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About TipStar1

Horse Racing Tipster, Average around 80-100 Selections per month..

 

 

 

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End of Trial

Hi Guys

So tomorrow is the last day of the free trial and analysis, and going to up the ante, Its a bank holiday in the UK and there is way more racing than normal...

I have a good few selections and if i was to give analysis i'd be nearly writing a book, It's also my last day playing in August as have put in more volume than usual and need a couple of days off to refresh for the month ahead..

Without a shadow of a doubt its a good thing to not be playing every day and as i said before its good to set your stall out for expectant future rates, volume etc...

When i was inputting todays selections i forgot to hit the free tips button and i think i only gave house limit as a free Tip, He is also my strongest unit bet of the day and price is decent enough as the form is pretty good and im hopeful, but in saying that he may underform and others may win or not..

I'm going to copy and paste tomorrows selections here as i keep record of all my bets...

If they all run we are looking for 3/11 on the day, so hopefully couple of guys will be out to win...

Cart 14.20: Adarena 11.0 generally, 1pt win

Chep 14.35: Sir Billy Wright 4.5 ladb/PP, 1pt win

Epsm 14.40: Tikthebox 21.0 Bfair, 1pt win

Epsm 15.15: Olivia Fallow 7.0 Various, 1pt win

Cart 15.30: Pekanheim 6.0 betway, 1pt win

Dpat 15.35: Canny Tom 4.0 b365 1pt win

Chep 15.45: Edge 4.5 b365, 1pt win

Dpat 16.10: Rendezvous Peak 4.0 b365, 1pt win

Cart 16.40: Fantasy King 9.0 generally, 1pt win

Rosc 17.30: Cairdiuil 9.0 b365, 1pt win

Dpat 17.50: House Limit 8.0 bfair, 2pt win

Thanks for taking a look at the service and Thanks for your time

All the best

Les

 

 


 

28th August 2016 @ 19:30

Weekly Review

Hi Guys

So no joy today with selections, not to worry....

Was a great week and good to start firing in winners to keep the Strike Rate consistent...

Our Stats finished up at 5/17(29%) +17.50pts, ROI: 103%...

If every week was like that life would be great, but unfortunately it does not work that way...

I really like playing on Sundays but unfortunately i cannot find anything to pull the trigger on tomorrow...

Talk tomorrow

Have a nice weekend

Les

 

27th August 2016 @ 17:30

Saturday Scuffle

 Mai Fitz Jack just failed in the first clear of the rest and was certainly dissappointing he did not get his head in front, Veering to the left jumping 2 out certainly done us no favours, After the last the eventual winner hung his head to the left and that was the time for our Jockey to push the button, What can you do, We got 7/2 and he came back 7/4 so half the battle won...

We won the lucky last again with Vote of Confidence 12s>9s, not too much to say just happy days, hope you all enjoyed it....

Tomorrow's racing is a minefield and the big fields in general are not for me, Could find nothing in Ireland and turned my attention to UK and found two guys to give us a chance on a tricky day, Races are run within 5 minutes of each other so it will be either short and sweet or not so sweet...

Shark Hanlon sends 3 over to Cartmel tomorrow employing the services of Richard Johnson for two of them,, Our selection is Baby Jake in the 4.35, Forgiving his last spin on the flat his previous run was decent with again the line through Heartbreak City observed, He won this time last year at Worcester under the same jockey albeit off a lower mark, Ground and trip are fine, would have liked slightly better than 4/1 but price is above my average strike rate needed so hopeful he will be trying today...

Nelsons Bay is turned out quickly in the 4.40 after running a cracker 2 days ago clear of the rest, That was his best run for some time, He has winning form on this type of ground and is below last winning mark, Concern is he is 5lb out of the handicap and slightly up in grade, Stable employ the services of good lady amateur Joanna Mason and is worth a shot at the 8/1 odds offered...,

Have a good one

Les

26th August 2016 @ 19:45

Today/Tomorrow

Hi

Another good day again today with our stats reading 13421, 4/5 placed as well....

Was great to see Yorkshire Debut win the first, It makes the rest of the day more exciting,, How the market backed the favourite into 4/9 is beyond me but there u go, Horse was from the same stable as Monsieur joe who was due to run in Ireland for us later but was declared a Non Runner, Would have liked to see him run..

