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Making Sense of it all(August UK, "3 Stat")

Will just continue on with "3 Stat" for the month for this blog post...

01/08/17

Bevr 14.35: Brideys Lettuce(8x3) 1st 3.71 +2.57

Bevr 16.55: Relight My Fire(8x3) 2nd 8.97

Bevr 17.30: John Caesar(8x3) 2nd 3.85

Pert 20.00: Novo Dawn(8x3) x

Daily: 1/4(25%) -0.43(Note place ctd 52/100)

02/08/17

Leic 20.10: Jacksonfire(7x3) 2nd 8.40

Pert 16.35: Ronaldinho(9x3) x

Sand 17.45: born to please(8x3) 1st 13.04 +11.44

Sand 18.20: The Golden Cue(8x3) 1st 7.00 +5.70

Daily: 2/4(50%) +15.14

Overall: 3/8(35%) +14.71

Place overall: 55/104(53%)

03/08/17

Flas 20.45: Prominna(9x3) x

Gwood 16.10: Billesdon Brook(7x3) 1st 4.01 +2.85

Nott 15.55: Hidden Oasis(9x3) x

Nott 16.30: Katebird(10x3) x

Nott 17.05: Show Palace(9x3) 1st 5.20 +3.99

Nott 17.40: Nothing Compares(10x3) x

Daily: 2/6(33%) +2.84

Overall: 5/14(35%) +17.55

Place Overall: 57/110(52%)

04/08/17

Bath 18.35: Stoneyford Lane(9x3) 1st 8.24 +6.88

Bath 19.40: With pleasure(9x3) 1st 13.29 +11.68

Gwood 15.00: Withersnea(6x3) 4th 19.81

Muss 19.20: Fumbo Jumbo(9x3) 3rd 4.99

Muss 20.20: Coral Princess(10x3) x

Daily 2/5(40%) +15.66

Overall: 7/20(35%) +33.21

Place overall: 61/115(53%)

05/08/17

Donc 17.05: spirit of rosanna(8x3) x

Nmkt 16.25: Horsted Keynes(8x3) x

Thir 15.25: Miningrocks(6x3) x

Daily: 0/3(0%) -3.00

Overall: 7/23(30%) +30.21

Place overall: 61/118(52%)

06/08/17

Ches 15.40: Calder Prince(9x3) x

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 7/24(28%) +29.21

Place Overall: 61/119(51%)

07/08/17

Carl 18.00: B fifty two(10x3) x

Carl 18.00: Ticks the boxes(3x3) 3rd 9.67

Carl 19.30: El Principe(6x3) 1st 7.37 +6.05

Ripn 16.15: Royal Reserve(9x3) x

Sals 17.35: Petrify(6x3) x

Daily: 1/5(20%) +2.05

Overall: 8/29(28%) +31.26

Place Overall: 63/124(51%)

08/08/17

Chel 19.20: Heartstone(4x3) x

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 8/30(27%) +30.36

Place Overall: 63/125(50%)

09/08/17

Pont 16.40: Echo of lightning(5x3) 1st 5.08 +3.88

Daily: 1/1(100%) +3.88

Overall: 9/31(29%) +34.24

Place overall: 64/126(51%)

10/08/17

Hayd 16.20:Lyric Harmony(10x3) 2nd 5.50

Wolv 20.40: Toga Tiger(10x3) 3rd 32.00

Daily: 0/2(0%) -2.00

Overall: 9/33(27%) +32.24

Place Overall: 66/128(52%)

11/08/17

Nmkt 19.05: Outback Blue(5x3) x

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 9/34(27%) +31.24

Place overall: 66/129(51%)

12/08/17

Ayrs 17.50: Let right be done(1x3) x

Ayrs 20.20: Inglorious(8x3) 1st 11.42 +9.90

Ayrs 20.50: Schmooze(1x3) x

Hayd 16.05: Sterling Silva(10x3) x

Nmkt 16.15: That is the spirit(8x3) x

Nmkt 16.15: War Glory(10x3) 2nd 3.42

Redc 17.00: Midnight warrior(8x3) x

Daily: 1/7(14%) +3.90

Overall: 10/41(25%) +35.14

Place Overall: 68/136(50%)

13/08/17

Leic 15.45: Scofflaw(8x3) x

Leic 17.20: Angel Palanas(8x3) 2nd 7.80

Wind 16.35: Major valentine(10x3) 2nd 3.03

Daily: 0/3(0%) -3.00

Overall: 10/44(23%) +32.14

Place Overall: 70/139(50%)

14/08/17

Ayrs 14.15: Size matters(9x3) 1st 5.20 +3.99

Ayrs 14.15: Free to roam(3x3) x

Ayrs 17.15: Haymarket(2x3) x

Ayrs 17.15: Sepal(9x3) 1st 5.03 +3.83

Ripn 16.00: fire Leopard(10x3) 1st 3.79 +2.65

Ripn 16.30: Green howard(9x3) 2nd 6.03

Wind 17.40: Wild flower(6x3) 1st 2.78 +1.69

Wind 18.40: Fanfair(5x3) 2nd 6.40

Wind 19.10: Chiefofchiefs(9x3) x

Wolv 19.20: Gabrials kaka(8x3) x

Daily: 4/10(40%) +6.16

Overall: 14/54(24%) +38.30

Place Overall: 76/149(51%)

15/08/17

Chel 18.10: Sixties secret(7x3) 3rd 6.33

Nott 19.55: Fantasy Justifier(10x3) 2nd 7.17

Thir 17.00: Bollin Ted(6x3) x

Thir 17.30: Ticks the boxes(8x3) 2nd 6.40

Daily: 0/4(0%) -4.00

overall: 14/58(24%) +34.30

Place Overall: 79/153(52%)

16/08/17

Bevr 16.40: Mysterial(9x3) x

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 14/59(23%) +33.30

Place Overall: 79/154(51%)

17/10/17

Bevr 15.10: Northern Law(9x3) x

Bevr 16.40: Bulas Belle(9x3) x

Chep 20.15: Secret Potion(8x3) 3rd 7.80

Sals 15.50: Jelly Monger(10x3) x

Yarm 19.00: Chetan(8x3) x

Daily: 0/5(0%) -5.00

Overall: 14/64(22%) +28.30

Place Overall: 80/159(50%)

18/08/17

Catt 19.40: Lady Joanna Vasa(4x3) 3rd 4.10

Newb 17.25: Daily Trader(8x3) 2nd 4.31

Nmkt 19.25: Stepney(4x3) x

Nott 14.30: Hamish Mcgonagain(6x3) 1st 2.82

Nott 14.30: Ambitious Icarus(3x3) x

Nott 15.00: Lexington sky(6x3) x

daily: 1/6(17%) -3.27

Overall: 15/70(21%) +25.03

Place Overall: 82/165(50%)

19/08/17

Ripn 16.25: Lucys Law(7x3) x

Ripn 17.00: two for two(7x3) x

Daily: 0/2(0%) -2.00

Overall: 15/72(21%) +23.03

Place Overall: 82/167

20/08/17

Pont 14.50: Bear Valley(8x3) x

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 15/73(21%) +22.03

Place Overall: 82/168(49%)

21/08/17

Ling 14.30: Pete so high(3x3) 1st 2.16 +1.10

Ling 15.00: Montycristo(10x3) x

Thir 15.45: Interlink(3x3) x

Thir 17.45: Rose Eclair(6x3) x

Wind 17.50: Outback blue(10x3) x

Wind 19.20:Lydias Place(5x3) 2nd 5.85

Daily: 1/6(17%) -3.90

Overall: 16/79(20%) +18.13

Place Overall: 84/174(48%)

22/08/17

Yarm 19.40: Justice Rock(5x3) 3rd 8.24

Daily: 0/1(0%) -1.00

Overall: 16/80(20%) +17.13

Place Overall: 85/175(49%)

23/08/17

Bath 16.35: Secret Potion(6x3) 2nd 6.01

Bath 17.10: Powered(7x3) 3rd 15.00

Carl 14.40: Yes You(9x3) 1st 3.77 +2.63

Carl 15.50: Brother Mcgonagall(9x3) x

Daily: 1/4(25%) -0.37

Overall: 17/84(20%) +16.76

Place Overall: 88/179(49%)

24/08/17

Font 18.50: Atlantic king(8x3) 1st 16.67 +14.89

Haml 17.10: Rioja Day(10x3) 3rd 6.40

Strt 16.55: The Kvilleken(7x3) x

Daily: 1/3(33%) +12.89

Overall: 18/87(21%) +29.65

Place Overall: 90/182(49%)

zzzzz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

16th October 2017 @ 21:26

Making Sense of it All(July UK)

01/07/2017

Ches 14.20: Queen in waiting(7x1) U/P

Ches 14.55: Atteq(7x3) U/P

Ches 16.35: Rosealee(7x2) U/P

Donc 19.55: Dark Defender(7x3) U/P

Donc 20.25: Maulesden May(8x1) U/P

Ling 20.40: Vale of flight(9x2) U/P

Ling 20.40: Fabulous flyer(9x2) U/P

York 15.05: Bear Valley(9x3) U/P

York 15.35: Truth or dare(7x3) U/P

York 17.25: Jacbequick(7x3) 1st 10.57 = +9.09

Daily: 1/10(10%) +0.09

02/07/2017

Cart 14.50: Presenting Junior(7x2) 1st 4.94 +3.74

Cart 17.35: Back to baloo(7x1) U/P

Cart 17.35: Rockabilly riot(7x3) 2nd 6.28

Uttx 14.00: Sweeping Rock(7x1) 2nd 3.89

Uttx 17.10: Theo(4x1) 1st 1.64 +0.61

Wind 14.10: High Acclaim(8x3) up

Wind 15.10: Medburn dream(8x1) up

Wind 15.10: Georgian Bay(4x3) up

Wind 16.45: Coolfitch(8x1) up

Daily: 2/9(22%) -2.65

Overall: 3/19(16%) -2.56(Note 2x in race 0/6)

