1.50pm York - Group 3 Strensall Stakes
Ultimately if Sea The Fire can replicate the run from the Nassau last time out, she will be pretty hard to beat here on Saturday. She was double-figure odds that day, so there is a slight question mark on whether her finishing position was flattered due to the fact the race fell ever so slightly apart with Emily Upjohn, but she pushed the eventual winner Opera Singer to the line, only just getting beat into second by a neck.
She has only won once in her short career so far, which was a debut win at Newmarket over 7 furlongs last season, and she has certainly come on in leaps and bounds with each run since.
She placed in a Group 2 contest the next time out and went into Group 1 company on just her third-ever run, where she came a decent 3rd in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, only beaten by a length and a quarter.
She was yet to land a blow in three of her runs this season, but they were all in really good Group 1 contests, which includes a 12th on seasonal debut in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, a 5th of 9 in the Coronation Stakes before then going on to come a very decent 4th in the Coral-Eclipse, probably not suited by the softer going on the day.
That run last time out at Goodwood going back against her own sex was very good, and she pushed the eventual winner all the way to the line that day. Things are starting to click for the daughter of Sea The Stars, and given the fact that she has only had seven career runs to date, she is still learning on the job.
As mentioned, if she can replicate that Goodwood effort, dropping down in class here for the first time this season, I think she is sure-fire to win this on Saturday.
- Selection - Sea The Fire (3/1 Win)
3.00pm York - Group 2 City Of York Stakes
Audience has been in very good form this season, a Group 1 winner on his first run of the season, he has since won a Group 2 at Goodwood last time. However, catching the eye more is Lake Forrest for William Haggas and Tom Marquand, who is yet to win this season but who has put in two decent runner-up efforts.
The first run was in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup where he came a very good 2nd, beaten by 2¾ lengths, but given the fact that was his first run of the season, it was an almighty effort. He then took a step down in class next time out when lining up in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes, and although he ran well he was slightly unfortunate to bump into Elite Statues, who is a potential Group 2/1 horse for Karl Burke.
The one thing that I took out of the race last time was how Lake Forrest was always staying on very well towards the line, looking like the eventual step-up in trip would suit him down to the ground. He gets that step up in the trip at York on Saturday, and given the fact that one of two wins in his career has come at York (which was the Gimcrack at this meeting last year), he is the one who can improve enough to land the contest.
Rated 111 here, he is well up there with the rest of these, but he does get a nice weight allowance off the rest of the field due to him being a three-year-old. Very lightly raced, a Group 2 winner at this course, and the one who could improve even more for this step up in trip, he is the one to upset the favourite for me this Saturday.
- Selection - Lake Forrest (7/2 Win)
3.35pm York - Ebor Handicap
A very competitive contest is on the cards for the feature contest of the entire meeting, after all the Festival is named after this race, and with that in mind I have found it very tricky to nail down a selection.
Ideally, you want a runner who is drawn in the double figures, with the last 10 renewals having been won by horses coming out of stalls 24, 20, 14, 12, 2, 21, 18, 15, 6, and 16, so with that in mind, I like the look of Crystal Delight at the prices.
Jim Crowley has ridden this horse for all three of his runs this season, but he has an engagement with a Shadwell horse in this contest, and I am sure he might be a little disappointed to miss out on the ride on this horse as he has been in top form with the three runs he has had for Harry Eustace this season.
Once trained by William Jarvis, he was rated 88 when he moved stables, and after winning two handicap contests he is now operating at the mark of 105 and has the form and figures good enough to chance his arm in a Listed contest at Newmarket last time out.
He was fairly well fancied to take the step up in class in his stride that day, but he could only manage a 5th-place finish out of just six runners and was well beaten by 30 lengths in the end, with no real explanation as to why he did disappoint.
The one thing that might have been a slight issue was running at Newmarket, which is a very tricky track for the front-running keen sorts and he could not really get that clear of a lead as he was pushed hard up the front end. Now the same might happen here, but if he can burst out of stall 17 quickly and gather an early lead, he might not be caught by the rest of the field.
His two handicap runs at the start of the season were very good, and although he has since had a real push in the weights, there is surely still more to come from this lad as he didn't look like he was for stopping in his penultimate race at York.
He takes an extra two-furlong step up in trip here, and although he is yet to run over this distance, I think it will suit him. His run in the Jorvik Handicap a few months back was very good, and that can be seen as a trial for this, which does read well form-wise.
Out of the last 10 winners of this race, 9 of them have been 100+, where the ratings range from 100 to 109, so Crystal Delight’s rating of 105 here means he is well in there with the previous and most recent trends.At the price I think it is worth taking a chance with him, as he definitely has the ability to land a blow in a race like this.
- Selection - Crystal Delight (25/1 Each Way)
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