We got 3/1 on Storm Fly and the market backed him into 15/8, got placed but well beaten, Combo of Fahey/Mcnamara are flying high at the moment and their charge won really well today, I have a feeling Richard fahey will start banging in winners at above his Average Strike Rate in the next few weeks, He hasn't fired fully on a Saturday this season yet, but when he does he is dangerous and the odds can be generous as well...

Invermere not good enough today and ended up 4th....

No excuses for Intense Stylist, Didn't have it at the business end, 2nd 5/2...

Down to the lucky last we had Duke of Yorkshire who was hammered into 6/4, We got 3/1 so happy days, Was a great race to watch, Was a cool ride from Elaine Easterby and is a horse to keep an eye on as she only pushed the button at the death but when she did the horse went whoosh...

Onto Tomorrow's guys

Big fields at Down Royal tomorrow and just the 2 selections in a tough looking card..

I really like the look of Mai Fitz Jack in the 5.45, Comes from Joseph O'Brien's yard and they have a 7lb claimer on board in the shape of JJ Slevin, Was happy enough to get 7/2 as he has standout form to me, Trip may have been to far for him last time but his previous couple of runs were really good with him running subsequent Ebor Winner Heartbreak City to a head and was coming back at him, and then brushing off Licklighter by 10l who won next time out, Ground and Trip are sound and im hopeful of a decent run..

Vote of Confidence runs in the 7.15, Its a big field and is not the type of race i generally like to play in, Managed to get 12/1 on him and needed that price at least,, He was 2nd on the flat over 2 miles 13 days ago and forgiving his last 2 outings in NH his previous performances were decent enough at around this trip and i remember the horses who beat him being above average at the time, Just hoping he may be primed from the spin on the flat but tough race with the big field, Elliot/kennedy partnership is a plus at the least...

I got one new follower today so whoever you are, Thank you, I appreciate it...., Thanks to all 4 of you :)....

Have a good one

Les

25th August 2016 @ 20:13

Tomorrow's Analysis

Hi

So, Not the worst day today with Stats reading 21102, we were guaranteed a profit on the day after race 3 but could not find one more for a decent day, Dissappointed that i fell for the fahey angle in bellewstown, it tricked me and if they did not send him over Xebec was the guy for me, I had really fancied him in Galway and was on at 9/1, he was backed into 4s but came 2nd and it was not his day but he duly made amends for it earlier, Anyways take it on the chin and move on...

Tomorrow i am taking some chances as volume will slow down now for the rest of the month, with me taking more of a focus on Irish racing as am missing too many opportunities, It's easier for me to concentrate there as there are too many meetings in the UK atm, Increase in volume can work well but also go against you so you need to step back from it from time to time and planning ahead is always good, You can treat it as a new start when in midst of varying variance, good or bad times it works well and keeps you grounded and focused...

Onto tomorrow's guys

Yorkshire Debut runs in the 2.00 Muss, He is generally trading at 8/1 and happy to get that, I definately must be missing something analysis wise here as the favourite is odds on and i cannot see why he should be as i would not touch 4/5 on it, Our guy ran well on his last start and before that was 4l 3rd of 5 to Queen Kindly in a maiden, Queen kindly is a Frankel offspring and confirmed herself as a top 2 year old last weekend and is now rated 102 and our guy is 65 so that's the reasoning here..

Storm Cry runs in the 3.10 Leic, He is my strongest bet of the day Unit wise, Form looks really good, acts on the ground, Tried at york lto in a decent enough race and was 3/19, That was Class2, back in Class4 tomorrow, Turned out quickly, Ticks a lot of boxes and 3/1 is not too bad an early price.., hopeful...

Invermere runs for Richard Fahey in the 4.00 Muss, He is generally trading at 9/2 which is not the best price for him, Hills offering 11/2 and that's more like the price he should be,, Ground and trip should be fine but its no easy race, Tentative choice..

Intense Stylist has been one i have been keeping an eye on and has been knocking on the door all season, He brings the best form to the table and have to give him one more try, No excuses if he fails tomorrow is my call, Considering there is not many with standout form in the race i was happy enough to receive 7/2 as they could have gone shorter...

Duke of Yorkshire runs in the 6.15 Wolv, Another i was on the last time who was denied at the business end by a head, Pretty sure he was entered yesterday in a better class race put was pulled out, Form is there for all to see, It's an amateur riders handicap but same rider again as always and knows the horse, Fears she may not handle the surface and is at the height of his rating, Will see what happens..

