"LITTLE AND OFTEN"
“themysterytiptser” I am a semi-professional horse racing punter with an expert knowledge of UK and Irish racing both National Hunt and Flat. I use specific parameters devised over years of industry analysis and statistical records of horse, track, jockey and trainers to hit long winning streaks on the win and placed markets of a betting exchange. Typically boasting a 60% win strike rate and 80% placed monthly I hit massively profitable winning streaks adjacent to any starting stake big or small. Please read my "HOW TO BET" blog below to see what its all about. Any question e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org or DM on twitter @tipstermystery
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How to Bet- themysterytipster System
My system is simple and lends itself ideally to a betting exchange such as betfair. Firstly chose your stake, you will have to deposit 2 stakes into your betting account at once for the system to work correctly. Staking is explained more thoroughly later in the “how to bet” section. So if your starting stake is £20 you add £40, £100 you add £200, £1000 you add £2000 and so on. My preference is to only have this money alone in my betting account, other tipsters advise having a pot and taking from this but my experience tells me discipline is key, no one is a robot and with money not allocated in a betting account it is easy to back lesser fancies or chase losses and become a mug.
The rest is now simple, simply back the horses I select to both win with one stake and place with the other stake. For example;
Takingrisks 12.05 Kelso, £100 @ 2.26 Win and £100 @ 1.20 Place
I then compound all my winnings onto the next selection on both markets. For example;
Barters Hill 14.00 Newbury, £226 @ 1.66 Win and £120 @ 1.16 Place (baring commissions)
This then leaves our win pot at £375.16 and our place pot at £139.20 for the tips next day.
Tips are daily but the system only runs 85% of days throughout the year as some days there are not sufficiently fancied horses to back. I always add horses to the “Interest selections” section daily and also occasionally add Lay bets.
Typically I am looking for trebles and beyond on the win market pot to really profit and at least 5 placed selections before any withdrawal from the place pot, the place market has regularly hit 10 placed selections and historically hit up to20. It is completely up to you when you withdraw profit, I will advise when I withdraw mine or you can hold your nerve for the next selection?
The system over time has proven to at the very least lose no money, the placed accumulator in hard times covers the losses on the win market. During profitable periods both lines can offer exceptional profitablility.
Staking (Stake Plan) - This is the most important part of successful punting in my opinion. Chose a stake and stick with it, no double stake days no one off big bets, chose an affordable stake and stick to it. The only way we can successfully analyse our selections and winning streaks over time is to stick to a selected stake. Every punter/ tipster hits losing streaks it’s only natural, I am here to try to steer us through as little of these as possible. Greed is the quickest way to the poor house, little and often, as long as the outcome is income we are happy.
Drifting- The correlation between horses that drift and then either fall out the stalls or run poorly according to my analysis is very common. This is also supported by many professional punters; Dave Nevison speaks about this in his book “A Bloody Good Winner”. The price of a selection is always changeable on an exchange that is the whole point but and marked drift in a selections price I would advise not to bet. For example if a selection is 1.86 to win and in the 10 minutes before the race it drifts to 2.5 I would leave this particular bet.
Timing of bet- This leads us to the timing of the bet, try to leave it as late as possible unless I tell you otherwise, often the market can offer massive clues and exchange patterns can be spotted. I will tip up my selections in the hour before racing starts on any given day; it is the up to you to follow the given parameters with discipline.
Prices- Of course we all want regular 20/1 winners but this is not realistic in the real world, the system I apply often backs horses mature in the market because I believe the market is a good guide to the chances of a selection. No punter has got rich backing only odds on selections but a good mix of shorter and longer prices is what I offer. Often the prices on the place market are very low but remember a price of 1.15 is a 15% profit on investment, you wouldn’t get that in a bank would you?
8th March 2016 @ 11:28