2.30pm - Listed Chesham Stakes
The final two-year-old contest of the Royal meeting, and like all of the other ones this week, this is a very hard race to gauge. Bedtime Story for the O'Brien/Moore partnership will no doubt gather a whole load of interest in the betting and on course, and she is bred in the purple so no doubt she will run well for Aidan O'Brien, who has won this a record six times.
But what has been the feature this week is the market leaders not doing particularly well when it comes to these competitive two-year-old races, and Aidan did have Whistlejacket who disappointed at a short price in the Norfolk on Thursday.
With that in mind, I quite like the look of Pentle Bay who was a winner over six furlongs in a Leicester maiden last time out. The winning margin of a head is not much to look at considering he takes a step up into Listed company on Saturday, but it was clear he needed every inch of the trip, so the step up to seven furlongs here can only be a huge plus for the son of New Bay.
Another thing to bear in mind is the trouble he encountered in running last time, when he was pretty slowly away and then short of room from an early stage so had to be kept at the rear of the field, but his class was starting to shine through as he made smooth headway from 2 furlongs out before keeping on incredibly well in the final stages of the race, getting up in the dying strides, with a really nice educational ride from Jamie Spencer.
Equally of note is that he was one of only a few newcomers in the race, so to beat the experienced runners in the manner that he did, given the circumstances mid-race, can be marked up slightly. I suggest a watch of the replay is needed, as he really motored home in the final furlong or so and he ran through the line very well, which, given it was his first time experiencing the racecourse, display a natural ability.
He was recently picked up for £400,000 by his new connections, and that was as recently as Monday just gone, so they must have very much liked what they saw from him.
- Selection - Pentle Bay (8/1 Each Way)
3.05pm - Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes
Another contest where Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have the market leader, and it is clear to see why as Continuous is a St Leger winner who also ran very well to come 5th in the Arc last season. The lack of a recent run and almost nine months off the track is an obvious cause of concern, especially when he is coming up against a race-fit and thriving Middle Earth.
It has not been the best week for John & Thady Gosden, but the opposite can be said for Oisin Murphy, who has ridden three winners during the week so far (at the time of writing this on Friday morning), so that is a huge plus for backers of Middle Earth.
The son of Roaring Lion does have a little bit to find against Continuous in terms of ratings and previous form, but the fact he won a Group 3 contest on his first start as a four-year-old just over four weeks ago, would suggest he is very much improving with each run still.
He is a lightly-raced sort for his age, with just seven runs to his name so far, but four of them have been wins, including on good-firm ground in the Melrose Handicap last season.
I think the key here is race fitness, and given the fact he ran just 35 days ago when winning a Group 3 contest with Desert Hero in behind, he has that on his side, as well as the favourable underfoot conditions.
Ultimately, he might not be as good as Continuous, but I think given how short the Aidan O'Brien representative is in the market, it’s worth taking a chance on a horse who has been in fine form of late. That performance in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time was a good effort, and granted he only won by a nose, he was always staying on well heading to the line.
He is a real game sort who can mix it up at any of these middle-distance/staying trips, and if Continuous is not fit enough to take this contest, Middle Earth will be the one to steal it from him.
- Selection - Middle Earth (5/2 Win)
3.45pm - Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
A wide-open contest for the feature race of the final day at Royal Ascot on Saturday, with the market leader currently being around the 5/1 mark, which sums up how open the race really is.
Given the fact that James Doyle is having a pretty good week for his new bosses at Wathnan Racing, I am going to side with their Shartash, who is currently two for two with new trainer Archie Watson, who does actually have quite a few of the Wathnan Racing recruits. A winner of the Railway Stakes for Johnny Murtagh back in his two-year-old days, he was then owned by Aga Khan, so clearly there is talent in the locker for this lad.
He did slightly lose his way in the last few runs for this previous yard, but he has not looked back since coming over from Ireland, and now in the capable hands of Archie Watson who has seemingly got this son of Invincible Spirit back to his very best.
A five-length winner of a Conditions race at Thirsk for his first start for Archie, he then went on to back that up with a nice Listed win at Haydock, where he won by a neck from Pogo, who is a real consistent Group performer.
He might not be quite up to being a Group 1 horse, but as Khaadem showed last season when winning this race at 80/1 (which I believe is the biggest winning price of a Group 1 race at Royal Ascot), anything can happen when it comes to these wide-open sprint contests.
As Wathnan Racing has shown, they are a very good outfit when it comes to buying their stock, so I expect they have purchased this lad with this contest very much in mind. He has been revitalised with the change of yards, with two wins in two runs for Archie, who clearly knows what it takes to win the big Group 1 sprint races at the Royal meeting, as he done so with Bradsell last year, as well as being very unlucky with Dragon Symbol (who won the Kings Stand but got demoted to 2nd by the stewards room). I think that given the wide-open nature of this contest, he is the one to side with on Saturday.
- Selection - Shartash (6/1 Each Way)
4.25pm - Group 3 Jersey Stakes
It does seem strange that Ballydoyle have decided to pitch River Tiber into this Group 3 contest on Saturday, given the fact that his first run of the season was in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas last time. He is clearly taking a massive step down in class here from Group 1 to Group 3 company, and given the fact he won the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting last season and also came 3rd in two Group 1's, I just think he is the best horse in the race and will win here once again.
Haatem is already a Group 3 winner this season and has run well to place in the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas, but the fact that he has to give River Tiber some weight here could be the main reason why it swings the way of River Tiber come Saturday.
The Aidan O'Brien horse has race fitness on his side,and although the seven-furlong trip is interesting, I feel that should pose no issues for the son of Wootton Bassett who could have a pretty productive season if they can find the key to success for this horse.
A winner at the Royal meeting already, this race could very much be the main turning point for his season ahead as connections decide where to go with him next and what trip to aim him at for the season going forward.
- Selection - River Tiber (6/4 Win)
Royal Ascot Day 5 selection summary:
- 2.30 - Pentle Bay 8/1 EW
- 3.05 - Middle Earth 5/2
- 3.45 - Shartash 6/1 EW
- 4.25 - River Tiber 6/4
- 5.05 - Mums Tipple 14/1 EW
- 5.45 - Hand Of God 11/4
- 6.15 - Queenstown 3/1
All prices are from Planet Sport Bet and are subject to change
All previews and tips provided by @ Jake Russell