Paul Midgley sends Monsieur Joe over to Ireland seeking a repeat win of this race with his charge, He brings the best form into the race and whilst 9/4 is not the best in a competitive race its not bad under the circumstances, must have a good chance, Few boyo's in there tho so will see...

Final selection of the nyte Honcho is one of those where if i dont select him he might win, I remember him doing me a good turn last season and this is his time off year, Whether he is good enough is debatable tomorrow but has won off higher marks and has the Brilliant lady rider Josephine Gordon taking 3lbs off, Again surface is a concern, Just hope we wont need him to get us out of jail this time tomorrow...

As always Gamble Responsibly, It's not a race, Its a War, and it's a long road..

Have a good one...

Les

 

 

24th August 2016 @ 21:28

Daily Review plus tomorrows thoughts

Hi

So disaster day today with nothing performing well, Massive gamble on New kid in town in the last, knew 9/4 was good early price on him but he simply was not good enough, Ruby/Mullins combo dont win them all, anyways not good enough and need to select better...

Onto tomorrows selections

Wahaab in the 3.10 Ling looked well wound up when winning two days ago, concerns were that he hung his head to the right but has not been raised in the ratings and now turns up with a 7lb claimer on board, 8/1 seems a good price, i thought it would be a bit shorter..

Hero's Story runs in the 3.30 Musselburgh is again another who is turned out quickly, his overall stats are terrible standing at 1/33, so just hoping its his turn today, was soundly beaten on monday but was 6l clear of the third, Has some form on the ground, main concern is he is consistent rather than a winner.., Odds wise got 7/2 earlier but considering his win/ratio in comparision to his price ud want a little bigger, he has less horses to beat i suppose is the only plus with only 6 turning out..

Vincennti runs in the 3.40 Ling, Ran a decent enough race a few days ago considering he missed the break and got slightly checked when making some attempt, Form has been decent all month and 74 mark may be ok atm, Oisin Murphy takes the ride, Stable also saddles Nocturn

Seamster runs in 4.55 catterick, Has been a class act all season and gets on particularly well with this rider who takes a valuable 7lbs off, ground is no problem as he bolted up in it in june and followed up going down by a neck in similiar conditions, must have a chance, got 9/4 earlier, was hoping for a bit better but will see what happens...

I Will Excel lines up in the 5.30 at bellestown, another who has not found the winning habit thus far but have been keeping an eye on him, Market is tight at the top, got 3/1 earlier on him, has form on the ground, turned out quickly for the minimum distance after decent run at the curragh on sunday, hopefully he is ready to do the bizz

Mica Mika in the 7.00 is very interesting to me because Richard Fahey is sending one over to Bellewstown, I dont remember him sending a horse to that track before, He employs the services of robbie downey who claims 3lb, I rate this guy and given the right chances he could have a good season, Horse has been competitive off higher marks on similiar ground, Tough race tho, i selected both xebec and artful artist last time out, will know the craic after 7 tomorrow, got 6/1 earlier so decent enough odds and was happy to get it...

Final selection off the nyte runs Saborido at kempton in the 7.40, Was just headed last week at the track and has won over CD three times, Jim crowley takes the ride so no better man in the saddle in his quest for top jockey, Horse seems to like this time off year going through past data so just hope he likes it enough to win tomorrow, got 6/1 earlier and always happy to get those type of odds when playing, That is when they win of course..

Best off luck tomorrow in a tough game

Les

 

23rd August 2016 @ 23:14

Free Selections

Hi

For the next 7days im going to give out every selection for free, I hope they go well....

Racing for the next couple of days is low grade stuff but hopefully find a couple of good opportunities..

Has not been the best month tipping wise but made a few quid and hopefully finish out the month strong and put me in a good position confidence wise for September...

Les

22nd August 2016 @ 21:57

Toughing it out

Hi

Last couple of days have been decent and am fighting back...

As a tipster it can be tough going especially when you are battling against your own Stat expectancy but this is what makes it all worthwhile..

In a tough game with a lot of perceived variables on offer you have to be reliant on your Strike Rate, So in a mental game format this is what you should focus on whenever things go against you...

A great quote from a friend of mine once said, "Its not the horse that's losing, It's just the odds acting the bollox", If you can apply that mentality the bad times are not so bad..

So i said i would be leaving here in my last post, but said to myself no because i was going well and obviously the platform will fix the strike rate issues, Strike Rate is important from a past, present and future analysis point and should not be underestimated from an analytical point of view...

