Fade the Favorites

This model targets underdogs in profitable spots across different sports on the money line and on the spread/handicap.

The principal sports this model follows are the NFL, MLB, EPL & NBA.

If everyone bets on favorites, all sportsbooks would've been broke by now. As matter of fact, oddsmakers used advanced formulas to make sure players don't take advantage of favorite teams. For example, last season, Manchester City won 26 games out of 38, if you had betted all those 38 Manchester City games, you would've won 26 bets, right? But what about the profit? There's none, you would've lost 3.2% of your investment.

I used advanced betting systems in which I find profitable spots for underdogs. The optimal sample size most math people use to quantify things is 200, so all of my systems have a minimum sample size of 200 games. They also use a standard confidence level of 95%, I also use this confidence level as well. This means that there is a 95% probability that the theories of the systems are true. Note that this STILL means that there is a 5% chance that this is false.

Staking unit plan:

1 unit = $20

10 units = $200

Average unit bet = 5u = $100

Here are the betting systems I used, they're published with their sample size, winning record, and ROI. When I publish a pick I will note the number of the system so you guys know what system we are using for that particular play. This might help you decide how many units to bet or simply decide to place the bet or not.

Current season records will be updated at the end of each week (Sunday night or Monday morning.)

As you may notice, the winning percentage doesn't matter that much, the ROI % is what matters the most to me. All EPL systems don't have any winning % but have very profitable ROIs.

MLB:

System #1 - Betting underdogs receiving 35% of public bets* vs teams with winning record (Sample size 1294 games, 41% winning rate, ROI 11%) (Current season: Sample size 66 games, 35% winning rate, -4% ROI)

*This is using the betting percentages compiled from actual bets placed at seven sportsbooks in the United States only.

System #2 - Betting teams after a certain number of games of the season start with a losing record vs teams with a winning record (Sample size 804 games, winning record 50%, 11% ROI) (Current season: Sample size: 61 games, 44% winning record, 2% ROI)

System #3 - Games in which pitchers from both teams meet and a certain ERA* range and the betting team is the underdog (Sample size 671 games, 54% winning rate, 8% ROI) (Current season: Sample size: 60, 70% winning record, 30% ROI)

*Earned Run Average (ERA) is a statistic used to measure any given pitcher's effectiveness.

System #4 - Interleague games in which the game meets certain conditions and of course the betting team has to be the underdog. (Sample size: 800 games, 63% winning record, 11% ROI) (Current season: 40 games, 63% winning rate, 22% ROI)

System #5 - Playing underdog team on the spread line, receiving less than 24% of public bets* versus a team with a winning record (Sample size: 981 games, 59% winning rate, 8% ROI) (Current season: 66 games, 53% winning rate, 2% ROI)

*This is using the betting percentages compiled from actual bets placed at seven sportsbooks in the United States only.

System #6 - This system is solely based on playing the Baltimore Orioles only when they receive strong support from certain betting syndicates. (Sample size: 201 games, 59% winning record, 15.3% ROI) (Current season: 3 games, 67% winning record, 86% ROI)

System #7 - This system is also based on playing only one team on the spread; the New York Yankees, when they play certain teams after a specific number of games during the season. (Sample size: 552 games, 56% winning rate, 13% ROI) ( Current season: 36 games, 56% winning rate, 14% ROI)

System #8 - This system is based on playing underdogs in divisional games where the game meets specific betting percentages. (Sample size: 1,375 games, 46% winning rate, 11% ROI) ( Current season: 76 games, 29% winning rate, -26% ROI)

System #9 - This betting system is based on playing underdog teams during the last stretch of the season and the games meet other specific criteria. (Sample size: 410 games, 50% winning rate, 13.4% ROI) (Current Season: 18 games, 56% winning rate, 28%)

System #10 - This system is based on playing teams on the spread/handicap line with a winning record and when they're underdogs and games meet other specific criteria. (Sample size: 602 games, 67% winning rate, 8% ROI) (24 games, 68%, 9% ROI)

System #11 - This system is based on games between divisional teams and the opposing team has a winning record above .500 and meet other specific conditions. I think this is the largest sample size betting I've created this it has a low 4% ROI but this season it's got a decent 8% ROI. Also, the winning rate is very low 38% but since the odds have great value, there's a profit. (Sample size: 2908 games, 38% winning rate, 4% ROI) (Current season: 198 games, 35% winning rate, -1% ROI)

System #12 - This system is based on playing teams with a winning record after a certain amount of games in the season and of course they're underdogs. (Sample size: 675 games, winning rate 50%, 12% ROI) (Current season: 39 games, 56% winning rate, 23% ROI)

NFL:

System #13 - This system is based on teams with a winning record not performing well late in the season (Sample size: 381 games, 56% winning rate, 11% ROI) (Current Season 2-4, 33% winning rate, -37% ROI)

System #14 - This system is based on playing teams with a losing record during a specific period of the season: (Sample size: 232 games, 63% winning rate, 21.8% ROI.) (Current season: 10-4-0, 71% winning rate, 32% ROI.)

System #15 - This system is based on which the game meets certain ATS (Against the Spread) percentages for both teams during specific games of the season. (Sample size: 311 games, 56% winning rate, 8% ROI) (Current season: 15-13-1 games, 54% winning rate, 3% ROI.)

