Anibal Radrizzani - Rugby
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About Anibal Radrizzani - Rugby
Rugby tips for the major leagues in both hemispheres trying to find value bets. Stake mostly flat at 10 (1% of bankroll suggested). Please see the monthly blogs with updated analysis of the performance.
Review: July 2016
July was an "ok" month with performance improving vis-a-vis the disaster in June but still with room for improvement. With flat stakes at 10 there were +15.5 units for profits with a yield of 4.7% in 26 picks. All the picks were for the latter stages of the Super Rugby. By type of bets, Winner (+31.3 units) and Half-Full Time (+12.6) brought most profits compensating bad choices in Handicap Bets (-28.4).
Overall, as of end of July the accumulated yield reached -0.1% improving from -3.4% a of the end of Jun with 183 picks (on a level stakes basis the yield is +4.9%, roughly unchange from the end of June) . Performance in August is so far much better (with good profits from the Olympics Sevens competitions) and let's hope it continues towards the end of the month with the start of the competition in France and the Rugby Championship.
12th August 2016 @ 17:10
Review: June 2016
June results were a disaster. 33.3 units were lost for a yield of -10.1%. There was a mistake in one stake that was supposed to be 1 but it was 10. That pick was lost. Tried another pick at stake 10 to see if that lost pick could be offset but it was lost again. Then I decided that going forward I will keep most picks at stake 10 which is sort of like starting again. With a previous bad performance till those two stake 10, and roughly flat results from there to the end of the month the results for June were shocking. The overall accumulated yield as of the end of June is -3.4% (+9.3% at levels stakes as the average stake as of the end of June is 4.0 vs. 1.5 as of the end of May). So far in July performance picked up and is in positive territory again (sticking to stakes 10) and hopefully will continue to do so for the rest of the month to go back to similar levels as of May (when the accumulated yield was 10.2%). Apologies for the terrible performance in June and the change in stake which I recognise it can be confusing and misleading.
Ps: to avoid further confusion I will continue to stick to mostly stakes 10 and review results including level stakes yields so the performance can be measure without the changes in stakes.
13th July 2016 @ 15:18
Review: May 2016
May 2016 was a very good month overall after a slight loss in April. Added 6.6 units with a yield of 20.1% (21.9% at level stakes) with average odds of 1.32 and 1.5 average state. There were 22 picks (much fewer than in April) with a better control (only 2 losses) for a hit rate of 91%. Looking back it was a month of being very careful (as Northen Hemisphere competitions were coming to an end) and regaining confidence to come back to winning ways. All types of bets (winner, handicap and both halves winner) brought profits this month and also all competitions fared well (most sort of bets and competions with good yields). So far in these three months, the total yield is 10.1% (12.5% at level stakes) for 107 picks with 80% hit rate and average odds of 1.36 and stake of 1.5. June is going to be tough given that we will have fewer matches (including the tricky June Internationals) but looking forward to it!.
31st May 2016 @ 16:37
Review: April 2016
After a stellar performance in March, results in April were poor. P/L was -1.2 units and -1.3% yield for 62 picks. The staking was a problem (losing a few higher stakes bets) and the level stakes yield was a bit higher at -0.9%. But the main problem was that the hit rate at 71% was too low for the odds I like to bet on. In short, there were maybe a bit too many picks at low odds that did not go as expected and the staking did not help. In particular, 4 picks at higher stakes (2-4) than average (1.5) lost -12 units on handicap bets that were not fully offset by 1x2 sorts of bets. Most profits came from France D2, European competitions and the Super Rugby (this one with only a 2% yiled) whilst the English Premiership brought most losses. For the two months so far (March-April) results are ok with +9.9 units for a yield of 7.6% (10.0% at level stakes with average odds of 1.37 and average stake of 1.5). In May things started to look a bit brighter so let's hope it continues that way.
6th May 2016 @ 10:51
Review: March 2016
I'm very happy with the results for the first month (March 2016). There were 23 picks, 22 won and just one lost for a total yield of +36%. The only lost pick was in the Super Rugby but this is where most profits and picks come from (11 picks, yield +31%). Other competitions (French D2, Pro 12 and English Premiershisp) also were very successful although with fewer picks. Most picks (15 out of the 23) were Handicap (both Asian and European) and 1x2 (7 picks). Overall, I'm very satisfied with the results in March and although the yield will naturally go down let’s hope this level of performance continues!
1st April 2016 @ 10:32