1.50pm York - Group 2 Lowther Stakes
Leovanni has been very good in her only two starts so far, winning a Nottingham maiden before going on to land the Queen Mary Stakes at the Royal Meeting in June, while her trainer Karl Burke has a pretty good record in this race, winning it two times in the last six years. However, she does have to carry a 3lb penalty here against some very interesting fillies, and I think that might just catch her out here, as well as the step up to 6 furlongs.
Therefore, I am siding with Heavens Gate for the powerhouse Aidan O'Brien, who has campaigned her fairly heavily with five runs so far, of which she has won twice and placed in the other three. A 2nd on debut at Navan, she then went one better to win a Curragh maiden over 6 furlongs (debut was over the minimum 5 furlong trip) although being bred for a slightly longer trip, she showed plenty of speed in the process of winning by just over 2 lengths.
She was then stepped up in class as connections decided to pitch her into the Albany Stakes, where she was the yard’s second string and ran a blinder to claim third spot, only beaten by a length in the end. She made all that day, and although it looked as if the rest might go past her in the closing stages, she battled on gamely when joined and held onto 3rd spot, which is actually the least she deserved as it was an incredible effort.
She was then stepped up in class once again when contesting in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket, where she was sent off the 15/8 favourite, but could only manage third spot again. Although she did not win and justify the market support, considering her troubled passage throughout the later stages of the race, she ran well once again and was not given a hard time by Ryan Moore.
It was next time out when she finally earned another day in the sun, lining up as the odds-on favourite in a valuable sales contest at Navan, pretty much leading all the way before powering clear in the closing stages to win by a length and a quarter, looking like a real speed ball in the process.
She probably has the best form on offer at this stage, and she is clearly battle hardened and has that very valuable experience under her belt. That could count for something as she comes up against some lesser experienced rivals in this on Thursday, I think she has plenty of speed and will be a tough nut to crack if given a slightly easy time at the front once again.
She deserves a big Group success as she has been in very good form this season so far. Hopefully the five runs do not catch up with her here on Thursday.
- Selection - Heaven's Gate (3/1 Win)
3.35pm York - Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks
When you look at the previous roll of honour for this contest, there have been some very good winning fillies and mares to have won this race, with the likes of Enable, Sea Of Class, Alpinista and Love springing to mind. The quality this season does seem a little underwhelming, with most of these either looking to get their career on track or win for the first time at Group 1 level.
Content was sent off the 3/1 favourite for the Irish Oaks last time out and she could only manage 2nd place, Queen Of The Pride (I absolutely love the inventive name by the way) comes into this tackling Group 1 company for the first time after winning the Lancashire Oaks last time, and Emily Upjohn arrives here searching for her first win of the season as a five year old.
Looking at the eight runners, and given the fact that Emily Upjohn is the highest rated in the field at 116, it does show there is no real quality in the middle-distance fillies/mares division. Just to put into perspective Enable was rated 126 when she won both of her Yorkshire Oaks, as well as Love being 122 and Alpinista being 118.
So the fact the two rated just below Emily Upjohn at 111 questions whether they are good enough to win a contest of this nature. Ultimately if the true Emily Upjohn turns up here, and runs to that mark , then she will take a fair bit of stopping. Once rated 121 in her peak and a multiple Group 1 winner, she comes up against her own sex again just like her last two runs, where she came 2nd in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh, pretty unlucky to bump into Bluestocking, before disappointing in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time.
I think we can draw a line through that effort last time, as she was far too keen and the race tactics probably weren't up to scratch from both the Gosdens and Shoemark. So ideally, with her being so keen in the early stages, it would be nice to maybe see her up there a bit closer to the leaders, hopefully providing a bit of pace for her to run at, which should help her to settle better during the race. Goodwood is a funny track anyway and HAS to be ridden a certain way, which probably doesn't suit the keen going horses, so the fact she hasn't run at Goodwood before last time might suggest connections had that in the back of their minds. Ultimately she would need to run to her best to land this here as she does take on a few unexposed types, however numbers do not lie and she is the highest rated in the field by a fair way.
She has to give four of these a fairly hefty 9lbs in the weights due to their age allowances, but ultimately she is way clear of them in the ratings anyway, so it should not make too much of a difference in the contest.
That run last time out was a poor showing when well fancied by many to get back on track, but as mentioned I would draw a line through it and hope she is a little more "up for it" here on Thursday.
At the end of the day she put in arguably one of her best performances at the Curragh two starts ago, when looking the winner all the way down the straight, before just getting collared by Bluestocking (since came 2nd in the King George and runs in the Juddmonte on Wednesday). So although she looks to be trying to claw back her career here, it's not like she hasn't run well this season, she in-fact did just two starts ago.
I would like to see her get ridden like at the Curragh, and if she is in a prime position before coming down the home straight like in the Pretty Polly Stakes, I think she is the one they all have to pass here in the feature contest on Thursday.
It feels like this could be the last roll of the dice for her, because if she were to disappoint we might not see her on the racetrack again, but if she runs well, there could be a few more angles for her yet this season. I hope it's the latter as on her day she is a real talent.
- Selection - Emily Upjohn (4/1 Win)
4.10pm York - Listed Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes
This contest might as well be a handicap race, as it is incredibly tricky to decipher and looking at the ratings of these fillies, none of them really jump out as potential superstars in the making. Sea Just In Time hails from a yard who do well with her type given the pedigree, and she was very impressive when winning on debut, but she disappointed in a Listed contest at Goodwood next time out, and although she won a novice contest last time, she was odds on in the market and was more than entitled to land the contest. She didn't particularly look pleasing to the eye last time, and that was just 15 days ago, therefore I will be looking elsewhere.
And that elsewhere is Noisy Jazz who has only had the one career run so far, but I am convinced that if she was trained by a more "prominent" trainer she would not be a double-figure price, as she was a very impressive winner on debut and people would be jumping on a hype about her if trained by say the Gosden's or Charlie Appleby. But with that in mind James Owen is a very capable, up-and-coming trainer who does very well over both codes, so that should go against her here on Thursday.
Noisy Jazz was a very impressive winner of a maiden at Newmarket some 20 days ago, and the form has been franked since then with Get Jiggy With It (who was 3rd) winning at Redcar in pretty decent fashion. She broke well, was up there with the pace with the leader, before taking the lead with 4 furlongs to go, then going on to forge clear in the closing stages by 5 lengths. Given the fact that was her first appearance at the racecourse, she looked like a true professional already, and it is clear to see that connections have taken their time with her.
That was over a mile, so she takes a pretty hefty step up in trip here as well as in class, and she was a 25/1 shot so clearly not much confidence for her, although the manner in which she won that race, as well as her pedigree, suggests there is more improvement to come from James Owen's daughter of Ulysses.
The way she handled the dip at Newmarket last time and lengthened away in the closing stages was very pleasing to the eye, so I feel she has the quality in there to run well in this contest, a race that is probably not the best Listed race on paper.
Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride, and given how she ran last time, he is the perfect jockey booking for this filly. As mentioned there is a risk attached to picking this horse, but given the fact that she is an unknown quantity with a very nice pedigree, she could well perform in a pretty poor Listed race. Also connections have chucked her into the deep end very early on in her career, so they must feel she is a potential weapon in the making.
She is the half sister to Big Orange as well, so with him being the horse that got me into racing some 10 years or so ago, it's only natural that she caught my eye. No matter what she does this season, she is certainly one for the future and one to keep an eye on going forward the more she steps up in trip.
- Selection - Noisy Jazz (12/1 Each Way)
All previews and tips provided by @ Jake Russell