03/07/2017

Haml 20.45: Company Asset(4x1) 1st 3.47 +2.35

Haml 20.45: Set in stone(4x1) up

Pont 15.00: Love Oasis(6x1) up

Pont 16.30: Yorkee mo sabee(6x3) up

Wind 21.00: Jumping Jack(6x1) 2nd 4.75

Wolv 15.45: Winston C(10x3) 1st 3.63 +2.50

Daily 2/6(33%) +0.85

Overall: 5/25(20%) -1.71(Note 2x 1/8 -4.65)

04/07/2017

Chep 19.10: Champagne bob(3x3) 1st 5.98 +4.73

Haml 15.30: Nicholas T(10x1) up

Haml 15.30: Hibou(10x3) 1st 20.21 +18.25

Haml 16.30: Zapper cass(5x1) x

Haml 16.30: Lexington times(5x2) x

Haml 17.30: Wee Jock(5x1) 1st 2.00 +0.95

Strt 19.50: Polarbrook(8x1) 1st 5.25 +4.04

Daily: 4/7(57%) +24.97

Overall: 9/32(28%) +23.26(Note 2x 2/12 +10.60)

05/07/17

Bath 19.30: Pattie(10x1) up

Bath 21.00: Av a word(8x1) up

Kemp 20.10: Clowance One(7x3) 1st 2.30 +1.25

Perth 16.10: Border Breaker(10x2) up

Thir 15.30: Englishman(3x2) up

Thir 17.30: Prazeres(10x3) up

Worc 14.20:Murray Mount(10x1) up

Worc 14.50: Prettylittlething(8x1) up

Worc 15.50: Slim Pickens(10x2) 2nd 5.73

Worc 15.50: Mr McGuinness(10x1) up

Daily 1/10(10%) -7.75

Overall: 10/42(24%) +15.51(Note 2x 2/14 +8.60)

06/07/2017

Epsm 19.15: Storm Cry(6x2) 2nd 4.10

Hayd 14.00: Make on madam(9x2) up

Hayd 17.00: Foxy Boy(9x1) 1st 2.12 +1.06

Newb 19.30: On to victory(8x1) x

Newb 19.30: See of Rome(8x1) x

Newb 20.05: Belledessert(8x3) 3rd 5.5

Newb 20.35: Fastnet Spin(10x3) 2nd 17.50(Timeform comments "Others MUCH preferred")

Perth 15.10: Tangolan(1x4) 1st 4.30 +3.14

Yarm 14.50: Sir Gnet(7x2) 2nd 3.05

Yarm 16.50: Shining Romeo(9x1) 1st 1.95 +0.90

Yarm 16.50: Saga Sprint(7x3) x

Daily: 3/11(27%) -2.90

Overall: 13/53(25%) +12.61(Note 2x 3/18 +6.50)

07/07/2017

Bevr 19.10: Florencio(8x2) x

Chel 18.30: Cainhoe star(7x1) 1st 2.10 +1.04

Chel 21.00: Interlink(7x2) x

Donc 16.10: Canny Style(8x2) x

Donc 17.40: Justice Lady(8x3) 1st 3.25 +2.14

Hayd 17.50: Arithmetic(10x2) x

Hayd 20.20: Je suis charlie(7x2) x

Nabb 14.40: Braquer dor(3x1) 1st 1.31 +0.29

Nabb 15.15: Our folly(10x1) x

Nabb 16.50: Cillians well(9x2) 1st 2.55 +1.47

Sand 13.50: Fethiye boy(9x1) 1st 13.50 +11.87

Sand 16.30: Sternrubin(9x2) x

Daily 5/12(42%) +9.81

Overall: 18/65(28%) +22.42, ROI: 34%

7 Day Summary

This is a taxing exercise, i wish i had a computer that would capture all the data so i could make sense quickly without having to go through the long grind..

I can make no sense out of the numbers in brackets yet, The only visual which is clear to see is backing 2 per race adds to variance and you can argue that it is lucky to be in profit with hitting a big priced winner...

Taking them out of the equation the stats came back at 15/47(32%) +15.92, ROI: 34%, so slightly less ROI within 1%, but a much higher strike rate which it should be or i would be worried...

All in all i have to be happy with the numbers for the week, and am excited to go on,, so far, looking at an average of 9 bets per day with all or 7 bets per day singly...

My estimation of the bracket numbers would be the lower first number should be the best performer in a 1-5 situation but in this particular set of results it was the higher numbers that performed much better at a glance profit wise, a quick check on the stats of 1-5 came back at as follows

6/11(54%) +7.07, ROI: 64%

So far my thinking is correct, 1-5 should be more solid than 6-10, so all going well these can be used to hopefully have a bigger bet when they arise all going well,but its a long road yet...

Week 2

08/07/2017

Bevr 15.25: Stanghow(7x3) 1st 12.33 +10.76

Bevr 17.10: Greenview Paradise(7x2) 2nd 7.79

Carl 19.00: Bronze beau(5x1) x

Hayd 14.05: Mistress Quickly(9x1) x

Hayd 16.25: Hart Stopper(9x2) 1st 6.00 +4.75

Leic 13.25: Nags wag(5x3) x

Nott 18.40: Socialites Red(9x3) x

Nott 19.40: Endless gold(9x2) 2nd 3.90

Daily: 2/8(25%) +9.51

Overall: 20/73(27%) +31.93

09/07/17

Ayrs 17.30: Perfect Words(10x2) 1st 4.20 +3.04

Daily: 1/1(100%) +3.04

Overall: 21/74(28%) +34.97

10/07/17

Ayrs 15.15: alphabetical Order(10x3) x

Ayrs 15.15: Braes of Lochalch(10x2) x

Ayrs 16.55; Let right be done(1x4) 1st 8.60 +7.22

Ayrs 16.55: Naupatka(1x4) x

Ayrs 17.30: Cyflymder(9x1) x

Ayrs 17.30: Yes You(10x2) 3rd 3.89

Ripn 20.15: Mulligatawny(1x5) 2nd 3.68

Wind 19.35: Jumping Jack(7x2) x

Wind 19.35: Fastnet Spin(4x2) x

Wind 21.05: Harebell(3x3) 1st 6.76 +5.47

Daily: 2/10(20%) +4.69

Overall: 23/84(27%) +39.66(Note 2x 4/24 +8.72)

11/07/17

Pont 15.40: Avon Breeze(8x1) x

Pont 16.40: Edgar allan poe(7x1) 1st 3.02 +1.92

Uttx 19.35: Red Riverman(9x2) 1st 2.86 +1.77

Uttx 20.35: Gran Maestro(9x2) 3rd 11.00

Uttx 21.05: Defining Year(9x1) 1st 2.48 +1.41

Wolv 13.55: Tooty Fruitti(8x1) 2nd 5.80(nk)

Wolv 15.55: Bruny Island(8x3) 2nd 2.19(nk)

Daily: 3/7(43%) +1.10

Overall: 26/91(29%) +40.76

12/07/17

Bath 18.40: Fethiye Boy(5x1) x

Bath 19.40: Eden Dubai(7x2) x

Catt 16.30: Addicted to you(8x2) 1st 2.11 +1.05

Catt 18.05: Kody Ridge(2x1) 3rd 2.25

Catt 18.05: Vintage dream(9x2) 2nd 12.47

Kemp 19.55: fitzwilly(8x3) 2nd 5.09

Kemp 20.55: Hackney Road(7x1) 2nd 4.77

Kemp 20.55: Madame bounty(6x1) x

Yarm 14.35: Millies Kiss(6x3) 3rd 5.72

Yarm 16.55: turning Gold(6x1) 1st 1.68 +0.65

Daily: 2/10(20%) -6.30

Overall: 28/101(28%) +34.46(Note 2x 4/28 +4.72)

13/07/17

Carl 15.10: Bossipop(8x2) x

Carl 15.45; Storm Cry(7x2) x

Carl 15.45: Hamidans girl(10x3) x

Carl 16.50: Transpennine star(3x4) x

Donc 13.40: Wordiness(9x2) 1st 7.40 +6.08

Donc 16.55: Acadian Angel(10x2) 1st 2.90 +1.80

Epsm 18.05: Fair power(9x1) 1st 3.61 +2.48

Epsm 18.05: Celestation(10x2) x

Epsm 19.15: Hamster Jam(6x2) x

Epsm 20.20: Berrahri(7x2) 1st 2.59 +1.51

Epsm 20.20: Lopito de vega(4x4) x

Epsm 20.50: Asphan sam(7x1) 3rd 4.74

Epsm 20.50: Tavener(7x2) x

Newb 19.05:Mr minerals(8x1) 2nd 2.17

Nmkt 16.35: Shamshon(6x3) 1st 8.40 +7.03

Daily: 5/15(33%) +8.90

Overall: 33/116(28%) +43.36(Note 2x 6/36 +2.71)

14/07/17

Carl 19.05: The nazca lines(7x2) 1st 7.60 +6.27

Carl 20.45: Brother mcgonagall(7x3) 1st 2.52 +1.44

Carl 21.20: Chauvelin(7x3) 2nd 14.00

Chep 17.45: Wotabreeze(8x2) 3rd 5.39

Chep 19.50: Dodgy Bob(5x4) x

Muss 17.55: Bunce(4x4) x

Muss 20.00: Inglorious(5x2)

Muss 20.35: Dominating(6x2) 1st 1.23 +0.22

Muss 21.10: Picture painter(10x3) 3rd 9.97

Muss 21.10: Miskin(10x2) x

Nmkt 13.50: Lefertovo(7x3) x

Nmkt 16.10: Uther Pendragon(9x3) 2nd 78.12

York 14.40: Beardwood(7x2) x

York 16.20: Funkadelic(9x3) x

York 16.20: Our little pony(7x2) 3rd 15.x

Daily: 3/15(20%) -4.07

Overall: 36/131(27%) +39.29,, ROI: 30%,,(Note 2x 6/40 -1.29)

So another pretty decent week, and the picture is becoming clear as to where the profits are leaking, if we take out the 2 per race guys our stats are as follows..

