About enchilada monroe
I am an adult male from Ohio, USA
Since this is a British site/portal I will cite my tips/wagers at bothe North American Moneyline Odds as well
as Euuropean Decimal Odds (and occasionally, I will also cite Fractional Odds)
I will have the Tipstrr staff grade my tips/wagers at the poorest end of representative odds... this ensures that
I can beat all of the online books no matter how poor of a number the bookie is handing out
either "ATS Pointspread" or "O/U Totals Wagers"
A 10- unit bet represents 2% of one's overall bankroll (0,2% unit)...
2% represents a 35% Kelly wager since I believe I have an overall edge or "positive expectation" of 5.5%
Kelly is the optimal way to wager but one trades for extra "profitability" at the expense of "volatility"
What is often overlooked by almost everyone about Kelly (except for "me") is that UNDERBETTING one's Kelly edge is EVERY BIT AS
PROFITABLE as "overbetting" one's Kelly edge.
Since one gains "bankroll safety considerations" by UNDERBETTING then... .....only the "undisciplined bettor" would “overbet” (usually to chase losses)
Bet 2%, I’ll make you money and you can get a good night’s sleep over there in the UK and then...
....see the results when you awaken in the morning.
One does not want to sweat their wagers by betting money that one cannot afford to lose.”
This tipsters tips are private.
There are tips.
1. UPDATED (Jan 15, 2017) Analysis of All-time NHL Ice Hockey results 2. UPDATED (Jan 15, 2017) New Tracking of NHL Ice Hockey Results since December 17, 2016
1. Analysis of All-time NHL Ice Hockey results
Our 4 win - 1 loss NHL Ice Hockey tips yesterday when added to the 2 win -3 loss NHL Ice Hockey tips of January 13th, 2017 have resulted in a new all-time high EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS HIGH of 184.3 Euros we now have a new all-time high of .207.9 Euros
This new all-time high ALSO BECOMES a new all-time basement; the job of any broker(diamonds. stocks, bonds, commodities) is to continuously achieve a new all-time high.
I have admonished you all not to bet into my Americal Football nor Basketball tips UNTIL AFTER 300 TIPS HAVE BEEN GRADED and the dust has settled somewhat and only bet into my NHL Ice Hockey tips
enchilada monroe's NHL Ice Hockey tips results
- ROI: 12.68%
- Profit: 207.9 Euros
- Picks: 164
- Win: 59%
- Average Odds: 1.96
Since all investment markets are cyclical and brokers have ups-and-downs we'll track the number of days it takes me to achieve a new all-time high.
Let's also be honest; this may be my last all-time high and I could tank from here on out.
Simple interest on a bank passbook savings account is the only guaranteed steady growth yet we know that does not even match inflation;
207.9 Euros is our new basement and the new all-time high (achieved on January 14, 2017) which MUST be exceeded.
It has been two (2) betting days and two(2) calendar days since our previous all-time high of 194.7 Euros achieved on January 12th
...which itself was two (2) betting days and two(2) calendar days since our previous all-time high of 184. 3 Euros achieved on January 10th
... which too was three (3) betting days and three (3) calendar days since the all-time 175.5 Euros achieved on January 7th
...which exceeded the basement of the all-time high of 160.6 Euros more than a month ago
SO LIKE ANY INVESTMENT BROKER (diamonds, stocks, bonds, commodities) I can have both POSITIVE as well as NEGATIVE SWINGS our job is always to achieve a new all-time high.
More than a month of losing tips to get back above 160.6 Euros to the 175.5 Euro level.
What distinguishes THE SWINGS between your tipster and your stock broker is that YOU YOURSELF are executing the trades each day; it's the world's worst form of psychological torture YET YOU WOULD EXPERIENCE THE VERY SAME TORTURE if you were executing your own stock trades each day based on tips from your stock broker.
NOW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FROM A DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEW
I've handed out 164 NHL Ice Hockey tips since October 20th (less than 3 months)
If you have been wagering 2% on each play as I recommend you cycle through 100% of your bankroll in the space of executing 50 tips.
YOU ALL KNOW, I pick the POOREST ODDS to have my tips graded at so the 12.68% return on investment (ROI) in my Tipstrr results page for NHL Ice Hockey is legitimate.
You've accumulated 3.28 years (164 tips/ 50) worth of 12.68 % per annum interest each year in less than 3 months.
You fans of Star Trek NOW realize that your bankroll has been in a "time warp"
3% per wager??.... (164 tips/33.33) = 4.92 years of 12.68% interest in less than 3 months
4% is the DEFAULT WAGER at another site where I have begun offering these tips for free which would equate to 6.56 years worth of interest at 12.68% per annum in less than 3 months.
We work 45 years till retirement... if 4% is not overbetting per the Kelly Criterion then in 7 NHL seasons you have achieved your retirement goals and any broker would tell you 12.68% each year would be what you Britons call "smashing."
