News & Community Articles

Romelu Lukaku will do it in the big games for Man United, here's why...

Published

Lukaku is joining Man United, and we take a look at why we know he'll rip up the Premier League this coming season for the Red side of Manchester

One of the biggest transfers of this summer looks set to be fully completed any moment: Romelu Lukaku’s move to Manchester United. With an initial fee of £75 million (rising to £90 million with add ons) agreed between the two clubs and a medical completed, Lukaku is pretty much a red. A few people are unsure whether he can make the step up and one of the questions thrown at Lukaku is that he doesn’t “do it in big games”.

\r\n\r\n

The 24-year-old Belgian has scored over 50 goals in the past three seasons. For me the most important part of that sentence isn’t the 50 goals, it is the 24 years old. Manchester United are getting a proven premier league goal scorer who still hasn’t reached his peak. One of the only current players to have scored more goals in the premier league at a similar age is Harry Kane, and there is a very strong argument that Kane is playing on a considerably better side. With Tottenham creating 112 more chances during the 16/17 season than Everton, the argument is a strong one. There is no doubt therefore that Lukaku is a very good young footballer, but as a forward for Manchester United you will be expected to be the difference in big games and there are doubts as to whether Romelu can be.

\r\n\r\n

To try and give some insight into whether these doubts are warranted or not, it’s worth considering Lukaku’s performances against the top sides and try to provide some context. Lukaku scored 25 goals in the 16/17 season with 4 coming against sides in the top six; so he bagged 16% of his goals against the 6 of the best sides out of the 19 he played against. He also struggles to get shots off against top sides, averaging 2.18 shots per game against the top 6 and 3.31 against the rest of the league. Same for shots on target with just 0.91 (an accuracy of 41%) against the top 6 and 1.73 (an accuracy of 52%) against the rest of the league. Showing that not only does he struggle to get shots off against the better teams, he is also less accurate.

\r\n\r\n

These are not however indicators of a poor player. When playing against the better teams most players are likely to see a drop in their numbers. Teams that are near the top of the table are usually more organised and more solid in their defensive structures than those lower down the league. Meaning it is more difficult to get shots off and even when you can you are likely to be under more pressure; and therefore, less likely to get the shot on target, or score.

\r\n\r\n

Lukaku's Scoring Breakdown 16/17

\r\n\r\n

Another reason Romelu could be struggling to get shots off, and score against top six sides is the side he his playing in. Everton are alongside the likes of Southampton in a little group just outside of the top six. They don’t quite have the same quality as those sides in the top six, and Lukaku has clearly been their standout player in recent seasons. He often plays as a lone striker, so having quality players around him is important, especially if he is to receive the ball in advanced positions and be expected to do something positive with the ball.

\r\n\r\n

When we look at the passing contributions to Lukaku in the big games, there is a massive lack of creative midfielder influence. There was only one of the game (vs Manchester United at home) against the top six where it wasn’t a defender or goalkeeper that managed to find Lukaku the most. Even in that game it was defensive midfielder - Gareth Barry. Maarten Stekelenburg is the player in games against the top 6 who found Lukaku the most (4 out of 11 games), with Joel Robles in another two. So out of the 11 games he played against the top 6 last season, a goalkeeper was the main connection to Lukaku in more than half of the games. Showing a disconnection between Lukaku and the rest of the team. Is that his fault?

\r\n\r\n

You could argue that Koeman is to blame, adopting tactical changes that didn’t work playing with a lone striker against the top 6, or at least that they stifled the impact Lukaku could make. If you're ever played as a lone striker, at any standard, you'll be able to appreciate how tough it can be when you're isolated. When your team is under the kosh and the ball is lumped up to you, your options are limited with what you can hope to achieve.

\r\n\r\n

You also have to accept the fact that Everton have significantly less possession against the top six sides, making it harder to create good quality chances for the lone front man. This could be one of the reasons people lean towards the “he doesn’t do it in big games” mantra. Plus, it’s a big money move to Man United, he’s confident in his abilities, and people bloody love a moan or to bring people down

\r\n\r\n

Even though Lukaku’s performances against the top six sides haven’t set the world alight, there are several contributing factors that have skewed the impressions of the public. In general, an ‘average’ team playing superior opposition will make it more difficult for the team to succeed, making it tougher for players to make their individual performances influence the game.

\r\n\r\n

Lukaku is going to be a revelation next season, his impact will directly correlate with how United perform as a team. Playing with players who can make the difference in the big games will grant him more opportunities to shine in the big games – opportunities that he’ll grab with both hands and justify his £75m price tag.

\r\n

Want to see older articles? Visit our articles page to keep reading.