"Goodnight America wherever you are"

Les

 

20th August 2016 @ 21:08

Leaving Tipstrr

Hi

Just to let any followers know that today is my last day posting Tips on here..

Reason being that the system is calculating tips that are non runners as bets and as a tipster i cant continue on like that in what i would call a "live situation"...

If the situation is addressed and fixed i will come back but if its not i wont...

All the best

Les

18th August 2016 @ 10:45

Daily Review

Hi

So today kicked off with two non runners leaving me down to 3 selections for the day..

Got on Gold Flash in 4.15 Wolv at 11/2 yesterday and contracted into 4/1 SP, he ran a great race and looked like he was definately going best entering the home straight but could not get his head in front, The eventual winner veered twice to the right on the runin, the 2nd time we were bumped and that was that, These things happen and thats racing, We got better than SP anyway so was half the battle won...

Selection in the 7.10 Ballinrobe was Walkabout, got on early at 11/4 and that didnt last too long, he was backed into as short as 5/4 and returned 6/4 and duly met market expectations under rising star Jack Kennedy...

Round Tower was our final selection off the nyte and won really well, he jumped the third last like a chaser in the making, Brilliant apprentice Donagh Meyler was on board and he is worth keeping an eye on in the future.., We got 13/8 and he came back 11/8 so clean sweep on getting the best odds

Great start to the month with our Stats standing at 10/28(36%) +15.50(R4s Included), ROI: 55%, 36% strike rate is running above expectation and it would be doubtful i can maintain that for August but as always ill be trying my best

Place Stats for the month stand at 20/28(71%) so selections are trying anyway which is always a good sign, as i said before small margins normally determine the P/L stats at end of month...

As a rule for myself to cope with the times when my selections go down by nks, hds, noses etc i call them coin flips like in poker so when beaten my small margins my analogy is i had AK v 88 on the runin and i didnt improve and i hope that the next time i find myself myself in the same situation my selection is 6/1 or 7/1 and gets there on the line so its like an ace on the river and we got there this time so all is forgotten...

Just the two guys tomorrow, got on at 9/2 and 5/1, hopefully they will both give their running so will see what happens...

All the best

Les

9th August 2016 @ 00:08

Weekly Review

Hi All

So will do a weekly review before my last selection runs today

Been going ok but not 100% happy with my selection process and a bit disillusioned with the first race i had a selection in today, I never complain about any of my selections but i have to on this one as none of it makes sense to me the way the race panned out...

I had selected Dance Alone in 2.00 leicester, he had ran a very good race a couple of days ago with not quite getting his head in front and looked good today to me and was backed in from 7/2>11/4, My disgust in this was as follows...

(A) Clearly Dance Alone is trying to win today as makes it from the front and pulls a few lenghts clear of the field towards the latter end, You are counting your money for a couple of reasons which i will outline..

(i) Both are running off the same Rating but one key thing, Dance Alone has a 7lb pull in the weights due to Lewis edmunds claiming 7lb

(ii) Dance Alone has race fitness on his side due to running a couple of days ago whilst the winner case key has not run for 7 weeks...

(iii) The last couple of times the winner Case key has ran on a fast surface he has been beaten by 10 and 14l over pretty much the same distance so unless the horse is not trying those times he does not like the surface at a glance...

(iv) These considerations will never be taken into account by stewards at the end of the race so there will be no enquiry and result will stand..

(V) Because of the perceived advantage Dance alone has, the jockey on board has to receive a small ban, just a few days so he knows that the next time he has a clear chance to win the race that he will actually 100% ride the horse out to win, a few bans like this to jockeys will wake them up and will also stop their earning power and they will be aware that scrutiny is on them at all times and not just the big races...

(Vi) All of this will never happen but it should happen a little at least...

So that is my first live complaint... :)

For any1 that is following me you may have noticed that my staking has reduced a bit, The reason for this is i play at 1pt and occasional 2 pt wins,, I didnt just start here as a tipster and have been around for a while...

Just to go into the unit staking on tipstrr, It goes from 1 unit up to 10 units for the win proportion of selections..., I would be happy if Tipstrr introduced higher units for the win proportion say up to 20 units as there is an each way option for 10 units each way...

For straight win bettors which applies to me as a horse racing tipster and to most sports bettors, football, tennis etc it gives us a chance to compete profit wise with Tipsters that incorporate multiples into their selections...

This is the way i treat units that i advise here...