This the leads into the discussion of ....
OPTIMUM BETTING/WAGERING per the Kelly Criterion
"hindsight is 20/20"
"monday morning quarterbacking"
you can Google search the meaning of those terms used commonly in the United States.
You need to hit 54.26% winners at the bookie's 11/10 to justify a 4% wager each bet.
Since these are what statisticians call INDEPENDENT EVENTS then there is no need for concern about bets being placed simultaneously.
There is a NEED for psychological concern... if I go 0 wins - 4 losses in one day then 1/7th of your bankroll is wiped out.
Many stock brokers use the Kelly Criterion; it is very volatile (even for risk takers like them) and so they maximum out at 50% Kelly.
Since I've been tracking the moneyline performance for US-based bettors I've hit at a 11/10-converted rate of
42.93 winners versus 28.07 losers over the last 71 wagers which would "monday morning quarterback" to a Kelly wager of 17.01% per wager. with my chi-squared Z-score falling to 1.66 standard deviations away from the mean of 0.00
Right there alarm bells/klaxons should start blaring in your head that my current win rate is unsustainable.
But there's a whole lot of difference between 2% and 17.01%
...and if you have to drop down to 1% to stickwith me through the down cycles then do so.
My PRODUCTIVITY GRAPH shows that I pulled out of the nosedive of a few weeks in only a few days; if you were not following me THE ENTIRE TIME through both "bad" and "good" then you missed out.
The varying Inspectors General for the US Department of Labor issued 20 staright warnings for 20 straight years (beginning in 1989) that 70% of the nation's pension funds had NEVER BEEN audited.
Trillions have been stolen; "auditing" is "ground zero" for fulfilling one's fiduciary duty.
You need to get out of "paper currency" and into "hard currency" like 1/10th South African Krugerrands or British Sovereigns (where a WHOLE DIFFERENT bunch of scam artists are trying to sell you over-priced precious metals) and research honest brokers in those fields.
This "time warp" for your bankroll can help.
Regardless, it's time to sit down with the missus sometime soon after supper one evening and revise the discussion of one's retirement strategy.
It's one hell of a world when one cannot trust the politicians to protect your retirement funds and you have to resort to sports betting.
I'll post a separate blog entry for you and the missus too read together some evening soon.
I'm also trying to ascertain why what should be winning Basketball and American Football bets are underperforming; if we can get the ship righted then my followers stand a good chance of having enough paper currency to worry about trading it in for precious metals.
2. New Tracking of NHL Ice Hockey Results since December 17, 2016
This newer tracking method is to address what I would imagine would be the presumptive concerns of US-based players and Britons no longer allowed to bet into Pinnacle nor SBObet and are left alone with 188bet as the sole provider of the -0.5 goal Asian Handicap Inc OT alternative puck line.
I strongly recommend a MANUAL MANUFACTURING an IMPERFECT yet CLOSE approximation as I describe in the comments section I include with each tip (click on the MATCH and it will open up a new screen with my analysis) .
THE QUESTION FOR PLAYERS IN THE USA as well as Britons unable to bet into Pinnacle nor SBObet lines
What would the moneyline betting of these prohibitive favorites look like.
It certainly expands the offerings out there of available books
I only recommend 5 Dimes, Heritage & the Bookmaker(USA) / CRIS(worldwide) family to you all if you have no access to Pinnacle; I won't go into the reasons here.
5 Dimes and Heritage are reduced-juice up to $500 wagers. Bookmaker/CRIS is full-juice.
Eventually, you hope to be forced EITHER to be banned and placed inside a safe FULL-JUICE book OR IN THE ALTERNATIVE,...
.....pack up your belongings, tearfully kiss your family, friends & other loved ones goodbye forever and emigrate to a country that Pinnacle at 1.96 decimal/-104 moneyline will accept your action.
THE TRACKING since December 17. 2106
The lines used were 5 Dimes reduced juice (1.95 European Decimal Odds.... -105 North American Moneyline Odds... 21 /20 Fractional Odds).
I have converted the moneyline percentages at reduced juice into the standard 11/10 percentages at full juice.
1. My handicapping technique has generated 71 plays/tips in only 29 days (let's hope I can get profitable in American Football and Basketball and baseball... at 2+ picks per day all year round we'd kill any other investment vehicle).
2. We have 51 winners and 20 losers (71.83%) at the prohibitive moneyline favorite average odds of 1.58 European Decimal Odds/ -170 North American Moneyline Odds
3. Converting to standard Asian Handicap/ATS Pointspread at FULL JUICE (11/10 fractional ... 1.91 decimal... -110 moneyline) results in a winning percentage of:
42.93 wins and 28.07 losses (60.46%) at FULL JUICE
60.46 % winners at full-juice 1.91 decimal odds/-110 moneyline odds
So you can bet the reduced-juice moneyline wagers at many online betting shoppes and still be assured of not suffering; it allows you to risk slightly more but I recommend betting 2% per play till we have 300 wagers graded.
