*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
After a disastrous European Championship exit, where Italy suffered a humiliating loss in the round of 16, Spalletti’s Italy have shown a completely different side in the Nations League group stages. The Squadra Azzurra found the same skill-soaked enthusiasm that helped them win Euro 2020 and almost managed to top a group containing World Cup runners-up France.
The Italians kicked off their Nations League campaign with a 3-1 win in Paris, but ended it losing to the same opponents by that exact same scoreline in a match in which they only needed a point to win the group. France eventually finished top on goal difference.
For Italy, the Nations League campaign has mainly served as preparation for the upcoming World Cup qualifiers. Spalletti has already shaped his squad with a focus on reaching the World Cup, having infamously missing out on in the last two attempts.
Despite the disappointing loss to France, Spalletti has seen plenty of positives: the win in Paris, the victory in Belgium, and a strong first half in the match against Belgium in Rome. However, there were also concerns, like the defeat to France when Italy was favored to win.
That loss to Les Bleus was Italy’s first after five matches in which they had secured four wins and one draw. At home, Italy hadn’t lost since spring 2023 when they were beaten 1-2 by England in Euro 2024 qualifiers.
One major absentee for Italy is Inter full-back Dimarco, who is injured and likely to be replaced by Udogie. Cambiaso also has minor issues and will be on the bench. Up front, Retegui is expected to start alongside Raspadori, with Moise Kean likely to start on the bench.
On the other hand, Germany enjoyed a strong European Championship campaign, only to be knocked out by a controversial decision in their match against Spain. UEFA later admitted the decision was wrong, but it did little to ease the pain for the Germans.
In the Nations League, Germany breezed through their group, which also included the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia. With four wins and two draws, Germany topped their group, with the Netherlands providing the only serious challenge.
Germany’s impressive results included a 5-0 demolition of Hungary in their first match, a 1-1 draw the return fixture, and a 7-0 thrashing of Bosnia in Freiburg. The Germans boasted the best attack in the group, scoring 18 goals, and the best defence, conceding just four goals. They are unbeaten in their last 15 matches, with 10 wins and 5 draws.
Their last loss came in a 0-2 defeat to Austria in a 2023 friendly, marking the end of a tough year where Germany lost six out of 11 matches. In response to their disappointing form, Germany parted ways with coach Hansi Flick, fearing a disastrous performance at the European Championship they hosted.
Unlike Spalletti, who faces just one key injury, Nagelsmann’s side is facing significant problems up front, with Wirtz, Fullkrug, and Havertz all unavailable. It’s likely that Undav will spearhead the attack, although Kleindienst has shown promising form when called upon.
Historically, Italy have often had the upper hand over Germany, with the Azzurri regularly defeating the Germans in official competitions. However, things have changed in recent years, and Italy has now gone 13 years without a win against their old rivals. The last time Italy beat Germany was in the 2012 European Championship semifinals (2-1).
Since then, the two teams have met six times, with Germany winning twice and the remaining four encounters ending in draws. In the previous Nations League edition, Italy and Germany drew 1-1 in Bologna and Germany triumphed 5-2 in Mönchengladbach.
Betting Suggestions:
- Match Outcome: Germany to Win or Draw (Double Chance) – Germany has been dominant over the past decade, and Italy’s recent form suggests they might struggle in this matchup, especially with key absentees. Given Germany's strength and Italy’s inconsistencies, betting double chance on Germany to win or draw seems like a safe option.
- Total Goals – Over 2.5 Goals – Both teams have shown attacking prowess in recent matches, and with Italy and Germany having a history of high-scoring encounters, betting on over 2.5 goals in this match could yield a good return.
- Anytime Goal Scorer – Retegui – With Italy’s reliance on Retegui in attack, he’s a strong candidate to find the back of the net.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Both Italy and Germany have been strong offensively and have defensive vulnerabilities. The possibility of both teams scoring in this high-stakes encounter is quite likely.