30/91(33%) +40.58, ROI: 45%

The lower number stats had a bad week sr wise going 2/14(14%) +0.69,,leaving their overalls at 8/25(32%) +7.76, ROI: 31%...

15/07/17

Asct 14.10: Pipers Note(7x3) 3rd 20.16

Asct 14.40: Mutarakez(8x3) x

Asct 17.00: Cape coast(5x1) 2nd 3.41

Asct 17.00: Melting Dew(9x2) x

ches 14.25: avon Breeze(4x4) 2nd 9.39

ches 15.35: Look My Way(7x3) 2nd 6.32

Ches 16.10: Compromise(10x1) x

Haml 19.05: Kenny the captain(5x2) x

Haml 20.05: Archipeligo(7x2) x

Haml 20.35: Arcane Dancer(7x3) 3rd 8.87

Nmkt 15.25: Robero(4x1) x

Sals 20.20: High Wells(10x2) x

York 13.55: Twin Appeal(7x2) x

York 17.15: Jim Rockford(7x2) x

Daily: 0/14(0%) -14.00

Overall: 36/145(25%) +25.29(Note 2x 6/42 -3.29)

16/07/17

Pert 15.05: Urtheoneiwant(10x3) 1st 5.50 +4.28

Pert 16.10: Tangolan(10x1) 1st 5.42 +4.20

Pert 16.10: Muwalla(10x2) 2nd 21.08

Pert 16.40: Broughtons star(10x2) x

Sout 16.00: Western Miller(7x1) x

Strt 15.50: Bestwork(5x1) 1st 3.92 +2.77

Strt 17.30: Sky Of Stars(5x2) 1st 3.05 +1.95

Strt 18.00: anton Dolin(5x3) x

Daily: 4/8(50%) +9.20

0verall: 40/153(26%) +34.49(Note 2x 7/44 -0.09)

17/07/17

Ayr 15.00: Special V(7x3) x

Ayr 15.00: Sea Of Green(4x3) 1st 6.40 +5.13

Ayr 15.30: Hernandoshideaway(6x3) x

Ayr 15.30: Lucent Dream(8x2) 1st 3.10 +2.00

Ayr 16.00: Royal Shaheen(8x3) 1st 3.47 +2.35

Ayr 16.00: Ingleby Angel(9x2) 3rd 4.96

Flas 15.15: Satchville flyer(6x3) x

Flas 16.45: Clever Lady(9x3) x

Wind 19.50: Canberra cliffs(6x2) x

Wolv 20.40: The Amber fort(2x3) 3rd 3.65

Wolv 20.40: Bruny Island(6x2) x

Daily: 3/11(27%) +1.48

Overall: 43/164(26%) +35.97(Note 2x 10/52 +4.39)

18/07/17

Bath 14.30: Evening Starlight(4x4) x

Bath 16.00: Archimedes(5x3) 1st 3.05 +1.95

Bath 16.30:Londonia(6x2) 2nd 3.32

Bevr 16.15: Talent Scout(10x1) x

Bevr 16.45: Valley Of Rocks(10x1) x

Bevr 17.15: Kilbaha Lady(7x3) x

Bevr 17.15: Bollin Ted(4x5) 1st 9.27 +7.86

Thir 19.10:Mysterial(7x1) x

Thir 20.10:The Stalking Moon(6x1) x

Thir 20.10: Totally Magic(5x2) 3rd 3.39

Thir 20.40: Jan Smuts(5x3) x

Worc 18.00: Defining Year(7x1) x

Worc 20.30: Utility(8x1) 1st 3.13 +2.02

Worc 20.30: Solstalla(8x3) 2nd 9.85

Daily: 3/14(21%) +0.83

Overall: 46/178(26%) +36.80(Note 2x 12/58 +10.27)

19/07/17

Catt 15.15: Three Duchesses(7x1) 1st 2.04 +0.99

Catt 15.15: Shambra(1x3) 3rd 4.91

Catt 15.50: Love Oasis(4x2) 2nd 4.45

Ling 16.00: Fitzwilly(7x2) 2nd 3.27

Ling 17.05: Tooty Fruitti(8x2) 3rd 2.72

Ling 17.05: Ask The Guru(7x2) 1st 5.73 +4.49

Uttx 15.35:Lady of Longstone(8x3) x

Uttx 16.40: Stonecoldsoba(9x1) 1st 4.45 +3.28

Daily: 3/8(37%) +3.76

Overall: 49/186(26%) +40.56(Note 2x 14/62 +13.75)

20/07/17

Donc 17.40: Archimedes(2x1) x

Donc 17.40: Muatadel(5x4) 1st 5.40 +4.18

Donc 19.50: Athaasel(6x3) 2nd 22.00

Donc 20.20: Seeingallthetime(7x3) x

Donc 20.50: Ingleby Mckenzie(8x2) 1st 3.00 +1.90

Epsm 18.00: Ravenhoe(6x3) x

Epsm 19.00: Human Nature(8x1) x

Epsm 20.40: Crystal Secret(5x3) x

Haml 14.30: Picks Pinta(7x3) 2nd 2.85

Haml 15.05: Yes You(10x3) 1st 4.30 +3.14

Haml 17.15: Cline(5x1) x

Leic 15.50: One big surprise(9x2) x

Leic 16.20: Ventura Knight(6x1) 1st 1.72 +0.68

Leic 17.20: Elusivity(9x2) x

Daily: 4/14(29%) -0.10

Overall: 53/200(26%) +40.46(Note 2x 15/64 +16.93)

21/07/17

Haml 17.45: Ingleby Angel(4x3) x

Haml 20.55: Stardrifter(1x3) x

Nmkt 18.40: Turning Gold(9x1) x

Nott 17.15: Toms anna(9x3) x

Pont 19.35: Avon breeze(6x2) 1st 6.38 +5.11

Pont 20.05:Morning Suit(9x3) x

Daily: 1/6(17%) +0.11

Overall: 54/206(26%) +40.57

Pretty much a break even week, The stat i thought that was the killer blow performed way above expectation,Its funny how things change around, even over smallish samples but in a short space of time...

So at the moment i am no better off for future decisions, the week felt like a year to recreate,,

The lower number stats were the most solid strike rate wise going 6/21(29%) +8.84, now showing an overall stat of 14/46(30%) +16.60, ROI: 36% and they lead the pack so far, things can change very fast though with 12 weeks of data to go...

22/07/17

Cart 15.40: Rhythm of sound(6x2) x

Hayd 20.00: Wordiness(9x1) x

Hayd 20.30: Spirit of belle(4x2) x

Ling 18.45: Esspeegee(10x3) 2nd 5.10

Mras 15.55: Tangolan(6x1) x

MRas 16.30: Muwalla(6x2) 1st 4.87 +3.68

Nmkt 15.50: Masham Star(7x2) x

Ripn 15.30: Celestation(9x3) 3rd 5.30

Ripn 16.05: Mukhayyam(8x1) 1st 6.20 +4.94

Daily: 2/9(22%) +1.62

Overall: 56/215(26%) +42.19

23/07/17

Redc 15.00: Graceful act(5x1) 2nd 9.72

Redc 16.30: Highly Sprung(8x3) 1st 6.80 +5.51

Redc 17.00: Totally Magic(5x3) 2nd 5.81

Redc 17.30: Picture Painter(9x3) x

Daily: 1/4(25%) +2.51

Overall: 57/219(26%) +44.70

24/07/17

Ayrs 14.30: Sea Of Green(7x1) x

Ayrs 14.30: Circuitous(7x3) x

Bevr 18.55: Bronze beau(9x2) x

Bevr 18.55: The nazca lines(10x2) x

Bevr 20.25: Arcane Dancer(9x3) 1st 6.34 +5.07

Bevr 20.55: Bollin Ted(6x1) 1st 2.82 +1.73

Cart 14.45: Mont Choisy(5x3) 3rd 3.40

Wind 19.15: Evening Hill(4x2) x

Wind 19.45:Majestic hero(7x3) x

Wind 20.45: Bollihope(3x2) 3rd 17.00

Daily: 2/9(22%) -0.20

Overall: 59/228(26%) +44.50(Note 2x 15/68 +12.93)

25/07/17

Chels 18.00: Anna Medici(8x3) 1st 5.22 +4.01

Flas 15.00: Nothing to lose(5x3) 1st 2.79 +1.70

Flas 15.30: Frantical(5x4) 1st 10.41 +8.94

Flas 16.30: Nabhan(8x1) 2nd 6.10

Flas 17.30: The Daley Express(8x2) 1st 5.00 +3.80

Muss 15.15: Royal Brave(1x3) 1st 3.83 +2.69

Muss 15.45: Question of faith(8x1) 2nd 4.49

Muss 16.15: Major Crispies(7x2) x

Muss 17.15: Bond bombshell(5x3) x

Muss 17.15: Our place in loule(7x3) 2nd

Nott 17.50: Touch the clouds(5x4) x

Nott 19.20: Champagne Bob(4x1) x

Nott 20.20: Mordoree(8x2) 1st 2.98 +1.88

Nott 20.50: Sir runs a lot(7x3)

Daily: 6/14(43%) +15.02

Overall: 65/242(27%) +59.52(Note 2x 15/70 +10.93)

