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About poglavica


My nickname is Poglavica and I'm 44 years old from Zadar, Croatia. I'll provide you with detailed coverage of all betting events including teams/players from Croatia. It will be my pleasure to serve you with interesting facts and statistics and to share my 10 years of betting experience with you.

Just to let you know, I'm a Hajduk Split supporter since I can walk, and active member of the Torcida, the oldest football firm in Europe (established: 1950). For your and my own sake I will keep previews and advises on Hajduk Split on an absolute minimum.

Value betting

Over the years of my betting career I've developed a "sixth" sense for value. The most important aspects in finding value are specialization and understanding probabilities. That said you'll in most cases receive well researched underdog picks, as the underdogs are the "ones" where the value lies. Of course, my own calculated probability is included in such picks. Betting on teams that nobody thinks they've any chance to win is in most cases the way to go.

Own model

All sports are based on my own developed betting model. Those models use extended statistics collected over a 10 year period (but just the last 5 years are relevant for the model itself). Based on those available stats, and other important rules I’ve defined myself (differing from sport to sport of course), finally produce a pick if the edge over a bookmaker and his posted odds is given. I’ve automated those models with self-programmed logic as I’m coming from an IT background (UNIX System Engineering).

General Information about my service

Odds will be taken at high limit bookmakers only (see list below list). Therefore, everyone is able to bet as much as he wants at the same odds I post them.

I strongly recommend the following high limit bookmakers for high limit users:

  1. Pinnacle
  3. 188bet
  4. Dafabet
  5. 5dimes, (US sports mostly)
  6. Bet365 (combo picks but lower limits!)

For lower limits you're free to choose from your favorite bookmaker or the bookmaker with the highest odds.

This Service will consist of picks from the following sports:

  • football (3 leagues: 1) Italy Serie A, 2) England EPL & 3) Croatia HNL)
  • basketball (3 leagues: 1) European competitions incl. Croatian teams, 2) Croatia A1 league & 3) ABA league)
  • Ice Hockey (2 leagues: 1)Russian KHL Hockey & 2) NHL)
  • US sports picks (3 leagues/sports: 1) NBA, 2) NFL & 3) MLB)
  • Croatian teams involved in various sports (Handball, Volleyball, Water Polo, Football, Tennis, Basketball etc.)
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Money management & other important info

Money Management

I can't stress the importance of a proper money management enough. It's absolutely essential to manage your bankroll and placing reasonable stakes to retain you from betting too much on a single event. The objective is to maximize the return on your investment (ROI), but with a controlled and minimized risk to avoid bankruptcy with long-term losing streaks. Of course, we all don't want that to happen, but losing streaks can't be excluded from betting at all, they happen from time to time.

My money management system is defined by the following variables:

"Kelly Method" with a 10% fraction (fractional Kelly) and a "maximum limit of 5%" (5/5 stake) per bet including a "Rolling bankroll management".

The Kelly Criterion helps us to decide what percentage of our bankroll will be placed on each event. This varies from event to event and depends on both;

  • expected value
  • odds taken

The expected value has to do with the probability (estimation) assigned to an event by myself and its comparison with the implied probability within the available odds. Those ingredients define the "edge" over the odds posted by a bookmaker. If the edge is > 0 then a pick is released.

The Kelly Method is very interesting from a theoretical point of view, but it’s too risky if the same is applied in its full version (Full Kelly) as it suggests always high stakes. By applying the Kelly formula with a 1/10 fraction, the results are much more reasonable and conservative. The outcome is just the result of multiplying the Full Kelly result by 0.10. Moreover, I'm adding the restriction that the wager will never be higher than 5% of the available bankroll. In order to fully define our money management, it’s necessary to determine what kind of bankroll we use to calculate the stakes. Here are the two options:

  • Rolling bankroll

You update your bankroll after every pick. That means that if there are profits you reinvest them. Eventual losses reduce your bankroll on the other end. That way, we maximize our winnings, but reduce our possible losses.

  • Fixed bankroll

You always use the initial bankroll to calculate your bet amount. It’s as if you spent the money you have won or replaced the money you have lost.

I strongly recommend using a rolling bankroll strategy. If things go well you capitalize on your profits and growth can be exponential. Meanwhile, if you hit a losing run and things go wrong for some time, you reduce the risk progressively. Of course, if you want to spend your hard-earned betting money, you will have to use a fixed bankroll strategy. That said, you should now know everything about one of the essential factors in successful betting - proper money management.

My own model (system)

Any System is developed with the idea behind it to produce profits every month. Do not follow sports for the sake of gambling, nor be simply fans. Sports investing is strictly business, and as awful as it may sound, you do it for the money. The truth is a good System is not about gambling on sports. It is about following the system and winning in the long run. Treat sports investing as a business. Do not gamble. Money management is at the heart of long-term success in any System.

