The simplest way to describe dutching is that you do not bet a set stake amount, but instead you bet whatever is needed to target a certain return. This may be £20, £50, £100. You bet your stake accordingly on each of the odds you are betting on and so as long as something wins, you will have a set return that you targeted. How much you bet on each selection is dictated by the odds. You will bet less on higher odds and more on lower odds. You take away the risk of heavy losses on unrealistic odds, and also hope to maximise profits on the more realistic odds. Dutching is probably lesser used now but before betting exchanges arrived on the scene, dutching was used as a more complicated method of laying selections by breaking a stake up over all the other outcomes.
Pros and Cons
- Pro - By minimising stakes on risky sports bets and aiming to maximise profits on more likely selections, you may potentially manage the risk of sports betting quite well.
- Pro - Suppose you have a set amount to bet, but odds really vary. Dutching is a more secure way of staking for a certain return from two evenly staked bets at e.g. 1.80 and 2.20.
- Con - Beginners must beware when using commission or sports betting exchanges, as not accounting for this percentage could ruin your dutching strategy.
- Con - Whilst dutching does protect against bigger losses, it does not serve as the best way of maximising overall returns in the sense that two dutch-stakes winners would return less than two evenly-staked winners.
Dutching involves taking two different bets and splitting a stake between them with the aim that both bets will return the exact same amount. This is not to be confused with arbitrage betting which you can read about here.
The two selections you make can be from different sports, betting markets, anything. The odds don’t need to complement each other in the same way as arbitrage and margins do not matter, but the two selections you choose should ideally be no worse than around 1.75 to 2.35 in price, as otherwise the math doesn’t work, If calculated correctly, you can place this type of bet with the same effect of a guaranteed profit from sports betting providing at least one selection wins.
To provide you with a clear example, let’s take two betting outcomes and call them Player A at 1.75 (3/4) and Team B at 2.35 (27/20). Remember, these can bet totally separate entities and do not need to relate. You may have identified a tennis bet you like for the day and a football bet you like the look of.
Once you have your sports bets you need to decide your stake. Are you betting £10 overall, £25 overall, maybe even £50 overall? As a nice round number £50 will be used for the example. You’re going to bet £50 overall staking on Player A and Team B.
If you decide to stake £25 on each then this is known as level staking. That’s fine. But your returns will be £43.75 on Player A if successful and £58.75 on Team B. You profit from betting if Team B or both selections win, but you’re down if only Player A is successful because you’ve staked £50 and returned £43.75.
Dutching is a type of sports betting that, when done correctly, totally eliminates the chances of any overall losses providing one of two selections win. If both win then you profit handsomely. If just one wins then you do not lose overall and your bankroll is protected. No betting strategy in the world can save you from a loss if you pick two losers.
Implied probability calculation
Implied probability is quite an important tool. If you do not understand implied probability then you will struggle to stake correctly when dutching. There are online calculators out there that can you help you whilst learning, and even for experienced dutch bet users it’s always wise to make sure all calculations are accurate. Below is the most basic equation for working out implied probability. The below equations continue to consider the example when you’re going to bet on Player A at 1.75 (3/4) and Team B at 2.35 (27/20).
In fractional betting odds form: 1 / (3/4 + 1) * 100 = 57.14%
In decimal betting odds form: 1 / (1.75) * 100 = 57.14%
In fractional betting odds form: 1 / (27/20 + 1) * 100 = 42.55%
In decimal betting odds form: 1 / (2.35) * 100 = 42.55%
If you are betting on selections at different prices then you simply amend the part of the equation that is in bold and underlined to reflect the odds you are betting at. Alternatively, you can just use an implied probability calculator.
Now what’s the use of knowing the implied probability? Because now you have the missing piece of the equation to determine how you should spread your stakes on your two selections.
How to stake on a dutch bet
The first part of each equation is (the implied probability of your first selection or your second selection as shown below. This is always divided by the implied probability of one bet added to the implied probability of the other. This number is then multiplied by your overall stake (£50 here) to reveal your stake on each selection.
Amount to stake on Player A = (57.14 / (57.14 + 42.55)) * £50 = £28.65
Amount to stake on Team B = (42.55 / (57.14 + 42.55)) * £50 = £21.35
This equation also works regardless of how many selections are involved. The example returns would be as follows.
£28.65 on Player A at 1.75
£28.65 x 1.75 = £50.13
£21.35 on Team B at 2.35
£21.35 x 2.35 = £50.17
Remember, the aim of this is more to preserve losses when only one or two selections win rather than increase your overall chance of winning per bet. But in the long run, using such a progressive and preventative betting strategy can ensures large amounts of your bankroll remain in tact that otherwise may have been lost.
Dutching helps to protect your bankroll, helps bettors to understand the way betting odds work and the implied probability. It is a betting strategy that anyone can use if they’re focused on a more progressive, lower-risk method to make money from sports betting, but the description alone does suggest that a professional bettor with a long term view may be more likely to employ this method than a casual bettor after the big wins. But then again, dutching does provide the perfect cover if you can match up successful, low risk singles alongside those big betting odds. You can use dutching when betting on literally any sport, but the minimum best odds you can use are 1.75 to 2.35, as that would be enough to return just £0.15 with a £50 overall stake.
It is one of the best betting strategies for protecting the bankroll and also betting accordingly. It takes into account and respects the betting odds, and although there are better ways to make money, it does add a level of cover. Not everyone is going to have the capabilities to win at big odds too often, and those targeting them can really protect themselves with the use of dutching. You only stake as much as the risk suggests you should, and it becomes possible to win, for example, by splitting £50 accordingly on a winner at 1.90 and a loser at 2.30, and still profit a couple of pounds. The aim is to still win two sports bets out of bet for a real profit from betting, but there’s much less risk of losing overall if you can always find one winner.