26/07/17

Bath 14.40: Babyfact(8x3) 1st 5.97 +4.77

Bath 15.10: Love Oasis(7x2) 2nd 4.31

Bath 15.10: Farleigh Mac(6x2) x

Bath 15.40: Really Super(6x2) x

Bath 16.40: Kiruna Peak(2x3) 2nd 4.78

Catt 14.00: Placebo Effect(4x1) 1st 4.00 +2.85

Catt 16.00: Glenrowan Rose(5x1) 1st 3.19 +2.08

Catt 16.00: Landing Night(5x3) 2nd 4.97

Catt 17.00: Deben(7x2) 2nd 7.63

Catt 17.30: Swansway(7x1) x

Catt 17.30: King of the celts(7x2) x

Leic 19.20: Zapper Cass(3x4) x

Leic 19.20: African Blessing(5x4) x

Leic 20.50: Canadian Royal(7x2) x

Ling 15.50: Baby Gal(7x2) 2nd 5.07

Ling 17.20: Perla Blanca(9x2) x

Ling 17.20: EpsomSecret(9x1) 3rd 5.30

Daily: 3/17(17%) -4.30

Overall: 68/259(26%) +55.22(Note 2x 16/78 +6.01)

27/07/17

Donc 17.45: Parish Boy(7x2) x

Donc 20.20: Muatadel(7x1) 1st 10.72 +9.23

Newb 18.30:Miss mo brown bear(7x3) x

Newb 19.35: Cheerfilly(7x1) x

Newb 20.05: Zumran(6x1) x

Newb 20.40: Samarmadi(10x2) x

Sand 15.40: Eynhallow(8x1) x

Worc 13.50: Hepijeu(8x2) x

Yarm 14.40: Tyrsal(7x1) 2nd 3.70

Yarm 14.40: Outlaw Torn(3x4) 1st 14.82 +13.13

Yarm 15.50: Errismus Maximus(8x2) 1st 2.36 +1.29

Yarm 15.50: Wild Approach(8x3) x

Yarm 16.25:Multi Quest(5x3) x

Yarm 17.25: In kens memory(8x2) x

Yarm 17.25: Harba(8x1) 1st 1.67 +0.64

Daily: 4/15(27%) +13.29

Overall: 72/274(26%) +68.51(Note 2x 19/84 +19.07)

28/07/17

Asct 16.25: Monsieur Joe(7x2) x

Asct 16.25: Pettochside(4x3) 2nd 16.00

Asct 16.55: Midnight Malibu(7x2) 3rd 3.73

Chep 18.50: Peach Melba(3x2) 1st 1.84 +0.80

Chep 19.20: Hernando Torres(7x1) 2nd

Chep 19.20: Black Dave(8x2) x

Chep 19.50: Seamster(2x2) 2nd

Nmkt 17.35:Midnight whistler(8x1)x

Nmkt 17.35: Bollihope(4x3) x

Thir 14.55:Silca Mistress(8x2) x

Thir 15.30:Melaniemillie(10x2) 2nd 5.64

Thir 16.05:Oriental Lily(6x2) 2nd 2.62

Uttx 14.30: Knight Commander(5x1) 1st 1.46 +0.44

Uttx 16.15: Fit The Brief(10x3) x

Uttx 16.45: Cut the corner(9x1) 1st 2.55 +1.47

York 18.30:Lexington Times(7x2) 1st 8.16 +6.80

York 20.30:Black Isle Boy(7x2) x

Daily: 4/17(24%) -3.49

Overall: 76/291(26%) +65.02(Note 2x 19/90 +13.07)

29/07/17

Asct 14.25: Rashfords Double(9x3) x

Asct 15.00:Remarkable(7x2) x

Asct 15.00: Johnny Barnes(7x3) 4th

Ches 15.10:Toy Theatre(4x5) x

Ches 16.20: Gamesome(8x3) x

Ches 16.20: PowerAllied(8x2) x

Ches 16.55:Monaco rose(5x4) 3rd 4.57

Ches 17.25: Glenys the menace(8x1) 1st 8.80 +7.41

Ling 18.00: Sussex Ranger(10x2) 1st 7.06 +5.76

Ling 20.30: Sixties Habana(10x3) x

Nmkt 16.00: Hart stopper(10x1) x

Sals 20.15: Sterling Silva(8x2) x

York 17.00: Celestation(7x3) x

York 17.35: Jive Lady(9x1) x

Daily: 2/14(14%) +1.17

Overall: 78/305(26%) +66.19(Note 2x 19/94 +9.07)

30/07/17

Pont 14.30:Jan de heem(7x2) x

Pont 14.30: regal Mirage(9x1) 1st 2.58 +1.50

Pont 15.00: Beverley Bullet(9x3) 1st 5.73 +4.49

Pont 16.00: Avon breeze(9x1) x

Pont 16.00: Duke cosimo(7x3) x

Uttx 16.45: Wadswick Court(8x2) 1st 4.72 +3.53

Uttx 17.15: Knight Commander(2x1) 3rd 3.10

Daily: 3/7(43%) +5.52

Overall: 81/312(26%) +71.71(Note 2x 20/98 +7.57)

31/07/17

Ayrs 14.30: Insurplus(7x3) x

Ayrs 15.00: Wor Lass(7x3) 3rd 27.00

Ayrs 15.00: Braes Of Lochalsh(6x2) x

Ayrs 15.30:Strong Steps(2x4) 1st 9.39 +7.97

Ayrs 15.30: Crazy Tornado(7x1) x

Ayrs 16.00: Mulligatawny(9x1) x

Ayrs 16.00: Gworn(7x2) x

Ayrs 16.30:Gilmer(2x4) x

Ayrs 17.00: Goninodaethat(7x2) x

Ayrs 17.00: Cheeni(7x1) x

Nabb 14.45: Miss spent(3x1) 2nd 2.52

Nabb 15.45: Treasure the ridge(8x2) 1st 5.80 +4.56

Wind 18.40: Fast and hot(7x1) x

Daily: 2/13(15%) +1.53

Overall: 83/325(26%) +73.24(Note 2x, 21/106 +8.54)

So that is the month ended, now the fun starts...

Taking out 2 per race left the stats looking like this..

62/219(28%) +64.70, ROI: 29.54%

Further breaking down we go to the lower 1st number in brackets ie 1x-5x, we have stats off as follows

23/77(30%) +35.20, ROI: 46%, so clearly that is the strongest play within the month..., This does not clash with 2 per race as it will always be a first choice as a bet regardless as to whether it makes the grade or not..

To break things down a little further i will look at the 1,2,3 in the 2nd part of the bracket, ie x1,x2, x3...

(1) Stat came back at 29/96(30%) +8.16, ROI: 8.50%, Without a doubt, this is the best piece of data i have come across so far, The market will generally always overbet this guy anyway, but to have a 30% strike rate over say 100 bets and generate that profit is definately not good enough, good to know this....

(2) Stat came back at 25/113(22%) -10.56, This comes as a big shock to me as i would never have thought this to be unprofitable, it could be just a bad month but at 113 bets, im surprised at this, again another eye opener, so looks like 3 is the kiddo for the month,will see how he goes..

(3) Stat came back at 22/96(23%) +33.75, ROI: 35%, I also noticed a lot of places with the 3 stat,at big prices as well, That stat came back at 49/96(51%), That would have been a fairly big winning month in the bsp place markets, Ur usually looking for 46%+ to be anyways profitable and that is not backing favs either, but in this month there was some really nice prices, the percentage return beats it anyway, but id say it was +20pts at a guess, its something i will go through at some stage as i would love to beat those markets consistently to bsp as its very hard to do..

I think being biased for now, but more so to save myself a lot of time i will just recreate low 1-5s and "3" stat for august, I know in september "3" stat will do well because i remember a horse called wahaab winning at chepstow, he was a 9x3 and he won at 48.xx, was the only bet in the race as well, so will see what happens.....

TrendBetPro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14th October 2017 @ 04:44

"Twitter for Horses"

Hey all

So as usual, no thought or preparation put into this post, but here is a crazy idea to engage the masses into the sport of Kings, and Queens....

Lately, there has been more of a push than other times to get people into racing through syndicates at affordable prices, this can only be a good thing as the fun element will outweigh the cost for all involved...

Whilst in the future, the absolute model for betting on horses will slightly change into a more data structured model, where "your systems", such as jockey/trainer/colours(Latter overlooked by punter) may well be the newer markets introduced to the game, It makes sense to have a marketplace introduced like this, due to stat/data reading to gauge at least the jockeys, similiar to team players such as Premiership footballers, Rugby players etc, For if u do not know, these players are fitted with stat readers on their performance in real time so we can see movement, tackles,speed, etc..., like it comes up on the screen in real time integration.., Obviously its Jockeys where this market comes in more than others...

In my homeland world, If you are associated with "betting on horses", "your a gambler", not frowned apon by any means, but u are tagged for a sport that u study day in day out,just the same as any other sport, but because its horse racing it's obviously gambling and u cant win, to outside forces/thinking as it looks like ur getting lucky if xyz horse pops in..., luckily in most cases, the Irish love a gamble so its not too bad...

If you follow the Premier league and your favourite team is Man Utd and you say, i have €20 on MU ht/ft, €20 on them +2 goals, and €50 on them to win the game outright, U have wagered €90(At low odds), But it's sound, as "you support them", and it's ok as they are your team and the expectancy is there for them to make u a profit on any given day they play, "Oh he loves UTD, and "if they lost, they lost)...

If you put the same scenario out where a horse racing punter puts €10x9 bets on various horses for the same outlay,can he not have the same love for "XYZ horse"?, The answer is,"No he cant," unless they win on the day to the perceptor, u have to "bring it on", every day, and its impossible as there is too much information to decipher that will skew thinking on a day to day basis...

So, im gone off topic slightly here, so i will move on to the topic as crazy as it may sound....

With the advent of "pooled betting" at live racecourses, and the addition of a "live cash out feature", The racecourses are "Fighting back", and it is only a good thing, whilst it may not pay dividends to the more singles minded professsional punter, It gives a "lottery style feature to the masses", where they can feel the buzz race to race, and the integration comes closer in the daily experience...

Onto "Twitter for horses",

Anybody that has a passion for horse racing, will always hold certain horses close to their heart, so why not introduce a model where the "horse" is on twitter?, They say that a horse has the closest traits to a human, so why not depict their well being, future races, stat form, course form etc,etc...?

