1.35pm Ascot - Shergar Cup Dash (5f)
We have a competitive 5-furlong contest to kick start the Shergar Cup card at Ascot on Saturday. Adaay In Devon is such a likeable type who is currently running very well, so she could easily land a contest of this nature off the mark of 104.
However, I am going to side Holkham Bay for trainer William Knight and jockey Rachel Venniker from South Africa. Rachel has some pretty decent rides at this year's Shergar Cup, so she will look to kickstart the meeting with a winner here, and judging by how this gelding has performed so far this season, I can see him getting another win under his belt.
The last three form figures read 221, which includes a couple of narrow loses in very big-field handicaps at York and Ascot, and he then put those runs to good use by producing a cosy 1-length win at York 56 days ago, edging slightly left in the closing stages, but staying on well to look a really nice winner.
That was a decent performance last time out and with some experience in a double-figure field at Ascot, he looks the one they all have to beat here. One slight concern is the fact that he has been operating over 6 furlongs recently, and this drop down to 5 furlongs here might catch him out, although he has run well over the minimum trip previously, so this is not completely alien to him.
Also if the pace is pretty quick and there is a real burn up, he has the stamina capabilities to run on well in the closing stages. This is a red-hot contest, and he is rated a little bit below most of these, but that does mean he carries a very nice weight here on Saturday.
- Selection - Holkham Bay (9/1 Each Way)
2.10pm Ascot - Shergar Cup Stayers (2m)
Other maxed out field of 10 head to post here on Saturday, and this time we go from the extreme of 5 furlong speedball sprinters to start the card to real slow staying types, and whether this is the inner National Hunt in me, I do not mind the staying races at all.
This is a really difficult contest to decipher, but I am going to side with a horse who has very much slipped down the handicap ratings recently. When Spirit Mixer first started to operate over two miles he was rated around the 100 mark, and in fact won off the mark of 90 and then went on to come 2nd behind Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate off the mark of 97, which earned him the mark in the 100's.
He has dropped considerably down in the ratings since, and although there might be an element of risk attached to siding with a horse on a losing run, the fact that he has been pitched into this race off the mark of 85 shows connections believe there is some ability there, and that is enough to sway me his way. Third and fifth at Goodwood over this trip so far this season, I think the run where he was 5th is actually a little better than the bare minimum form reads, as he probably wasn't given the best or rides by Oisin Murphy, who for all of his incredible ability and talent in the saddle does not ride Goodwood too well.
Spirit Mixer was running well for a long way at Goodwood last time, and was leading with 3 furlongs to go, but was just outbattled in the end, probably hitting the front a little too soon.
If you look at his last win at Chester back in May 2022 off the mark of 90, he was held up at the rear end of the field throughout, and got his nose in front with 2 furlongs to go, which is a hard thing to do at Chester, so it goes to show the talent is very much in there.
He has not won since then, so the two-year winless streak is a little concerning, but he has dropped down to a very attractive mark here so he is the one I want to side with on Saturday. Hopefully with a bit more of a patient ride he can get his head in front here once again.
- Selection - Spirit Mixer (6/1 Win)
3.20pm Ascot - Shergar Cup Sprint
I am absolutely all over Jarraaf here for Billy Loughnane and Owen Burrows, who looked a really smart performer when winning off the mark of 87 over course and distance, where he was also sent off the 9/4 market leader, so there was clearly bundles of confidence that he was going to win that day.
A 1¼-length winner of a novice contest at Newcastle in his only two-year old run last season, he was sent off 22/1 in the market, so not much confidence at all that day, but he did win the contest nicely and pretty much won going away in the end.
He kick #started his three-year-old season with a decent 3rd on seasonal debut at Newbury in a red-hot novice contest, before going on to Sandown where he ran a creditable 4th without looking to flashy about it, only beaten by a little over 2 lengths and looking like that run might have put him right for a good chance if lining up in a handicap contest next time out.
That is what connections opted for, and off the mark of 87 he did look to be chucked in slightly, and the fact that there was a little bit of market support would suggest he was fancied within connections that day. He broke well, was kept well in touch with the rest of the field, before leading with a furlong to go, really extending his lead in the end, not given that much of a difficult time in the process.
He beat a horse in Fresh who does very well at that course, and he beat him by over 2 lengths in the end, looking like a potential Group horse in a handicap.
Billy Loughnane takes over the reins from David Probert, which can only be seen as a positive as Billy is one of the shining stars in our sport, and he could very much have a good Shergar Cup on debut.
I think now this horse has got back to winning ways, his confidence will be through the roof, and with a positiveride expected from Billy this weekend, I think the 8lb raise in the weights from his last run will not be enough to stop him here.
- Selection - Jarraaf (7/4 Win)
All previews and tips provided by @ Jake Russell