In addition to access to winning predictions and picks, money management is the key factor in determining the success or failure of a handicapping system. Money management principles are frequently overlooked, but failing to exercise proper money management can destroy a winning system. By chasing short-term losses, being inconsistent and aggressive with wager sizes, or not properly limiting the impact of a losing streak, a successful long-term system can have devastating short-term results. Even if a system is winning, poor money management will lead to losses. Money management is essential in any system.

The concept of proper money management can seem obscure to undisciplined bettors. Money management involves incorporating controlled bankroll risk into a system on a weekly basis. Determining how much to risk is a crucial factor in a successful system, and conservative long-term approaches to money management systems are extremely profitable. Money management helps sustain profits while limiting risk through consistency. Because risk is unavoidable, proper money management strategy requires discipline to earn a profit while mitigating losses. In the end, money management is crucial to success. Money Management and Following the System Is Everything!


I use only sportsbooks with an A rating (SBRodds ratings). As a direct results, those books do not limit winning bettors/investors and I haven't been limited so far.

Betting experience

With 14 years of sports investing experience, I’ve pretty much seen it all. I’ve seen heartbreaking upsets, incredible winning streaks, and dramatic losses. I've experienced every heart-wrenching, nerve-racking moment that sports investing has to offer.

In the end, I’m certain that there’s nothing like the thrill of winning. That incomparable thrill is magnified by committing to a winning, disciplined system that prevails over all other factors. There are many "secrets" to my success that I could explain at length. From experience, I know the importance of developing a winning strategy and committing to it.


I certainly have a traditional approach, which doesn’t always translate to the ravenous, young world of sports betting. Still, I will try to break down the keys to sustaining a winning approach to sports investing. The best advice I can give centers on developing a successful mindset. Part of my old-fashioned approach to sports betting is a focus on the mindset of a successful sports investor. A successful sports investor must break free from the flawed mindset of the sports gambler. Professional sports investors treat gambling as a business, while sportsbooks make their money on emotional gamblers that will eventually lose. In the end, there would be no gambling industry if not for the masses of losers.

Consistency and a long-term mindset are crucial to success as a sports investor. Having a long-term mindset is more than simply setting goals for how much profit you’d like to make in the future. Consistency is more than betting that same way every time. In fact, the greatest characteristic that successful sports investors share is an unshakeable detachment from outcomes.

Professional handicappng services

Many sports investors question the value of seeking professional handicapping services for advice. Since data is publicly available, it can sometimes be difficult to understand the value of a professional service. Truth be told, it’s virtually impossible to gain a competitive edge, much less exploit sports book odds for a profit, without dedicating hours upon hours to the craft.

Working with a professional handicapper for sports investing is like working with a stock broker while developing a financial portfolio. Even though information is publicly available, time and professional experience give expert systems value.

The most challenging issue regarding the use of professional handicapping services is the abundance of fraudulent services in the market. The key to finding success following an expert handicapper is distinguishing reputable handicapping services from money-stealing scams. Be wary of services that offer “free” picks. Remember, free cheese only exists in the mousetrap! Certain guarantees from handicapping services give the illusion of credibility, but many are built into the scam. For instance, an offer of an extra week of service if the user fails to generate a profit is hardly a guarantee at all. A guarantee for an extra week of a faulty product only doubles your losses in the end, while the handicapping service scheme keeps all payments. The only legitimate guarantee is for your money back, and even then you’ve lost your investment on whatever picks the losing service has generated for you.

In the end, winning is all that matters with a handicapping service. The key to winning in sports investing is setting long-term goals, utilizing proper money management, and acquiring the guidance of a winning handicapper. Winning is what sports investing is all about. With hard work, discipline, money management, and some luck, sports betting can be an exciting and profitable form of investment. Avoid the tricks of fraudulent services and find a winning handicapper!

Stock Market vs. Betting Market

Whilst I am not a stock broker, I am familiar with stocks and shares (due to my Banking and IT Systems background), the forex markets and long-term investments such as ISA's, pensions and saving plans. So, I looked at the similarities:

If I was to become (or hire) a stockbroker, or to become (or hire) a sports investment broker, which is easier to do:

  1. place an investment on a sports game between two teams with only one possible outcome, a Win or a Loss. I will only place this investment after following a simple structured step-by-step process that highlights an edge to find the winner;
  2. or is it easier to try to find an edge in a corporation listed on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange? With the stock market, you would have to understand the company, its products, the market, the competition, the management team, their research and development, forecasts, pipeline, cash-flow, debt structures, sales team, contracts, the economy, etc.

To me, this is clear; finding an edge on a sports game is far easier that finding an edge on a listed company.

With the access to software, systems, websites and social media, you have all you need at your fingertips. With only two teams going head to head, I see this opportunity significantly greater in sports investing in comparison to taking your money to a stockbroker or investing yourself in the stock market.

So here we have it! You are now a proud owner of a Sports Investment Company, you are not a bettor or a gambler. Your company finds an edge on a sports game and invests in an opportunity, with an element of risk, and with the aim to receive a monthly profit margin of 20% or higher. You job is to select a game, find an edge, minimize that risk and maximize the return.

25th March 2016 @ 22:28

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