An example of this would be, Hi, Im @Ulyssess, Im a group1 player, reaching for the stars, I was named after a mythical god and i have stepped up to the plate, taking down the richest races this year, Im a boss..., RTs appreciated..

The same can be said for a class 6 reg at wolverhampton, Hi im @xxx, Im a class 6 reg hoping to break into the big time, im owned by @xx owners, my stats here are xx, on a losing streak at the moment but am ready to bounce back..., Depict the stats, followers will follow.....

You could say, how can u run all the horses on twitter, and the easy answer is, If the majority owning are syndicates, surely most have families will have a son or daughter who have "Spare SM time", to follow the horses progress, "look at me today", Basking in the sun, xx looks well today, been on a bit of a losing streak but feel back to my best, "follow the horse's mental progression", He wont know if he loses on the day so social media wont affect him, "He will know if he is a winner tho"...

They say within the industry that all involved love their horses, and it is clear to see that they do, but to progress it forward, "The horse" has to become the ultimate superstar, whether it is a Group1 baller or low stakes grinder, they all have their merits as a person....

BlaBlaBla

TrendBetPro

 

 

23rd August 2017 @ 23:27

Horse Racing Tipstrr of the year 2017(ROI)

Hey All

With the Tipstrr platform now into its first year, lets see how who are the top performers so far....

Just missing out on the top 10 spot was GG Card Tips, A high volume tipster, who said, "Profit is his game",, just misses out...

(10) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/jumping4profit

Long term grinder jumping4profit has made a resurgence of late, after early promise he succumbed to a tough nh season but has clawed his way back of late, It was a tough season for all this year, but he has held his head high and has stated he is looking forward to "Summer Jumps", Currrently at an all time 14% ROI with a 30% SR, he stated "He is very much looking forward to the next few months and he is not to be underestimated", Currently best priced 50/1 b365/hills, its not beyond the realms of possbility that he can turn the tide here...

(9) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/valueracer

Coming in at no 9 is the dangerous value racer, This tipster employs a style like no other, At first glance it looks like like he is betting on everything but on further inspection it seems this guy is a dangerous player who is employing a style that seems "employable", whilst i think his volume of betting will take him out of the race for "Tipstrr of the year", his style seems unique and is not to be written off, There has been trickles of money for him as off late, best priced 66/1 bet365, he is as short as 40/1 with paddy powers at time of writing...

(8) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/trebletrouble

After storming onto the scene, TrebleTrouble has struggled as of late, Taking down tipstrr of the month for March, this young gun has failed to deliver as of late, Employing a multiple style, the service has to "hit on the day to thrive", however, "things happen", and heads held up high can see a resurgence,, volume of bets suggest it will be tough to win Tipstrr of the year, Bookies have have been holding firm tho and betfair sportsbook are offering best price 66/1 with the service generally priced at 50/1, could be a good ew bet paying 4 places....

(7) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/racingpro

Hitting number 7, Racingpro is another who has been on a real resurgence as of late, a long time pro, this tipster has dug deep to fight his way back up the leaderboards and get his career back on track, March being his downfall, this not deterred him in his quest for greatness and has hit big as off late, currrently best priced 40/1 william hill and generally 33/1, is another who could be a steal at the price...

(6) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/2pro

A former winner of tipstrr of the month, 2pro have held their own in their quest for greatness, whilst not promising their early form, these two young guns are a dangerous combination, employing a tough style to overcome they are still chomping at the bit and are not to be written off, we had a chance to speak with this dangerous combination..

Interviewer: Thank you for your time, You have had an up and down run on tipstrr, but predominantly ur stats are great,can you tell me how u are finding ur run for the title?

2Pro: We have not had the best run lately, but we are very focused going into the summer season, The tipster game is a tough life, but we are focused on the title, whilst we are slightly off the pace at the moment, we feel we can challenge for it, our win strike rate is quite good considering we only tip 2 per day, we will be trying our best...

The bookies were quick to react to 2pro's comments cutting them from best price 33/1 stan james into best price 20/1 bfsb....

(5) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/racingenthusiast

Hitting number 5 is the self styled racing enthusiast, in and out of the game, Racing Enthusiast has been flying high off late, its hard to depict whether he will be a major force but his rate is good so far, the bookies have been cautious on him offering 16/1 best price with coral but can be found as high as 40/1 in places...

(4) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/bookiesenemy1

After several attempts in the new year to make peace from major bookies such as Paddy Power, hills and ladbrokes, BookiesEnemyNo1 held his tongue and answered back on April fools day with a devastating display which seen the bookies waving white flags, This long term grinder has long been a thorn in the bookies side and seems to have no intention of joining the enemy at any stage.., Currently best priced at 12/1 bfsb, this top pro is as low as 7/1 in places and 12/1 could be a very good price given his dangerous nature...

We caught up with this mysterous punter for an exclusive interview..

Interviewer: First off, congrats on ur long term success, Can u tell me ur plans for the future?

BookiesEnemyNumber1: Im just focused on the summer season at the moment, but at the same time i want to win the title, im a long term grinder i want to keep up the pace so i will be trying my best throughout the season, Im not one to be written off given my previous form, Im out to win...

Interviewer: Thank you, BookiesEnemyNumber1

(3) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/trendbetpro

Former Superstar TrendbetPro occupies the number 3 spot, After a turbulent year "The Peoples Champ" has not been able to regain the form once promised, after retiring from the game and forfeiting his career earnings, he decided to give it one more go but he has not been able to step up to the highest level when it mattered, In an exclusive interview, we caught up with the declining pro...

Interviewer: Hey TrendBetPro, 2017 has not been kind to you, can u tell us how life is treating you?

TrendBetPro: Hey, Its been the worst year of my life, I failed to step up to the game and no excuses, i lost my way..

Interviewer: You have had a small resurgence of late, do u think ur coming back to form?

TrendBetPro: Absolutely not, its been a lucky run and i would not look into it, not even close to being to pro level...

Interviewer: Ok, How do you see ur year panning out?

TrendBetPro: I honestly dont know, not looking good to be honest...

Interviewer: Ok, Thank you for your time, I hope to see u vying for the title at Christmas

Trendbetpro: Thank you buddy, i hope im there too, ty...

He is 20/1 for the title generally

(2) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/irishracingpro

Occupying the number 2 spot is Trendbetpros "alter ego" Irishracingpro, This tipster has been out on his own for quite a while, he has had ups and downs but he is a very dangerous player, he concentrates more so on the Irish scene and can strike dangerously on a whim..

We caught up with this tipster in an exclusive interview..

Interviewer: Hi, Irishracingpro, its nice to talk with you, how is life treating you?

IrishRacingPro: Ahh, life is what it is, but im in good form, Id like to win the Tipstrr title and that is my focus at the moment..

Interviewer: Cool, Can you determine your recent successs to anything specific?

IrishRacingPro: Being honest, Recently i employed the services of a mind game coach from foreign shores and it has helped a lot with my selection process...

Interviewer: Oh, Pray tell?

IrishRacingPro: Well, i should not say really, but in my early days i heard about this guy from sweden who was mindsetting all the poker player players to dominant success on the online scene and i approached him to ask could he do the same in a tipster sense..

Interviewer: Oh, that sounds interesting, how has that worked for u?

IrishRacingPro: Win or lose, it has been unbelievable, this guy is semi underground but he has said its ok to mention him as he believes in me for whatever reason..

Interviewer: Can u give us a bit more background on ur secret weapon??

IrishRacingPro: Sure, With his consent, His name is Fred Ekermann, Or "Dr Ekermann", but likes to be known as Fred, A Product of the University of Stockholm, Way back when, he gained notoriety in his homeland for coining phrases such as "Fortune favours the brave", and "Withouth risk there is no reward", albeit in his native tongue, and these sayings have resonated to the western world or life as we know it...

Interviewer: Thank you for that, i will google him

IrishRacingPro: U wont find him there, his teachings are underground, haha..

Interviewer: Ok, Thank you IrishRacingPro, can i ask you one last question? How do u feel about omaharacings run at the moment to knock u off the top spot?

IrishRacingPro/TrendBetpro: i mentored this guy in early days but he wont admit to it now with success, i, 1 million percent will destroy him and every1 else in the long run and i cant wait, he has a couple hundred bets to go yet so will see how long run pans out, but atm he is the best in the world without a doubt..., I have (1 bullet to fire that will end game in a short space of time.).

Interviewer: Thank you for your time.IrishRacingPro

Irishracingpro is 6/1 for the title gen(Good Bet)

(1) https://tipstrr.com/tipster/omaharacing

OmahaRacing leads the way by a mile atm, he has been on the most unbelievable run ever seen, and is definately the best tipster in the world at the moment by far, I dont think his run will stop as i know him and he is the real deal, and fair play to him, and good luck to him, he is as low as 15/8 for the title but i wonder will something come out of the woodwork to halt his gallop, ud never know :)

Thank you for your time

TrendBetPro

 

 

 

 

 

4th May 2017 @ 05:31

Aintree Preview Day 2

Day 1 seen the punters running for cover, as the bookies gobbled up all their hard earned cash with a string of shock winners on the day..

Only the real high rollers seen the obvious plays Defi De Seuil and Buveur D'air roll in for them, Will tomorrow tell the same tale?, We shall see...

13:40 Aintree 7 Apr 2017

Alder Hey Children's Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)

Race 1 sees a big field grade 3 hurdle with £39k up top to the winner, The eye is immediately drawn to a double colour significance of one Mrs Kelvin Hughes who shares ownership in both North Hill Harvey for the Skelton combo and Thomas Campbell for the dangerous Henderson/DeBoinville combo, The former has a high level of form albeit not showing up so well last time out at Cheltenham, course form counts for a lot and is something he is lacking here, also 5lb above last winning mark is a concern giving weight away to a competitive field..

