In any of the last few World Cups, Scotland's tartan army would already be on their way home following their defeat to Morocco and Thursday’s 3-0 horror show against Brazil.
However, despite the pessimistic post-match viewpoints of manager Steve Clarke and captain Andy Robertson, all is not yet lost because this expanded edition means they are not completely out of the picture just yet.
The equation is simple: with the eight best third-placed teams set to advance, Scotland must finish above four of their 12 rivals in the third-place league table.
The only problem is that Thursday’s thumping defeat (and it could have been even worse!) left the Scots with what could be a decisive and tournament-ending -3 goal difference.
With the two third-placed teams from Groups A and B (South Korea and Bosnia & Herzegovina) already guaranteed to finish above the Scots, Clarke’s boys will be anxiously watching the other nine groups unfold in the hope that results fall their way.
We’ve examined the remaining group fixtures to see exactly what outcomes could work in their favour:
GROUP D
Second-placed Australia and third-placed Paraguay are both on three points, meaning they should both progress with a draw. Scotland need a convincing win one way or the other: if Australia win by more than one goal or if Paraguay win by more than three, then the loser will finish below the Scots.
- Scotland’s best hope: Australia to win by more than one goal (Odds: 11/1)
GROUP E
Scotland need both Germany and Ivory Coast to avoid defeat against Ecuador and Curacao respectively to leave both of the latter two below Scotland on points. If either of the two favourites lose, Scotland will struggle, except in the event of a highly unlikely large winning margin in favour of an underdog.
- Scotland’s best hope: Germany and Ivory Coast both to avoid defeat (Odds: 1/4)
- READ MORE: How to bet smart at the 2026 World Cup
GROUP F
This is a simple if somewhat hopeful one: If Japan beat Sweden by more than three goals, then the Swedes will slip below the Scots on goal difference
- Scotland’s best hope: Japan to beat Sweden by more than 3 goals (Odds: 25/1)
GROUP G
Any result between Belgium and New Zealand will send one of them above Scotland, which means that the only outcome that will save the Scots here is for Egypt to beat Iran to leave the latter on two points.
- Scotland’s best hope: Egypt to beat Iran (Odds: 6/4)
GROUP H
A similar scenario has reasonable prospects of working in Scotland’s favour. A highly probable Spain win over Uruguay will guarantee that the third-placed team in this group will end up with fewer points than the Scots
- Scotland’s best hope: Spain to beat Uruguay (Odds: 8/15)
GROUP I
Despite being pointless from their opening two games, Senegal will jump above Scotland on goal difference if they beat Iraq, who themselves would need to win by three goals to leapfrog the Scots.
- Scotland’s best hope: A draw (Odds: 6/1)
GROUP J
If Austria and Algeria draw their final showdown, then they both finish on more points than Scotland, whose best bet here would be for Austria to win by more than one goal (of the less likely outcome of Algeria winning by more than three)
- Scotland’s best hope: Austria to win by more than 1 goal (Odds: 13/2)
GROUP K
DR Congo will climb up to 4 points if they beat Uzbekistan, so Scotland will be hoping that the latter avoids defeat, but also that don’t beat the Africans by an unlikely 4-goal margin.
- Scotland’s best hope: A draw (Odds: 3/1)
GROUP L
Another simple one: Scotland’s only chance of finishing above Group L’s third-placed team is if Ghana beat Croatia by three goals or more
- Scotland’s best hope: Ghana to win by more than 2 goals (Odds: 40/1)
So that’s it, plain and simple. Perm any four of the nine scenarios above, and Scotland’s World Cup party could continue into the knockout stages for the first time in their history.
Yes, it’s perhaps more fanciful than likely, but some of those outcomes are reasonably realistic, while some of the results so far in the tournament mean that nothing can be taken for granted in the others either.