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TipStar1

Horse Racing

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Weekly Review

Hi All

So will do a weekly review before my last selection runs today

Been going ok but not 100% happy with my selection process and a bit disillusioned with the first race i had a selection in today, I never complain about any of my selections but i have to on this one as none of it makes sense to me the way the race panned out...

I had selected Dance Alone in 2.00 leicester, he had ran a very good race a couple of days ago with not quite getting his head in front and looked good today to me and was backed in from 7/2>11/4, My disgust in this was as follows...

(A) Clearly Dance Alone is trying to win today as makes it from the front and pulls a few lenghts clear of the field towards the latter end, You are counting your money for a couple of reasons which i will outline..

(i) Both are running off the same Rating but one key thing, Dance Alone has a 7lb pull in the weights due to Lewis edmunds claiming 7lb

(ii) Dance Alone has race fitness on his side due to running a couple of days ago whilst the winner case key has not run for 7 weeks...

(iii) The last couple of times the winner Case key has ran on a fast surface he has been beaten by 10 and 14l over pretty much the same distance so unless the horse is not trying those times he does not like the surface at a glance...

(iv) These considerations will never be taken into account by stewards at the end of the race so there will be no enquiry and result will stand..

(V) Because of the perceived advantage Dance alone has, the jockey on board has to receive a small ban, just a few days so he knows that the next time he has a clear chance to win the race that he will actually 100% ride the horse out to win, a few bans like this to jockeys will wake them up and will also stop their earning power and they will be aware that scrutiny is on them at all times and not just the big races...

(Vi) All of this will never happen but it should happen a little at least...

So that is my first live complaint... :)

For any1 that is following me you may have noticed that my staking has reduced a bit, The reason for this is i play at 1pt and occasional 2 pt wins,, I didnt just start here as a tipster and have been around for a while...

Just to go into the unit staking on tipstrr, It goes from 1 unit up to 10 units for the win proportion of selections..., I would be happy if Tipstrr introduced higher units for the win proportion say up to 20 units as there is an each way option for 10 units each way...

For straight win bettors which applies to me as a horse racing tipster and to most sports bettors, football, tennis etc it gives us a chance to compete profit wise with Tipsters that incorporate multiples into their selections...

This is the way i treat units that i advise here...

1 unit = €2, 2 Units = €4, 6 units = €12 and 10 units = €20 and so on... but if higher units were introduced 12 units would equal €12 and 20 units would equal €20 if that makes sense...

Anyways back to the horses, im running at 8/24(33%) for August so far so the strike rate is above expectancy, I have proofed data to a reputable crowd over 14 weeks which stands at 77/256(30%) +158.50, ROI: 62%, Im over the moon with these proofed stats as i did not expect to hit these numbers over the sample size but i have been playing day in day out for the past 12 months playing and feel i have a good handle on the game, but in saying that i never get too excited as horse racing is tough and small edges makes or breaks your profitability...

I like to say to myself that these results are just snap shots in time and enjoy them while they last as you just dont know whats around the corner, but if you dont panic and stick to your selection process as much as you can then things willl be fine down the line....

You may ask why i dont give write ups on the horses i select, If i wanted to i could but i would feel i would be giving the game slightly away as im pretty sure my style of play is different to most, I prefer to let the results do the talking and the odds we obtain move inwards so we pretty much always get on at the best prices...

Going forward, I am definately going to write more on the blog and give analysis on the guys i select afterwards as its good for us all, so sickened with myself yesterday as in my last blog post i highlighted Outrage as a guy to follow next time out and ofc he won yesterday and i did not have him selected so going to have to input all my previous selections into a tracker as they pop up all the time and just feel im missing out on extra profit and need to get my act together in that sense..

There are always ways to win inside a set of selections and its amazing what you can find within saved data...

Good luck to all next week, Hopefully find a few winners, Exercise for the month is to beat 30 winners, which was my best in june so 23 to go, hopefully enough opportunities will be there this month for it

If i did not give my last selection for free yesterday its Aspen Mountain in 5.05 curragh, he is not my usual profile type but if he is upto the job today he must have a decent chance, at least on the formbook anyway..

Thanks for your time

Les

Published 7th August @ 15:27