Is this how to be a successful sports bettor?
Being a successful sports bettor isn't easy, there's a reason the bookmakers are registering record profits, and can spend so much on advertising etc - and that's because most sports bettors lose money in the long run. It's a fact.
If sports betting was easy, either we'd all be doing it and living in solid gold houses, or the industry would crumble (hint: it'd be the latter). In this article we will address two potential ways to become a successful sports bettor. The first is to simply 'be better' than the bookmakers, and the other is to gain an advantage by following experts.
1. Be better than the bookies
As we've already mentioned, the bookies have a huge amount of resources at their disposal, so to be better than them when it comes to finding value and taking money from them is anything but easy. However, the fact of the matter is that they are continually balancing their books based on how the market is behaving. For example, if everyone is backing Man United to beat Man City, they have to shorten the United price (and increase the City price) to encourage punters to back Man City and balance their books. Bookmakers make a set margin on a given market, so they have some leeway. Their systems will try and ensure a profit regardless of outcome, but sometimes to remain competitive in the market this isn't possible.
Anyway, the point to consider when trying to beat the bookies is to find the value more often than not. Compiling your own prices and therefore gaining the ability to find betting opportunities where the implied odds are greater than the market odds is how you can beat the bookies and make a profit. This is hard to do, but can be done from simple intuition, gaining an understanding of key variables, or something more complex like devising your own models that automatically compile prices. Saying that, even the most complex models aren't guaranteed to profit, that's why there aren't hundreds and thousands of Star Lizard / SmartOdds / Football Radar operations - it's a lot of work. It can be done, though, it takes time and effort but there are people across the globe who can find value in specific leagues, sports or countries. Focus on a specific area, gain an understanding of the league, the teams, the players - any maybe you'll be able to find an edge that leaves the bookies trembling in their boots
2. Folllow the experts
We're going to tell you this is the best way to do it, because we're home of some genuinely profitable tipsters/sports bettors. Trust us though, when we say that this way is the easiest way to profit. The amount of work that goes in to being a profitable sports punter (long term, not just the 95/1 accumulator you won in 2013) is extensive. It requires an in-depth understanding of the league(s) you're looking at, and an ability to understand and identify when prices are incorrect.
Leaving the leg work to someone who is already proven (Tipstrr.com provides a bet-by-bet results area, using verified odds and results) as a profitable bettor means you can focus simply on placing the bets they recommend. Using a sensible bankroll that suits you means that you can remain impartial to the bets and leave your own emotion out of the equation. For many bettors, emotion will often be the cause of their downfall, as it can contribute to a punter losing their discipline, and without discipline you're incredibly unlikely to profit in the long term from sport betting.
So, we recommended following an expert, because your job becomes much easier. However, like any form of investment, putting all your eggs in one basket is rarely the best option. Someone trading the stock exchange won't invest their fund in one company. Instead, they'll diversify, maybe splitting their fund in to 5,6,10,20 companies. This way, the variance is much smaller. You're not going to wake up one day and fine that the 20 companies you've invested in have has their share price halved - but with just one company, this risk is obviously higher,
The same principle applies in sports betting. If you follow one expert in say La Liga, and they have a bad 2 weeks, your betting bank will know about it. However, if you were to follow another expert for the Premier League, another for Bundesliga and maybe one for MLB and NFL, then if the Spain guy has a bad two weks, the Bundesliga guy might have had an amazing week. Following more than one expert is more likely to lead to a steady and consistent profit - provided they have a track record of being profitable, this will often be the best approach. Whether they're a free tipster, or a premium tipster doesn't matter, what matters is their profitability.
Thursday, September 8, 2016