*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
In last week's clash at the Allianz Arena, Lautaro Martínez opened the scoring with a stunning finish, and Davide Frattesi, who came off the bench, sealed the win late in the match with a close-range effort. That win gives Inter the edge, statistically too—they’ve progressed in 21 of the 23 previous knockout ties in which they won the first leg.
However, last season they were knocked out by Atlético Madrid in dramatic fashion, losing on penalties after a 1-0 first-leg win.
Inter are on a hot streak at home, unbeaten in their last 14 Champions League matches at San Siro—the longest current home unbeaten run in the competition—snapping Bayern’s own 22-game streak last week in the process.
The momentum is with the Italian side. Over the weekend, they cruised past Cagliari, maintaining their three-point lead over Napoli at the top of Serie A. They're unbeaten in 12 matches across all competitions, with nine wins and three draws.
Simone Inzaghi rested key players like Thuram, Bastoni, and Mkhitaryan in the league, all expected to return to the starting lineup. Lautaro Martínez will captain the side, while Di Marco and Darmian are set to start as full-backs, with Dumfries unavailable.
Lautaro is also chasing a club record—he's scored in each of his last four Champions League games and could become the first Inter player to net in five consecutive matches in the competition.
Bayern’s uphill task—but history offers hope
Bayern may be trailing, but they have history on their side. They've won every away match they've played at Inter—four in total—conceding only once. Despite losing the first leg, the Bavarians created enough chances to stay optimistic. Notably, Inter recorded 537 high-pressure actions in that match, the most by any team in a Champions League game this season.
Domestically, Bayern drew 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but they were handed a lifeline in the title race when Leverkusen dropped points against Union Berlin. Serge Gnabry was a standout performer, getting on the scoresheet, but defensively Bayern remain shaky, having now conceded in five consecutive games.
There's one worrying stat: Bayern have advanced only once in their last eight attempts after losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie. That one success came last season, against Lazio.
Vincent Kompany will be boosted by the return of Kingsley Coman, back from injury. Raphael Guerreiro is set to feature in an advanced midfield role, with Sané and Olise on the wings, and Kane leading the line. Stanisic continues at left-back, while Kim and Dier form the central defensive duo, supported by Kimmich and Goretzka in midfield.
Bayern are unbeaten in their last seven away matches (five wins, two draws), so they will arrive in Milan with confidence despite the deficit.
Head-to-head Stats
- In the last six meetings: 3 wins each.
- Only one home win in those six games.
- Bayern have won all four away games against Inter in Milan.
Top Betting Suggestions
1. Both Teams to Score – Yes
- Inter have scored in 12 straight games, and Bayern in all of their last 7 away matches.
- Inter’s attack is on fire, while Bayern will need to chase the game.
2. Over 2.5 Goals
- Five of Inter’s last six matches have had at least 3 goals.
- Bayern’s defensive frailties + offensive firepower = likely fireworks.
3. Lautaro Martínez to Score Anytime
- Four consecutive UCL matches with goals.
- Playing at home, rested, and chasing a record.
4. Bayern to Win Either Half
- Historically strong in Milan, and will push hard especially in the second half.
5. Inter to Qualify
- Strong home record, solid advantage, and tactical discipline under Inzaghi.