There's no shortage of opinions, views or betting strategies when it comes to how people believe you can best make a profit. Whilst there is overwhelmingly probability at least in favor of backing singles at realistic odds, that doesn't mean one should be ignored to the wide variety of markets that are out there these days. Whilst some are clear novelties, designed by the bookmaker to draw in the casual punter with short pockets and quick fingers, the correct score market is one that does often hold value in it's bigger odds and have been exploited successfully by many of those on the Tipstrr platform recently.
\r\n\r\nWhat is Correct Score betting?
\r\n\r\nCorrect Score betting is the act of identifying the exact full-time result of any given football game. For example, France wins 2-0 against Holland. A winning correct score bet would mean identifying how many goals the winning team score, how many the losing team score, and nothing else will do. There are no moneyback stipulations. The half-time score is irrelevant, and any and all goals count. If those two goals happen to be an own-goal and a penalty, that's fine.
\r\n\r\nHow can this market be profitable?
\r\n\r\nIt's open to interpretation how best to utilize this market, just like any other really, but there are some things to keep in mind when attempting to increase your chances of being profitable. If you're betting on a game between two teams that are known to play high scoring fixtures, then you have to consider that there are a lot of potential outcomes. Putting your finger on one outcome when there could be anywhere from three to five goals, or more, in any particular arrangement is arguably not a good way to use the market.
\r\n\r\nInstead, it could be wise to focus on games where a low score is expected. If 15 of teams last 20 games have one under 2.5 goals and they're notoriously low scorers, then that could more often than not limit the probable outcomes to four. 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1. Think Atletico Madrid or Leicester City at times, for example. Whereas if you're trying to guess the score between free-scoring Barcelona and leaky Levante... you get the picture.
\r\n\r\nBy casting your eye far and wide, you give yourself a better opportunity of being profitable. Look to games in notoriously low-scoring and tight domestic leagues such as Colombia for example. Teams like Medellin are so often winning 1-0 or 2-0 at home, whilst Boca Juniors and River Plate are another good examples of teams that aren't that hard to pin down to a specific goalscoring range at home. If you're going to try and identify a bunch of correct scores on the upcoming UCL games 'because they're more fun to watch and bet on', forget about it.
\r\n\r\nYou can find value. Thinking back to the novelty markets we mentioned, it's a little tricky to understand how some things are priced as they are, and certainly what the actual probability of them happening is. The Correct Score market can offer many big prices, but there are lots of statistics, methods, and angles that back up score selection. If a team has won five of their 10 home games 1-0 and you know it's going to be a tight game, yet the odds say 7.00 which is 16.70%\r\n as opposed to the 50% rate at which it has happened previously in the season, maybe that's enough to claim value. There is, of course, more detailed ways of examining and assessing value, such as goal expectancy.
\r\n\r\nProfitable Correct Score tipsters
\r\n\r\nAnyone could profit from accumulators, corner betting, card betting and any other novelty betting market that you could think of over the course of one month if a number of random factors including pure luck went their way. But do you think they could keep that up for two, three, four, five, even six months? Probability says certainly not, whereas we are seeing correct score tipsters start to do just that.
\r\n\r\nIt's inclusion on the Tipstrr platform is still pretty new in betting terms and we may want to spark up this conversation ago in six to 12 months time, but for the time being it seems that the correct score market is one that can be profitable without relying on random luck. A lot of the tipsters using it have stuck to low scoring games, trying to pin down those cagier games with lesser goals, but we have still seen some rather clever predictions come in. Below we've taken a quick look at the five most profitable Correct Score tipsters and their methods.
\r\n\r\nChampionship Correct Scores - 71 tips, +22.00 units, 31.00% ROI
\r\nAnother method when identifying a correct score can be to roll with a side that you'd expect to win the game, ad these use statistics to narrow down the most likely several outcomes in favor of that time. It's a risk betting on all of them,\r\n but if you can find regular winners then the odds make the win percentage irrelevant. That's the method Championship Correct Scores has taken on, and they made 22 units (from 1 unit stakes) in the month of September. That's a hefty return that rivals anyone on the verified football tipster leaderboard.
\r\n\r\nSoccer Scores - 188 tips, +610.50 units, 32.50% ROI
\r\nWhilst we do use return on investment as our main method of assessing performance here at Tipstrr, and without doubt 32.50% ROI is amazing, most people could care less about ROI if they're walking away with this amount of profit.\r\n You read that right, Soccer Scores made +610.50 units from betting on the correct score of games. They've already picked up one winner in September to the tune of +120 units. In September, every correct score came with a cover bet.\r\n This tipster was so profitable because they did land some tasty correct scores, but when things didn't quite work out,\r\n there were some carefully selected goal markets that often covered the losses.
\r\n\r\nPremier League Correct Scores - 24 tips, +110.00 units, 45.80% ROI
\r\nThis tipster reverts back to the original method we covered of identifying a winner and trying to pinpoint the most likely score range. One of their handsome winners in September was correctly identifying Manchester City to beat Crystal Palace 5-0. This wasn't their only selection as they also tipped Manchester City to win 4-0, obviously expecting a very one-sided game on this occasion. We think it's fair to say many punters expected one-way traffic, so this is an absolutely perfect example of how to use the market to make profits.
\r\n\r\nCorrect Score CS - 27 tips, +280.00 units, 103.70% ROI
\r\nPedja Erac, a member of the Tipstrr platform who is active on Twitter and has a range of profiles based on separate models, is the brains behind the Correct Score CS account. Pedja has created many models that dictate the tips that go on his profiles and this one is no same. The aim of the game is to identify correct scores priced 15.00 to 25.00, presumably because he feels this is a nice number to target to avoid bouncing between profit and loss overall. Two winners in every 15 would provide a big profit. This account has produced five winners from 38 picks since August 25th,\r\n not once going more than 13 games without a winner. What's interesting here is that Pedja's model has nailed down the correct score in 13% of picks despite picking one score each for most games.
\r\n\r\nSerie A Correct Score - 73 tips, +770.00 units, 105.50% ROI
\r\nSerie A Correct Score offered up nearly treble a number of tips as Correct Score CS, and the +770 unit profit is a nice visualization of what could be achieved if the level of performance we've highlighted here is maintained over a higher volume of tips. A 105.50% ROI was quite possibly the highest we've ever seen from a football tipster on the platform, and it's especially impressive over a very healthy amount of picks. The method here is the method of identifying low scoring games that we covered. After South America, Italy is arguably the best place to apply that strategy. Winning correct scores in September included Inter beating Bologna winning 1-0 at Genoa and Sassuolo, Inter beating Genoa 1-0 and AC Milan winning 2-0 at home to SPAL. The vast majority of correct score tips were in the 0-0/1-0/0-1/1-1 range, with the odd 2-0 selection on more likely sides such as AC Milan.
\r\n\r\nSo, how about long term profits?
\r\n\r\nThere in lays the challenge and what we'll be keeping a close eye on in the coming months. There will inevitably be ups and down because of the size of the odds these guys are dealing with. Probability dictates that, but they've all taken the time to consider their bankroll and given themselves a healthy buffer with these profits. To make so much pure profit in one month is enough to arguably suggest winning at this market is not a fluke, and that these performances could be repeated. Tipster C Scores featured as the number one football tipster on the platform earlier in the year having made strong profits in three consecutive months as a correct score tipster. A tough month of August has been put behind him with 140 units of profit since, putting him in to profit in four of the last six months.
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