60.46% winners at full-juice 1.91 decimal odds/-110 moneyline odds..
....at 2+ picks/tips per day which are being given out for free
"Good" or "just lucky"?
The Unfair Coin Test
With only 71 wagering events it's not really meaningful at this point but we are 1.66 Standard Deviations away from the mean of 0.00 which would mean how likely is it that we are betting into an UNFAIR COIN that is weighted in our favor at the bookie's 11/10...
..are we really using a FAIR COIN and just getting lucky?
We'd like to get around 2.50 Standard Deviations away from the mean of 0.00 after around 300 picks
..but we're on the right track at present.
11th January 2017 @ 07:05
Typical Game Analysis provided for Ice Hockey Tips
Pinnacle at 1.47 European decimal odds
bet365 at 1.44 decimal odds
We'll have Tipstrr grade this tip at William Hill's 1.40 European Decimal odds/-250 North American Moneyline Odds so that my followers never have to experience neither the "uncertainty" nor "frustration" of wagering/betting their hard-earned Euros into poorer lines than what this tip is graded at.
No CHERRY PICKINNG of the most favorable odds (which are the chief complaint of subscribers to these handicappers portals... all of them)> I'll always have my tips graded at EITHER the POOREST ODDS out there or the POORER END of representative odds.
I'm still slumping in winning % in North American Football and Basketball but I am within 8.1 Euros/Pounds Sterling/U.S Dollars of my all-time high in NHL Ice Hockey.
I make no apologies; I handicap each event the same way and this produces a subset of bettable games to wager into.
I have admonished you all only to bet into my Ice Hockey selctions and let the dust settle over 250 - 300 tips in Basketball and North American Football ( I am profitable in Soccer... I know a lot of you Britons hate the word "Soccer" but I use it to distinguish it from American Football)
I am however grateful to be within striking distance of my all-time high in NHL Ice Hockey.
The name of the game in any type of investment (diamonds, commodities, stocks, bonds, etc) is for your broker to consistently beat hs PREVIOUS all-time high.
It is the investment equivalent of "what have you done for me lately?"
Let's see if tonight's pick can get us 1/2 of the 8.1 Euro deficit back.
30th December 2016 @ 15:09
Ice Hockey Wagering Philosophy
Description of how to create/manufacture an IMPERFECT APPROXIMATION of the -0.5 goal Asian Handicap alternative puck line is contained in a blog posting.
The 3 European betting shoppes (Pinnacle, 188bet, SBObet)which offer TRUE -0.5 goal Asian Handicap alternative puck lines do not accept US-based player accounts.
I'll always have my tips graded at the POORER END of these 3 available lines so that you can be assured of being able to go online and find odds that you can actually bet into AS OPPOSED TO finding poorer odds than what these tips get graded at.
The late Huey Mahl pointed out that in parimutuel horse race wagering that "place" bets/wagers on every FAVORITE would return $0.96 on every $1.00 wagered and that the TASK of the capable handicapper was to "cull out" false favorites.
This is what I attempt to replicate here in Ice Hockey; to wit, not placing bets on favorites that do not meet certain specific criteria.
I'm doing OK on Ice Hockey but not so well in other sports.
4th December 2016 @ 15:50
Calculating Hybrid Goal Lines manually for NHL Ice Hockey
These HYBRID Asian Handicap Including Overtime bets
such as tonight’s Washington Capitals -0.5 goals over the San Jose Sharks …
.... if not offered by your local online betting shoppe CAN BE MANUFACTURED MANUALLY by ...
...dividing one’s wager between the -1.0 goal (+151 moneyline odds /2.51 decimal odds ) offering ...
.....and the (-125 moneyline/1.80 decimal moneyline “1x2 inc overtime”).
NOTE TO USA-based PLAYERS:
The -0.5 goal Asian Handicap alternative puck line is not readily available at online betting shoppes which cater to Yanks.
An IMPERFECT yet CLOSE APPROXIMATION can be manually manufactured by wagering 60% to 70% at the moneyline wager and the balance of 30% to 40% at -1.0 goals.
If the team wins by 2 goals then both bets cash
If the team wins by 1 goal then the 30% is returned and one wins the moneyline wager.
The difference occurs when a tie occurs after the NHL OT period and shootout.
The entire 70% would be returned where it would be a loser at the European betting shoppes.
8th November 2016 @ 19:16
Results SummaryPeriod: Sport:
- ROI: 4.26%
- Profit: 149.5
- Tips: 361
- Win: 60%
- Average Odds: 1.82
Change the date range of results by dragging the chart above.