System #16 - This system is based on underdog teams that had a losing record in the previous season when playing on the road and the game meets specific criteria. (Sample size: 383 games, 61% winning rate, 21% ROI.) ( Current Season: 6-2 games 75% winning rate, 44% ROI)

System #17 - This system is based on playing underdogs early in the season in divisional games and the game has to meet other specific criteria. (Sample size: 243 games, 49% winning rate, 20.2% ROI)(Current Season: 14 games 36% winning rate, -12% ROI.)

System #18 - This system fades steam moves* from certain betting syndicates, and the spread range has to be very specific. (Sample size: 241 games, 63% winning rate, 22% ROI.) (Current Season: 1 game, 100% winning rate, 93% ROI)

*Steam Moves: It is a sudden drasic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace caused by a betting syndicate, wiseguys, or sharp players.

System #19: This system is based on underdog teams that come from a heavy loss and when they're visitors. (Sample size: 495 games, 56% winning rate, 7.8% ROI) (Current season: 10-9 games, 53% winning rate, 1% ROI.)

System #20: This system plays against the public, which means betting on the team receiving less than 24% of public bets. (Sample size: 259 games, 59% winning rate, 14.9% ROI.) (Current Season: 1-6 game, 14% winning rate, -73% ROI.)

System #21 - This system is based on home teams playing as underdogs during the last stretch of the season and the game meets other specific criteria. (Sample size: 251 games, 57% winning rate, 11.7% ROI) (Current Season: No stats yet)

System #22 - This system is based on underdogs teams playing on the road from the NFC Conference and the money line meets a very specific range. (Sample size: 356 games, 32% winning rate, 24.3% ROI.) (Current season: 3-9 games, 25% winning rate, -11% ROI.)

System #23 - This system is based on games playing teams after losing a game receiving a certain percentage of public money. (155-97-4, 62% winning rate, 19% ROI.)(Current Season: 4-0, 100% winning rate, 91% ROI.)

English Premier League:

System #24 - This system is based on playing underdogs during specific months of the season and meet other criteria. (Sample size: 584 games, 25% winning rate, 21% ROI.) (Current Season: 17 games, 17% winning rate, -58%)

System #25 - This system is based on playing underdogs in which the previous head-to-head result was negative meet other specific criteria. (Sample size: 639 games, 23% winning rate, 20% ROI.) (Current Season: 10 games, 20% winning rate, -3% ROI)

System #26 - This system is based on playing underdogs during specific periods of the season and the game meets very other conditions. (Sample size: 331 games, 28% winning rate, 35% ROI.)(Current Season: 1 game, 100% winning rate, 296% ROI.)

System #27 - This system plays underdogs early in the season and the other team meets other criteria. (Sample size: 300 games, 31% winning rate, 17% ROI.) (Current Season: 19 games, 26% winning rate, -30% ROI)

System #28 - This system plays underdogs during a specific number of games of the season and the winning percentage for both teams has to meet certain conditions. (Sample size: 290 games, 44% winning rate, 17% ROI.)

Last season the only profitable EPL betting system was system #26. I don't know if it had anything to do that there was no public in the stadiums but I'll keep a close watch on these systems.

*System #24 has been the only one with profits so far.

NCAAF

System #29 - This system is based on playing road teams, the spread/handicap is above 7 points, and the game meets other criteria. (Sample Size: 658 games, 59% winning rate, 15%) (Current Season: 15 games, 70% winning rate, 35% ROI)

System #30 - This system is based on playing road teams in which they lost by 9 points or less and the game meets other criteria. (Sample Size: 480 games, 60% winning rate, 17% ROI)(Current Season: 10 games, 67% winning rate, 29% ROI.)

System #31 - This system is based on playing teams on a losing streak, it's a conference game and the game meets other criteria. (Sample Size: 337 games, 61% winning rate, 20% ROI)(Current Season: 11 games, 73% winning rate, 20% ROI.)

System #32 - This system is based on underdogs, they're visitors and meet specific betting percentages. (Sample Size: 471 games, 58% winning rate, 12% ROI)(Current Season: 4 games, 75% winning rate, 44% ROI)

NBA

System #33 - This system is based on home underdogs and both teams on the court have to have a certain winning percentage, of course since we're playing the underdog they're most likely to have a losing record. (Overall record: 420-314-14, winning rate 57%, 12% ROI)(No stats for the current season.)

System #34 - This system plays underdog teams with a losing record after a certain amount of games of the start of the season. (Overall record: 184-124-6, winning rate 60%, 16% ROI)

System #35 - This system plays teams on specific months of the season who have had more resting days than the opposing team. (112-83-2, winning rate 57%, 12% ROI.)

System #36 - This system plays home underdog teams on the money line during certain months of the season. (Overall record: 333-466, 41% winning rate, 17% ROI)

System #37 - This system plays underdogs on the money in the first half of the game during specific months of the year and meets other criteria. The webpage isn't allowing to publish the first half bets on any sport for some reason, I already contacted them about this and I'm just waiting for their answer. (Overall record: 812-1168-78, 41% winning rate, 11% ROI)(Current Season: 2-1, 67% winning rate, 90% ROI)

I will publish these picks as posts, unfortunately, these stats will not count towards my stats.

NHL

FREE Picks (542-311, 64% winning rate, 11%)

System #38 - This system plays teams on a losing streak and meets other criteria. (Overall Record: 215-254, 46% winning rate, 10% ROI)

System #39 - This system is based on teams whose previous games lost by 3 points or more during specific periods of the season. (Overall record: 217-237, 48% winning rate, 10% ROI)