1 unit = €2, 2 Units = €4, 6 units = €12 and 10 units = €20 and so on... but if higher units were introduced 12 units would equal €12 and 20 units would equal €20 if that makes sense...

Anyways back to the horses, im running at 8/24(33%) for August so far so the strike rate is above expectancy, I have proofed data to a reputable crowd over 14 weeks which stands at 77/256(30%) +158.50, ROI: 62%, Im over the moon with these proofed stats as i did not expect to hit these numbers over the sample size but i have been playing day in day out for the past 12 months playing and feel i have a good handle on the game, but in saying that i never get too excited as horse racing is tough and small edges makes or breaks your profitability...

I like to say to myself that these results are just snap shots in time and enjoy them while they last as you just dont know whats around the corner, but if you dont panic and stick to your selection process as much as you can then things willl be fine down the line....

You may ask why i dont give write ups on the horses i select, If i wanted to i could but i would feel i would be giving the game slightly away as im pretty sure my style of play is different to most, I prefer to let the results do the talking and the odds we obtain move inwards so we pretty much always get on at the best prices...

Going forward, I am definately going to write more on the blog and give analysis on the guys i select afterwards as its good for us all, so sickened with myself yesterday as in my last blog post i highlighted Outrage as a guy to follow next time out and ofc he won yesterday and i did not have him selected so going to have to input all my previous selections into a tracker as they pop up all the time and just feel im missing out on extra profit and need to get my act together in that sense..

There are always ways to win inside a set of selections and its amazing what you can find within saved data...

Good luck to all next week, Hopefully find a few winners, Exercise for the month is to beat 30 winners, which was my best in june so 23 to go, hopefully enough opportunities will be there this month for it

If i did not give my last selection for free yesterday its Aspen Mountain in 5.05 curragh, he is not my usual profile type but if he is upto the job today he must have a decent chance, at least on the formbook anyway..

Thanks for your time

Les

7th August 2016 @ 15:27

Back On Tipstrr

Hi all

So yesterday i arrived back on Tipstrr with TipStar1 service, I had been restricted on giving my selections by another platform but that is done now and am ready to stamp my authority here..

Was a good start to proceedings with We'll Shake hands getting back up after being headed final furlong to win by a nose, got 13/8 on that so was happy enough

Yeeow was trading at 13.0 most firms the day before and a gamble developed on him as was backed into 5.5 but did not strike a blow..

Outrage won very well in the 5.10 Yarm, Was pleased wth how he quickened inside final furlong and would be one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks..

Took a chance with stipulate in big field handicap, unfortunately the rain came and ground went against him, still ran a good race to come 4th at 16/1 so decent performance..

Presented was my final selection of the day and held on in a thriller for a nice day, he was as big as 7.5 the day before and came back at 5.5...

Thanks for your time

Les

27th July 2016 @ 12:35

TipStar1/IrishAce

Hey All,

First blog post here,

Just want to share my thoughts and feelings about the game, I have been on what i would call "The Tipster grind" for a few months now and feel im a good player, I have been pretty much playing day in day out myself for close to a year and its a tough game, but feel i have some sort of an edge for a few different reasons, I have my own style of play and so far so good so hopefully will continue the trend here on Tipstrr...

For the last couple of months I have been proofing on Tipster Planet as BetStar1 and IrishAce and things have gone well so far, Im on all the leaderboards there whilst playing at reduced stakes to a lot of others so well happy with that and long may it last, I'm due to finish there as BetStar1 in mid july so will see what happens after that....

I found this platform a few days ago and was very impressed with it, It's a great idea and am excited to play here...

I play here as both TipStar1 and IrishAce and they are both the same selections as on the other platform...

First 2 days Review:

Tipstar1 ended up 4/7 after a clean sweep 3/3 on Friday, My Overall strike rate with these selections is 33% over a sample size of 300 circa so above average expectation start...

Irish Ace started badly but is on the back of an upswing so not to worry, standing at 1/6 that should improve with an average expectancy rate of around 22% circa 500(hopefully), In hindsight with the differential staking here to what im used to in a tipster sense, I could have easily played each way but opted for the win with the selections, Places @ 16/1 and 12/1, Not to worry, Both of my Services are profitable in the place Market as well but would advise playing in the betfair Place markets over an each way option as its more profitable due to the type of races i play in...

Thanks for your time

TipStar1/IrishAce

18th June 2016 @ 23:25

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