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ThunderStrike

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About ThunderStrike | An Introduction

The ThunderStrike team have experience across multiple careers relating to sports trading, research and risk management from a commercial perspective. In 2013 we switched the focus to delivering a product that can help members achieve considerable and sustained profit from simply placing a few bets each week. We advocate more than just providing profitable selections - our bankroll management approach allows subscribers to place bets in a structured, controlled and disciplined manner. The focus is always long term but every single selection provides value backed up by data driven research. Our team identifies discrepancies between the implied probability (from bookmaker/exchange odds) and the true odds of an outcome occurring.


As a subscriber you can expect clear, simple advice. A typical week will consist of a small number of bets where the market, bookmaker, minimum odds and stake are all clearly stated. Major leagues are covered to make bookmaker limitations less probable and for exchange users liquidity more accessible. Try us with a free trial. There are no obligations. Cancel anytime if you wish. All we ask new members is that before subscribing please; set aside a separate bankroll, decide on an amount to bet per unit and stay consistent, never chase losses and stay focused on long term attainment.

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Gowran 13:10 | Member Update | Sat 15 Feb

A single selection today running at Gowran. This has been added and is available for subscribers. Another solid day yesterday in terms of profit, return on investment and strike rate. We know consistency is important to our members and bankroll swings can be difficult to manage so the variance of most selections will be lower going forward to reduce the aforementioned fluctuations.

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7/8 Winners

Seven of the past eight bets have won yielding a significant profit. We remain committed to delivering for our long term subscriber base. There is a trial available for new members and the subscription cost has been cut to increase accessibility.

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Selective Approach

The ThunderStrike team have been working hard behind the scenes over recent months. The outcome is a change in approach. From this point forward the volume of selections will be decreased significantly. As the old saying goes ‘quality over quantity’. Our criteria for selections has become more strict with a high margin of value required for advisory.

On average there will be around two selections per week going forward. This should not only increase the profitability of the service but also make it easier and more practical to follow.

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Exchanges | ThunderStrike Results Synopsis

The portfolio continues to deliver. This seems like a good opportunity to address why, with virtually all bets advised, there is an exchange price quoted in the description. 

Short Answer? Exchanges will increase profits by 10-15% on average versus using a typical bookmaker.

Long Answer: The bookmaker margin can exceed 5% at many sites and this makes it difficult to profit long term or at the very least eat into the profit attained. The other issue is that most (almost all) bookmakers will limit your account or even close it entirely if the member profits over a sustained period.

Exchanges do not limit successful accounts they just charge commission on each matched bet or ‘transaction’. This can be 2% or lower on some sites and combined with the fact exchange odds have no margin built in - it’s a wise decision.

Liquidity can be a problem though. Exchanges need someone willing to lay your bet for it to get matched. This can be an issue, particularly on horse racing, if it’s not on the day of the race itself. That’s why ThunderStrike always advise racing markets a few hours before the race so members can practically follow the advisory.

For those followers who cannot access exchanges due to geographical limitations the team instead recommend selecting a low margin bookmaker (that typically pays out 98-99%). Also ideally a company that supports profitable accounts. They are rare but do exist.

We are looking forward to growing the group into 2019 and wish you the best of luck as you join us on this journey.  

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Error in Bet Description

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Horse Racing Tip(s) for Monday

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Horse Racing Attainment: 33/1 & 80/1 Winners

Recent results have been varied across all sports however the large price selections across UK/IRE racing have performed exceptionally well. The ThunderStrike team will continue to identify value in these markets and advise with stakes that reflect the high variance nature of these runners.

Lexington Palm won on Monday @ 33/1

Loud And Clear won today @ 80/1 (SP)

- BSP of 137.30 (Exchange)

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Moderate downswing but over 37 units profit in the past 24 hours

ThunderStrike frequently utilise high variance markets. The winning market advised for Friday illustrates this perfectly at odds of 12.78 - of course this delivered substantial profit but most of this type will fail to return a profit. 

It boils down to implied probability vs actual outcome probability. Odds set by bookmakers suggest there is a certain percent chance of that outcome occurring. For example if they offer odds of 2.00 for ‘Team A’ to win then the percentage probability of that outcome is just below 50% (according to their traders once the bookmaker margin is factored in)

The ThunderStrike team deliver profit by identifying opportunities when the market is ‘inefficient’. In other words there is a significant difference between our teams calculated probability and those implied by the odds.

The message is simple. An edge will almost certainly deliver profit long term but equally as certain are losing streaks. 

Focus on months and years not daily returns - whether all bets win (like the past 24 hours) or if nothing delivers a return. Manage bankroll effectively and never allow emotion to interfere with your bets or staking. 

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Profit Update: Variance

Profitable weekend so far. We have welcomed two additional analysts to the ThunderStrike team.

As a reminder; bankroll management is an essential component of long term success when it comes to sports investment. Losing runs will occur but by following the advised 1-10 unit stake plan these can be managed. Monitor results over months and years - not days and weeks.