Thomas Campbell looks to have the better credentials of the two, 5th in the Martin Pipe beaten just under 5 lengths, was a very promising run and you would imagine he will come on for that, handicapper upped him 2lbs which is irrelevant and he looks set to go close all being well..

Gigginstown house stud are represented by Ice Cold Soul who comes here on a high after taking down a €59k pot when last seen, so is no stranger to the big stage, up 10lbs for that, he was impressive that day seeing off plenty of high stakes regs and there could be more to come..

Selections:

Thomas Campbell 0.75 pt win 9/1 Generally

Ice Cold Soul 0.5pt win 12/1 Various

14:20 Aintree 7 Apr 2017

Crabbie's Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)

Race 2 sees none of the opposition run at this track previously, Mount Mews looks a beast in the making with the form he has showed thus far this year, whilst River Wylde sets the bar with a 3rd in the Champion Hurdle 3 weeks ago, However i have to side with Moon Racer to bounce back here with no better operation than the Pipe's to turn the tide and see the "Peoples Champ", to run out a popular winner here, with a £56k pot to boot...

Selection:

Moon Racer 1pt win 4/1 generally

14:50 Aintree 7 Apr 2017

Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Another £56k pot up top sees Cheltenham 1-2 in this sphere Might Bite and Whisper lock horns again, Might Bite looked a class act at Cheltenham and will certainly be coming here to gobble up the opposition,

Whisper is 2/2 here which stands in his favour and could well improve and make his presence felt, worth a shot to upset the hot favourite here..

Virgilio is another with course form but would need to improve a ton to play a hand..., Callett Mad looks out of his depth here..

Marinero for Gigginstown could be the one at a price to upset the odds here, forgiving his last run, he ran Thistlecrack close at Cheltenham prior to that, Tough to see him upsetting the recent form here though..

Selection:

Whisper 1pt win 3/1 stan james, 11/4 generally

 

15:25 Aintree 7 Apr 2017

JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

The big race sees Sub Lieutenant head the early market exchanges and rightly so, his form stacks up, Gigginstown are definately eyeing this race and if he shows up on the day i cant see anything getting near him in this, others have questions to answer and he looks the one to me here...

The early markets speak in his favour and looks the one to be on here..

Selection:

Sub Lieutenant 1.5pt win 10/3 Boylesports, 3/1 generally...

Full Selections: Aintree: 07/04/2017

13.40: Thomas Campbell 0.75pt win 9/1 generally, Ice Cold Soul 0.5pt win 12/1 generally

14.20: Moon Racer 1pt win 4/1

14.50: Whisper 1pt win 3/1 Stan James 3/1, 11/4 generally

15.25: Sub Lieutenant 1.5pt win 10/3 boylesports, 3/1 generally

16.05: Gold Present 0.5pts ew 11/1 generally

16.40: Moulin A Vent 0.5pts ew 14/1 Various

17.15: Western Ryder 1pt win 6/1 betbright, 11/2 generally

 

 

 

 

 

 

6th April 2017 @ 21:14

Raiders Of The Lost Archives(UK)

Good afternoon

Following on from the last post, we will take a look at how Uk trainers performed on the flat over in Ireland in 2016..

UK Raiders

Uk raiders In Ireland(flat 2016)

Charlie Fellowes 1/3(33%) +4.00
Charles Hills 1/3(33%) +12.00
David Barron 1/4(25%) +19.00
Michael Stoute 1/3(33%) +1.00
Charlie Appleby 1/5(20%) +4.00
Jamie Osborne 1/6(17%) -3.38
Roger Charlton 1/1(100%) +2.25
Mick Easterby 1/1(100%) +16.00
Michael Dods 1/1(100%) +1.25
Paul Midgely 2/7(29%) +3.50
Robert Cowell 2/5(40%) +10.25
Mick Channon 2/7(29%) +21.00
Brian Ellison 2/13(15%) +10.00

Total Stats: 17/59(29%) +100.87pts, ROI: 171% To SP

So there u go, probably the best set of stats i have ever came across in my life, A lot of the Irish raiders that go to the uk have abysmal stats in Ireland, Trainer who had shamash and lucent dream today was 1/75 in Ireland last year...

This table does not take into account UK Raiders that have had ZERO winners over in Ireland, An example here would be Richard Fahey, who by memory does not do so well as a Raider, Stats correct temselves over time so in a way, he could be dangerous going forward at some stage...

Here is the data to play around with, its a good site overall as well...

http://www.irishracing.com/statistics?fi=LTBYS&m=0&prft=F

TrendBetPro

4th April 2017 @ 15:23

Raiders Of The Lost Archives(Irish)

Good Evening

Tonight we will take a look at Raiders from Ireland plying their trade over in the UK for the 2016 and 2017 season on the flat..

When i first introduced these i just knew from memory that they performed to a good standard and it just made sense, whilst digging lasnyte, i managed to come across some data that further supports the claim..

The data that i found only supports trainers that at least had one win across the water, but we can use these guys for reference for the season ahead...

This is the table, Profit is to SP, so we can further enhance these stats by early prices alone..

2016

Irish Raiders In the Uk(Flat)

Seamus Fahey 1/4(25%) +1.50
Robbie Burns 1/1(100%) +5.50
Jarlath Fahey 1/1(100%) +6.00
Kevin Condon 1/1(100%) +4.50
Johnny Murtagh 1/5(20%) -2.25
Dermot Weld 1/8(13%) -0.50
Mick Halford 1/6(17%) +5.00
W.P. Browne 1/3(33%) -1.09
Adrian McGuinness 1/3(33%) -0.25
PJ Murphy 1/4(25%) -1.09
Tracey Collins 1/1(100%) +11.00
AJ Martin 2/11(18%) +5.00
Andrew Slattery 2/5(40%) +8.88
Gordon Elliot 4/22(18%) +4.38
Adrian Keatley 10/44(23%) +2.48

Total Stats: 29/119(24%) +50.40pts, ROI: 42% To SP

2017

Irish Raiders In the Uk(Flat)

Tracey Collins 1/2(50%) +0.63(Think Almoner, 5/1>13/8)
Peter Fahey 1/2(50%) +0.50(Think Royal Blessing, 3s>6/4)
Adrian Joyce 2/8(25%) -1.62(Think Times In Anatefka, twice in 3 days)
John Mcconnell 2/2(100%) +6.00(Lucent dream + Shamash, both heavily gambled)
Adrian Mcguinness 3/8(38%) +0.36(Oor Jock)
John Feane 1/3(33%) +3.50(Vivat Rex)
PJ Murphy 1/2(50%) +1.50

Total Stats: 11/27(41%) +10.87pts, ROI: 40% to SP

So, to the naked eye, a statistician or enthusiast would argue that these samples are way to small, but in this instance it creates the opposite effect as its over a long period, and these trainers have time to think where to place their horses and does not really make any sense for them to be firing volume in the uk without being "Out to win", as it costs money to transport horses and Ireland is not a big country to send your horses from A to B courses...

TrendBetPro

12th March 2017 @ 14:04

Wolverhampton Preview

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6th March 2017 @ 11:36

"That Stat"

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5th March 2017 @ 20:01

"The Horses That Ran"

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5th March 2017 @ 19:29

Leopardstown Preview

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5th March 2017 @ 13:31

That Stat

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2nd March 2017 @ 21:23

Ffos Las Preview

Hey All

So, decent enough card at Ffos Las today and will get straight into it...

Race 1: 14.20

Straight away the first thing spotted is that Davy Russell is over here riding today, Colours check in this reveals its not for "Walters Plant Hire", For those that dont know, Dai Walters owns the track at Ffos Las and a few months back both parties came to a "Gentleman's agreement that Russell would ride his horses when available...

On form here it seems pretty much a match between Bob Mahler and Swift Crusador, The former was 1/2 length behind Gayebury in 3rd on his previous run around this trip and that reads as stand out form, considering Gayebury's display last weekend, Swift Crusador brings strong point form to the table with a second to De Dollar Man on his penultimate start also reading very well as De Dollar Man has thrived since joining the pro ranks..

Race 2: 14.50

Race 2 is a 5 runner Novice Chase, where Jockey/Owner combo of Russell/Walters have their first runner of the day in the shape of West Wizard who won on his penultimate start at this track, Looking through the race its not one to play in general, Novice Chase, Heavy ground, Suspect jumping will come into play but in general the line up is off decent standard, but nothing really jumps out here other than the combo mentioned...

Race 3: 15.20

Our selection Steel River runs here with Nick Schofield having his only ride at the meeting, Is a negative Market Mover this morning which brings confidence levels down a bit, but have to think a reproduction of last weeks performance will see him go close, Get in Pat and L Frank Baum are opposing rivals who were behind him that day, there is also a double colours significance in the race with Filatore and L Frank Baum down the bottom representing the same owner...

Race 4: 15.50

Paddys Motorbike represents Russell/Walters combo here, was well beaten when last seen when stepped up in trip, back today to a trip where he has put in his best performance as a pro since switching codes, Whilst im not 100% sure how handicapping works, i think they add 30-40lbs in the ratings when translated from Flat to Nh, Paddy's Motorbike was 92 rated on the flat and normally the higher the rating the more they add when the horse switches codes, I may well be wrong here, anyways he has been allocated a mark off 115, which is 23lbs above his highest flat rating and may be "thrown in" due to that alone..., Way of the world's form reads pretty good here as well...

Race 5: 16.20

Johns Luck is the eyecatcher here with Davy Russell booked to ride for the Neil Mulholland yard, he is 8lb above last winning mark but is a potential improver, Batavir looks the danger here, With riders claim he is now 8lb below last winning mark, Is a good reg in general and looks possibly placed to win here, Interesting race....

Race 6: 16.50:

The final race here throws up quite a few significances here, Firstly the fact that Nico De Boinville has only one ride here today is quite significant to me, Angel of Harlem is the horse, first time out and is also a market mover....

Jp McManus colours also has a first time out in Duc De Beauchene who cost a whopping £145k...

