I do the hard work so you don't have to. All tips are thoroughly researched and based on getting the best value out of the odds.
I place all of these bets on the Betfair Exchange so that I get the best price and I can trade out if needs be. Do not bet with bookmakers. They rob you. Instead, bet with Betfair Exchange and punt against other people.
I am looking for value over the odds. That is my edge, playing Asian handicap. All selections are backed up with hard statistics and historical data.
As you can see from the history of this page, for a long time I FAILED. I tried many different systems looking to find winners but at the odds it just wasn't working out. I believe you only learn from failure and the corner has been well and truly turned. I am not the tipster I was a year ago or even a month ago. I am evolving daily.
Asian handicap betting: '0' means Draw no bet. If the match is a draw we get our stake back and if the team we are betting on wins, we make the profit. Upside is good with good buffer in case of the match finishing a draw.
+0.5 Asian handicap is the same as double chance. Again, we have three results in our favour. This is a safer way of betting than straight AW/HW.
Sometimes I will advise backing the draw. These come from a reliable source who bets on low-scoring leagues with a high percentage of draws but also good reasoning and not just because they "fancy it". As a general rule, if a game looks like under 2.5 goals then DRAW is usually a good bet.
ROI we can expect between 30-50% over the long-term.
Strike rate should be well over 60%.
If you are following these tips: be aware that not every tip will win. It's better that you take every single tip and use a decent-sized bankroll and stake a certain amount on each tip. There will be losers but the idea is that we get more winners than losers over the long-term and make... PROFIT!
It is also a clever idea to bet a certain percentage of your bank on each tip (say 5%) so that you can take advantage when the bank grows and also decrease your stakes when we hit a losing streak.
Do not use the tips in accumulators. Back them as SINGLES ONLY. Doubles, trebles and accumulators are not value and you are giving margin away to the bookmaker if you place these type of bets.
The edge is in getting the best odds so make sure you bet with Betfair Exchange so that you can grab the best odds on these selections as it is vitally important in ensuring as much profit as possible.
Let's do this together!!
Singles going well
I've stumbled onto some great singles picks lately. In fact, it's not stumbling, I looked for them. Only being let down by ACCAs at the moment but will continue to play them for smaller stakes as I like the way they look, just got to refine a few things. Tend to miss out on ACCAs by one goal or just one team so I am working on my system which should eliminate the *MINES* in the statistics.
Day of the 8th and the evening and early on in the 9th of April was excellent with massive profits. Took advantage of some Asian handicap markets. I've compiled a new spreadsheet which although early days has gone great so far so hopefully there will be more profits to come.
I feel like this is a learning game and despite being in it so long I am still learning. I'm devising new systems all the time and trying to exploit where I think the odds are wrong or where they simply represent good value. Although profit margins still remain relatively low, I am hoping to iron out some losses and increase the profits.
9th April 2017 @ 06:27
Be a Shark
Being very sloppy at the moment, making too many picks, just throwing money away really, chucking bad picks out there. Will get back to what was working and get back on the winning trail. So easy to be seduced by the desire to make more money or just to be "right" as opposed to forecasting what will actually happen in the game.
Discipline is the #1 thing in this game and the only way to truly make a profit. You have to be disciplined enough not to go for big wins and be satisfied with small gains which add up to big wins. I've blown a lot of my profit and my ROI is nowhere near it was. Been trying to look for too much "value" which is just giving the bookmakers their money back, and playing a few poor o/u picks.
Went for Celtic -1.5 and Brugge -1.5 tonight, picked the double as well. Both wrong. They both won, as I knew they would, but the greed to go for a bigger result was just not a good idea. It's very hard to cover that sort of spread in football. Unless you are Barcelona or Real Madrid. The mentality of the team being ahead by 1 goal is usually enough to mean they won't push for more. As long as they win, that's all that matters. The old favorite 1-0 result is powerful. Silly picks.
We all know how hard this game is, betting on sport. You're basically starting already down. In the ocean with bookmakers, they are the sharks and we are the fish who have to swim very fast just to survive, remember that!
We are trying to take the shark's meal and they don't like that.
That's the honesty of sports betting. We must think more like a shark to win and know how to take the easy meals.
Will keep going. It's that or give up.
25th January 2017 @ 21:55
Feel compelled to write a blog post today as it was a very good 2 January 2017.
The results have really been picking up lately. A bit of luck here and there but getting some good forecasts correct.
Today's spanking was due to a well-judged 34/1 7-fold. Now these are insanely risky as you only need one to let you down for the accumulator to fail, but when you make good picks it can be really valuable and turn a small stake into a massive profit.
Besides the accumulator, profit was very good, with all picks winning today.
I'd like to think this is now the average day. Winners across the board. A bad day is a couple of bad picks.
Continuing to work the DNB market, straight HWs and also enjoying the over 2.5 goals at the moment. Spotting trends and doing a bit of reading as others make good suggestions as well.
Really sometimes the bookmakers just give us gifts: West Brom today was 1.85. It didn't look too clever when they were 1-0 down but in the end, their class told and they won easily 3-1.
2nd January 2017 @ 17:52
So the football picks have been revitalised the last couple weeks or so. It's a bit of a new system - still looking for value - but playing the U/O 2.5 goals market. I think some games just have almost an inevitability of having goals in them.
So I am looking for teams which regularly involve high scoring games and using the h2h as a marker as well for games which should have goals. Hopefully, I will be throwing some doubles and trebles together as well because although riskier this is the way to make really good profits to spank the bookies.
4th December 2016 @ 02:26
Good run in the football
With a change of tactics often comes excellent results. Since I have begun focusing mainly on soccer I have started to make good profits and I can see the good run continuing.
The soccer season runs pretty much 365 days a year so there are potential picks every day of the year and with a new system I have devised, I am looking for value and playing the Asian Handicap markets.
The system I am using is looking for prices that I think the bookmaker has got wrong and then taking advantage using +/- 0.5, 1 on the AH markets.
The teams I pick are not "underdogs" - they usually have a great chance of getting the result required. They will oftentimes be ahead in the table and have a very strong history with their opponent. I will then look to take the best price at around the Evens money mark.
Most times we can expect the team I pick to either win or draw. Very occasionally they will lose but I hope to be picking stronger teams that can give us a valuable return.
Let's look forward to some more great picks!
9th October 2016 @ 20:18
Results SummaryPeriod: Sport:
- ROI: 2.38%
- Profit: 402.5
- Tips: 1753
- Win: 48%
- Average Odds: 4.44
Change the date range of results by dragging the chart above.