Every month, I will post one informative article about professional betting. The first article is about value bets and how to calculate value.
What is a Value Bet, and how can you make it work?
Use the value betting method to make the best bets and guarantee long-term profitability.
A bookmaker will consider the likelihood of an event happening when setting odds. This could be anything, from who will win a soccer match to who will win a tennis match to who will be eliminated on a reality TV series.
Because sport is unpredictable, they sometimes underestimate the likelihood of something happening. Bookmakers employ specialized staff to calculate the odds. Some punters might find these odds too high. This situation can lead to a situation where you may be offered higher odds than you should - a value wager.
If the following formula is used, a bet can be considered a value wager:
Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) -1. If the value is 1.08-1, it means that a value wager has been made.
A value bet is an example
Tennis match between Rafael Nadal & Daniil Medvedev. Nadal will win 1.5, Medvedev 2.2
Nadal has a 75% chance of winning the match based on the current match format. According to the bookmaker, the odds of the Spaniard winning are 66.67%. Your opinion is that the odds of Nadal winning are lower, and 1.5 is too high. Therefore, you consider this a value wager. As you can see, even though Nadal has a chance of winning and no fortune will be won, this is still a good value bet.
To find the best value, you will need to calculate the probability of the events. If you are accurate in your estimations, your chances of winning your bets will exceed the odds. This will allow you to make a long-term profit. Remember that sports are unpredictable.
Value bets are difficult because you have to be able to calculate probabilities better than the bookmakers. This may seem impossible at first glance, as bookmakers have many powerful tools at their disposal.