Dai Walters also has a first time out with the aptly named LuckOfTheDraw here, Hard to gauge whether he is any good or not, but just the name alone with Walters owning the track is significant in itself...

Over at Musselburgh there are some Irish significances there...

Firstly Paul Townend comes over for just the one ride on Windshear who was a group performer on the flat rated as high as 112 at one stage but could not cut it at the highest level, Offloaded for £35k, and having his first run in his new sphere he is certainly interesting just for the jockey booking alone..

In a way, a bigger significance would be that a small trainer from Antrim, I Ferguson sends 4 over with Danny Mullins riding all 4, he is a very good jockey over in Ireland, The trainer has been winless for quite a while due to "Colours domination" in Irish racing where most face the same fate and is forced to try his hand over on Scottish shores, Ramore Will in the 14.30 and Areema in the 15.00 are the same colours for Mr W.J. Porter, with the formers recent form reading the best off the 2, but forgiving the latters last run its not terrible form either, Also saddles Bridge End in the 14.00 and Steel's cotton in the 17.00 both different colours....

Bypassing Wincanton, will have a quick look at Newcastle on the All Weather for any colours...

In the 18.00 Pacommand and the 19.30 our selection Berlios represent the same colours and same trainer combo in Barron/Makin, One is called "Lets be lucky 10", The other called "Lets be lucky 6", Hopefully 6 is the lucky number today here for us, Unfortunately in the 19.30, Dr Marwan Koukash is double handed against us with "Ballesteros" for Fahey/Hanagan and "The Hooded Claw" for Easterby/Hart so its never easy...

Silvestre De sousa is back on the scene, I recall an interview during the summer where De Sousa spoke highly of trainer Chris Dwyer and they are a lethal combo and one to watch out for all year round, He rides Foie Gras in the 18.00 and Arzaak in the last, both different colours...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

1st March 2017 @ 11:48

CardPlayer

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27th February 2017 @ 11:21

"The Horses That Ran"

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19th February 2017 @ 19:54

"That Stat"

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16th February 2017 @ 20:50

Meydan 09/02/2017

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8th February 2017 @ 20:44

7x Trends

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7th February 2017 @ 13:10

"That Stat"

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5th February 2017 @ 23:45

Dubai Stats

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3rd February 2017 @ 00:22

Jebel Ali 03/02/2017

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2nd February 2017 @ 20:05

Meydan 02/02/2017

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1st February 2017 @ 18:41

Dubai Stats

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30th January 2017 @ 20:08

75% Rule

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25th January 2017 @ 21:17

Meydan 26/01/2017

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25th January 2017 @ 20:06

75% Rule

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24th January 2017 @ 21:28

Dubai Stats

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24th January 2017 @ 11:11

"That Stat"

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20th January 2017 @ 22:31

Dubai Stats

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20th January 2017 @ 00:22

Jebel Ali 20/01/2017

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19th January 2017 @ 23:11

Meydan 19/01/2017

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18th January 2017 @ 20:42

Stat Roundup

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18th January 2017 @ 02:11

75% Rule

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14th January 2017 @ 23:39

Meydan 14/01/2017

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13th January 2017 @ 22:22

Solution To Limitation

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12th January 2017 @ 21:26

Meydan 12/01/2017

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12th January 2017 @ 12:50

Dubai Stats

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12th January 2017 @ 02:17

That Stat

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10th January 2017 @ 21:22

The Horses That Ran

Hey All

It was New Years Eve, There was an eerie feeling in the Trendbet camp after a bad Christmas period,

The Trendbet faithful kept quiet and bided their time, but there was a sense in the air that they were chomping at the bit for winners...

We kicked off the day with Supasundae, had been very steady in the market early doors, the market went for him in the morning, we got on 3/1 generally, backed into 7/4f, won well, was 7 horses or less trend as well...

Burtons Well lined out for us in the next, this was a really good race to watch, thought charlie deutsch gave horse a briliant ride, he was stealing ground every fence he jumped, i rate him highly and will be keeping an eye out for him, was slow into the market, missed 4s, got 3/1, returned the same, was good performance..

Rock on Rocky was never at the races and came a lucky 2nd when booked for third...

Onto the lucky last we had Temple road, got on early doors at 10/3, was hammered into 11/10, Jockey dropped him out the back handy, It looked like he had got a new pair of blue blinkers for Christmas saying "look at me", found the split nicely at the end and won pulling up, i had spotted he was out the following friday, i left him out because bookies went in very short 7/4, he drifted out to 7/2 and came 2nd, should have won it tho so could be more to come if mark remains unchanged and with that an 8.33pt point profit was secured on the day...

We came into town on New Years day armed with 5 selections...

Broughtons Star gave a no show in the 1st..

Montana Belle was up next and lifted the spirits with a good performance winning at 7/1, Dylan Robinson looks like a very good 7lb claimer and getting plenty of rides for Gigginstown Colours...

Ruby Walsh left Top o the ra too far back and was a poor performance from the no1 kiddo dropping us a point..

Dawerann was a disastrous performance and left me feeling tricked, any time u see a horse with over 80% market share on oddschecker its looking like better off to leave them alone...

Down to the lucky last we went with an each way play with my manikeno, He became Pricewise selection the following morning, Trendbet members were on the ante-post at 12s, was backed into 8s into the end, good permormance to come 2nd but run in was too short to be coming flying like that, 2.3pts secured on the day....

Onto Monday we had 3 selections going into battle, 2 x Irish sent over and a hughie morrisson donk on the day, we were quickly down 2 pts with 2 bad performances especially Not A Bad Oul Day who came stone last and left me feeling fried...

Onto to the lucky last we had Vivat Rex to save the day, got on 8s early doors, market backed him into 11/2, thankfully he won securing a 6 point profit on the day for members, All of a sudden it was beginning to look a lot like Christmas, albeit a week to late...

A much needed day off on Tuesday was followed by a disaster day on Wednesday going 0/3 and dropping the points profit down to +13.63 in the period... Trendbet was quick to announce that Newcastle AW was getting the boot for future profitability purposes...

We had 4 guys going into war on thursday including a maximum each way selection...

Pivot Bridge kicked off the day in style, bolting in 4s>11/4 to leave Trendbet members freerolling on the day..

Played it safe on blue bahia with an ew play, almost done the bizz going from the front, but found one to good on the day..

Things happen was backed 3/1>7/4 in the next but was a well beaten 2nd..

Not a penny for Max Ew Selection who drifted to 12/1, thankfully he ran a decent race and secured place money, leaving a 5.05pt profit on the day within the patform and an 18.68 profit for the period...

We rolled into town Friday armed with 2 selections...

Lakeside Castle secured profit early with a facile success romping in by 23l beating a 1/2 shot in the process, I had mentioned the form of his irish races was good and it paid off..

I had given up hope on Yasir before the race with price drifting to 5.1 on the exchanges versus his SP, did not bode well, however, he travelled with the zame zest as his previous race and thankfully Joe Fanning timed it to perfection, We incurred a 15p rule 4 here but still returned a healthy 5 point profit thus increasing the pot to 23.68 pts...

Saturday was tougher with in and out performances but thankfully Frivolous Prince saved the day gaining a 1pt profit and with that the week ended in a healthy 24.68pt profit on the platform...

Return Strike Rate: 12/25(48%) +24.68 pts, ROI: 93%, Total Staked on Platform £266, Avg Stake: £10.06...

Actual Win Strike Rate: 9/25(36%) +21.5 pts at level stakes, ROI: 86%

BSP Win Stats: 9/25(36%) +18.07 pts, ROI: 72%, Level stakes -5% Commission paid...

Overall Win Strike Rate stands at 62/204(30%) FYI.....

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

 

8th January 2017 @ 02:10

Jebel Ali 06/01/2017

Hey All

Back with analysis for Jebel Ali's 6 race card on Friday...

Race 1: 10.15

Very colours dominated with 4 for khalid khalifa, with 3 being trained by Ernst Oertel, interesting that all 4 are wearing blinkers for the first time, Dobbs/watson has one in it that has not been seen since last february..., form is very hard to gauge at this track, will have to go for the recent winner as won well lto and the blinkers will keep him straight as was a bit all over the place when winning last time.., will go for the other colours at the bottom with Tadhg O'Shea on...

NAP: Af Al Jahed

NB: Af Yatroq

No Price data yet

Race 2: 10.45

Not colours dominated, Jim Crowley rides one for Watson here and will look no further than that,, better performer on dirt than turf, again will go against dobbs/watson for next best and take a chance with Tides Rise who has been knocking on the door lately..

NAP: Al Mohtaseb 6/1 willhill

NB: Tides Rise 6/1 pp/bfsb

Race 3: 11.15

I like the one at the bottom in this called Ejbaar who is ex Robert Cowell, i also like these colours, yellow with the 3 dots in centre, dobbs/watson has also the same colours, these are the 2 for me in this one...

NAP: Ejbaar 10/1 PP/bfsb

NB: Indescribable 2/1 pp/bfsb

Race 4: 11.45

Dobbs/watson same colours again for me here with say no more, kind of remembering some of the horses now, Najm Suhail bolted up over CD a couple of runs back and has ran well since and he looks the danger...

NAP: Say No More 13/8 hills

NB: Najm Suhail 10/1 PP/bfsb

Race 5: 12.15

Big field here, remember a couple of these horses, dobbs/watson have tadarrok, has won over cd, Pollination is ex godolphin and lightly raced so far so will just go with these 2 guys here...

NAP: Pollination 4/1 pp/bfsb

NB: Tadarrok 4/1 hills

Race 6: 12.45

Maiden stakes in the last, Shillong ran in a better race last week at meydan and in an ordinary affair can improve for that run, Bochart would be another i would be interested in here, not a lot to go on anywhere else...

