a 2nd behind Botox Has in the West Yorkshire Hurdle, which is a Grade 2 affair, he was only beaten a length by a horse who goes well fresh, Red Risk always staying on well heading to the line where he just unfortunately couldn't get up in time.
His run last time in the Long Walk Hurdle wasn't particularly great, but that was on the unfavoured good going, and although he has previously won on better ground conditions, that was a little while ago so clearly the softer the better for this French import.
I think given how wide open this race is, and the fact any of the six runners could win it, it could pay to side with a horse who likes the ground and arrives into this race off the back of a 56-day break. He seems to run well fresh, and I would imagine this has been the plan for the horse for a little while now, Paul Nicholls is the best in the game for plotting a winning route for his horses.
3.00pm Ascot - Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase
This is another really cracking, competitive contest, and although I do like Threeunderthrufive for the Ultima at the Festival next month, I feel if he was to win at Ascot on Saturday he would have to carry an almighty weight in that contest, so I hope he doesn't win this weekend.
That being said, I really like the chances of Venetia Williams's Victtorino, who holds some decent form at Ascot this season, winning two handicap chases off marks of 138 and 142 respectively. He won the first one by an easy 6 lengths, and although not so visually impressive the next time, he still won in game fashion by three quarters of a length to a fast finishing Irish raider of Gavin Cromwell's.
I think ultimately you can draw a line through the last run, as that was in completely different circumstances to his two previous wins, as he was going left-handed around Cheltenham at the trip of 2m4f, which just clearly didn't suit him. He was well fancied that day, and was disappointing, but I feel back over the 3-mile trip at Ascot, where he has won twice this season, we will see him to best effect once again.
He is still running off the mark of 146, the same as his last run at Cheltenham, and this run on Saturday will be only his fifth ever start for Venetia Williams, so I would imagine they are still actually trying to work the horse out. He is clearly a 3-miler, and his running style really does suit Ascot. Although now operating off a career high mark still, he will be the one to beat for me, in a similar race to his past two at this venue.
3.07pm Wincanton - Jenningsbet Chippenham Handicap Chase
This isn't the greatest contest in truth, with most of these having not won in a few runs. With that in mind I will be looking to side with Dreaming Blue for Anthony Honeyball and Ben Godfrey, who is a really good jockey that deserves many more good rides and his 3lb claim is a steal.
He looked to be back in form when coming 3rd at Ludlow in December, and although he couldn't back that decent effort up last time, it looked as if the 3-mile trip did stretch him out a little too much. Back down to 2m4f here, with headgear back on, he could go a few places better than that decent effort at Ludlow two runs ago.
One thing to note as well, he was a winner over this trip at Doncaster last March, off the mark of 113, which is the exact same mark he is on here, and with Ben's 3lb claim here, he is technically 3lbs lower than his last winning mark, as Rex Dingle rode him on his last victory last March.
I feel he has been plotted for this contest, as it is a decent little prize pot for the calibre of horse. He would firmly be my selection for this race on Saturday.
3.15pm Haydock - Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase
This is usually a very competitive affair, and this year is no different with 11 good runners heading to post. The 2021 Welsh Grand National and 2023 Classic Chase winner Iwilldoit has to lumber a fair chunk of weight around here, but if he is running at his very best, he could be a little too good for the rest of these.
Therefore I really like the look of My Silver Lining who will carry a pretty low weight around here, and will really appreciate the emphasis on stamina. I was there when she won the Grade 3 Classic Chase at Warwick last time, really staying on in game fashion to beat Galia Des Liteaux by three quarters of a length in the end, in what was probably a career best effort from her.
That was off the mark of 122, so she does have a 5lb raise in the weights here to a new and career-high mark of 127, but still a pretty low weight to carry around Haydock on Saturday. She has been in fantastic form this season, winning on seasonal debut at Chepstow, before putting in two 2nd placed efforts at Exeter and Sandown, before going on to really put in a career best to land that Classic Chase at Warwick last time.
As I mentioned she will really love the emphasis on stamina here, with the ground conditions and track sure to suit her, and I really can't wait to see the wonderful grey try and land another good contest before hopefully getting into the Grand National and going for the race in April, although with the new rules around the race, she would probably need to win this and win it well to get in.
James Best is doing really well in terms of riding some good winners at the moment, and he is now a Grade 1 winning jockey after his Scilly Isles success at Sandown a few weeks back. Hopefully he can land another big race on My Silver Lining this weekend.
3.36pm Ascot - Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase
This is a bit of a head-scratcher in terms of L'Homme Presse and his preparation for the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival next month, as many (including myself) would have felt he might have gone straight to the chasing centrepiece race off the back of his Fleur De Lys Chase win at Lingfield last time.
There is the additional query of how this step down in trip to 2m5f will really suit him, especially going around Ascot, and coming up against a horse who does very well around here in Pic D'Orhy. However L'Homme Presse is clearly the best horse in the contest, as statistics prove and previous performances also show it.
I am a huge fan of his and his owners, and it would be great for racing to see him win at Ascot on Saturday, before going on to potentially be the leading contender for the UK horses in the Gold Cup next month. His win at Lingfield last time is so much better than the winning margin may suggest, as he was coming off the back of a year-plus absence, and although he did start the race a little bit suspect in terms of jumping, he soon warmed up to the task and won with a little bit in hand over Protektorat, who has since run well in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury last weekend.
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner, could have been a King George placed horse if he didn't unfortunately unseat, and does look to still retain that spark he showed a few years back. I really hope he can win this, before heading into the Gold Cup next month with a real chance, however he would have to really be on his A-game to beat a little course specialist of Paul Nicholls.
ITV7 Picks:
- 2.05 Wincanton - Rubaud (5/2)
- 2.25 Ascot - Bad (6/1)
- 2.40 Haydock - Red Risk (3/1)
- 3.00 Ascot - Victtorino (7/2)
- 3.07 Wincanton - Dreaming Blue
- 3.15 Haydock - My Silver Lining (11/2)
- 3.36 Ascot - L'Homme Presse (4/5)
All prices from Planet Sport Bet were correct at the time of writing but could be subject to change
Previews and tips provided by @ Jake Russell