NAP: Shillong 10/1 pp/bfsb

NB: Bochart 11/2 hills

Actual Results:

10.15: Af Al Jahed 5/6

10.45: Ormindo 4/1

11.15: Ejbaar 7/1

11.45: Salvadori 6/1

12.15: Zain Empire 33/1

12.45: Bochart 9/2

NAP Totals: 1/6(17%) +2.00

Overall Totals: 4/13(31%) +7.11, ROI: 55%

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

5th January 2017 @ 23:14

Meydan 05/01/2017

Hey All

Back with analysis for racing in Meydan..

Tomorrow seems like the real start to the season and will be an interesting day..

Race 1: 14.30

Sheikh Hamdan is 5 handed in this with Jim Crowley having his first ride for him on these shores on Af Mathmoon who came second in this very race last year, Watson has two for Hamdan as well, Dobbs rides impressive lto winner Shateh for a different combo but because of the fact of hamdan having 5 in this i think its best to concentrate on his colours here....

NAP: Af Mathmoon 13/8 PP

NB: Manark 14/1 bfsb

Best Backed: Shateh 44% 11/4

Race 2: 15.05

Not colours dominated and quite tricky, Indian runner here in Desert God, has won last 9 races in a row, but what has he been beating?, Only double handed colours here are Emirates Skyline and Rio Tigre, Crowley has a ride in Zamaam and maybe step up to 1m4f will suit here, not really too confident for anything here, will see what happens...

NAP: Desert God 7/1 Various

NB: Zamaam 14/1 Generally

Best Backed: Emirates Skyline 64% 9/2

Race 3: 15.40

Doug Watson is 4 handed in this all for different colours, again not colours dominated, Storm belt was very impressive lto, another really tough race just going to take a chance on a couple and see what happens...

NAP: Mizbah 12/1 various

NB: Storm Belt 7/4 various

Best Backed: Hunting Ground 64% 8/1 generally

Race 4: 16.15

Big field 5f handicap here, sheikh hamdan has 3 in it, Jim Crowley rides Ertijaal who won this last year, goes well fresh, hard to get away from but price very slim, very tricky race, The happy prince is ex aidan o brien but not known for 5f sprinters, however pat cosgrave takes the ride on return to scene here after ban, Interesting race with plenty of decent Uk/Ire regs in it...

NAP: Ertijaal 7/4 Coral

NB: The Happy Prince 14/1 PP

Best Backed: Sir Maximillian 51% 11/1

Race 5: 16.50

Group 2 race here with the biggest pot of the day on offer, Have to go for the Dobbs/Watson combo here in shape of Polar River, Won 1000 guineas and oaks in UAE and second in derby, probably needed the race lto and looks the one here, fitzgerald was very impressive lto and Emotionless who threatened to be a star in early days is bred for dirt for Buick/Appleby(Godolphin) combo, buick has a good strike rate out here afaik...

NAP: Polar River 3/1 Various

NB: Emotionless 4/1 Coral

Best Backed: Polar River 57% 3/1

Race 6: 17.25

Can the exact same named horse from the same owners win twice on the day for Jim Crowley??, Not sure whether i have ever seen this before or whether its a typo, does not seem to be though, weird, Ertijaal goes well fresh coming 2nd here in a group 2 after a break, I like the look of Silent Attack with Pat Cosgrave booked for bin suroor, Tricky, just because of the fact the exact same names, colours, crowley etc, would be a good one if they both won on the day..., Fahey/Buick combo team up for Dr Marwan Koukash as well with Gabrial who is no slouch on his day..

NAP: Ertijaal 3/1 various

NB: Silent Attack 8/1 generally

Best Backed: Ertijaal 57% 3/1

Race 7: 18.00

Very competitive in the last, Famous Irish horse Gordon lord byron takes his chance, Sheikh Hamdan is 6 handed in this and its probably foolish off me to go against any of his crew but American Hope jumps out at me here and Christophe Soumillin takes the ride for Bin Suroor and has pretty good form.., De Kock has 3 for sheikh hamdan, and there are a few good UK horses in this, extremely tough race...

NAP: American Hope 7/2 Coral

NB: Mastermind 16/1 Various

Best Backed: American Hope 34% 7/2

Actual Results: SP v BSP -5%

14.30: Af Mathmoon 1.83/2.00 = +0.12, Combo:(Crowley/Al Muhairi)

15.05: Golden Wood 21.0/73.79 = +49.15, Combo: (Soumillon/Caullery), Unknown trainer caused the discrepancy...

15.40: Mizbah 9.0/8.80 = -0.59, Combo:(Hitchott/Watson)

16.15: Ertijaal 1.73/1.79 = +0.02, Combo:(Crowley/Al Raihe)

16.50: Le Bernardin 7.0/9.57 = +2.14, Combo: (O'Shea/Al Raihe)

17.25: Light The Lights 11.0/13.31 = +1.69, Combo: (Soumillon/De Kock)

18.00: Flash Fire 6.5/4.76 = -1.93, Combo: (Buick/Appleby) Godolphin...

Daily Discrepancy: +50.60 pts BSP v SP -5%

NAP Stats: 3/7(43%) +5.11, ROI: 73%

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

4th January 2017 @ 23:07

Market Test Analysis

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29th December 2016 @ 12:04

Meydan Analysis

Hey All

Back with analysis for Meydan tomorrow...

Following on from my last post i suggested certain combinations to follow looks the way to go, With these tracks covered we have only 1 meeting per week and its a long wait to the next, because of this, trends dont really come into play in the same way as in UK or Irish Racing....

Race 1: 14.30:

Cappezano(Godolphin) looks the one here, going purely by who he ran behind in his 1st race in the UK which was Rivet, It also said that he was impeccably bred for racing on dirt...

Bee jersey is Dobbs/Watson who is a newcomer costing $250k, also worth noting that same owners saddle bourbon gleam who was a cheap purchase its also Hitchott/Watson

To make things even tougher, Trainer S Seemar saddles 4 in the race and he seems a decent trainer, Not easy...

Race 2: 15.05:

This race has 2 godolphin in the shape of fly at dawn and van der decken, both bring really good form from the UK and would not be looking at much else in the race,, Going purely by the fact that fly at dawn is bred for dirt and has won at kempton aw in UK, he seems the one to be on, has also won at the trip whereas van der decken is unproven on aw type tracks, won at 6f, well beaten only start over 7f....

Watson/Hitchott combo are represented by one who is first time out, comes from a stud in Ireland which i dont know anything about..

Race 3: 15.40:

Somerset House is a newcomer for Godolphin in this, hard to gauge

Dangerous thought is Dobbs/Watson and ex john gosden altho form is not inspiring..

Mazeed is a 2yo up against elders, If Cappezano shows up well in race 1 he could well be the one here as was 3rd behind him lto at this track...

Race 4: 16.15:

Mathematics is Dobbs/Watson, won last time out...

Race is not colours dominated

As an outside selection here i would chance war spirit off a low weight quoted at 16/1 atm...

Race 5: 16.50:

Godolphin is represented by Comicas and has won at this track last february..

Dobbs/Watson have Desert Force who won last time out, same colours also have Winslow who is ex godolphin and is Hitchott/Watson combo

Race 6: 17.25:

Tricky race here, Watson is 3 handed with Dobbs/watson on active spirit, Hitchott/Watson on State law and down the bottom O'Neill/Watson have one for sheikh hamdan in Moosir who is also triple handed in the race...

Race 7: 18.00:

Debashi is Dobbs/Watson won lto, Bueller is Hitchott/Watson...

Ismail Mohammed has two in it for the same colours, with darkening looking the best of the two...

Race 8: 18.35:

Hello is dobbs/watson and sheeba is hitchott/watson both the same colours with the former clearly looking the pick off the 2...

Other things to note on the card would be a string of US imports representing Hayes/Selveratnam throughout the card, all the same colours, could be anything....

Actual Winners SP/BSP -5% Commission

14.30: Cappezano 3.0/3.01 = -0.10, Combo(O'Donoghue/Appleby=Godolphin)

15.05: Van Der Decken 5.5/7.4 = +1.58, Combo(O'Neill/Appleby=Godolphin)

15.40: Somerset House 4.50/5.27 = +0.56, Combo(O'Donoghue/Appleby=Godolphin)

16.15: Mathematics 3.00/2.99 = -0.10, Combo(Dobbs/Watson)

16.50: Desert Force 1.91/2.14 = +0.17, Combo(Dobbs/Watson)

17.25: North America 4.5/3.95 = -0.70, Combo(Mullen/Seemar)

18.00: Dehbashi 2.10/2.14 = -0.02, Combo(Dobbs/Watson)

18.35: Sheeba 51.0/64.27 = +10.11, Combo(Hitchott/Watson)

Total Overall Difference +39.68 BSP v SP

Apart from the last winner the discrepancy was not that significant today, actually dissappointing on the big price as well, The sheikhs must have been reading the last blog post...

Will add in Godolphin to the mix including their two runners from 15th, very last one will be jim crowley when he gets out there, so will track 4 altogether...

Backing Combos blindly now stands at this...

Dobbs/Watson: 6/13(46%) +16.73 pts, ROI: 129%

Watson: 8/25(32%) +96.17 pts, ROI: 385%

Godolphin: 3/7(43%) +8.05, ROI: 115%

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

28th December 2016 @ 22:49

Market Test Analysis

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21st December 2016 @ 21:40

Meydan Analysis

Hey All

Going to seperate Jebel Ali and Meydan, Too messy all in one...

Selections: 15/12/2016

No Selections

Meydan SP/BSP, Decimal format -5% Commission on BSP

Actual Winners

15.05: Cosmo Charlie 7.5/12.22 = +4.16, Combo (Dobbs/Watson)

15.40: Debashi 3.0/3.65 = +0.52, Combo (Dobbs/Watson)

16.15: Muhtaram 4.0/4.27 = +0.11, Combo(Jara/Al Mheiri)

16.50: Storm Belt 15.0/35.46 = +18.74, Combo(Jara/Watson)

17.25: My Catch 5.5/7.84 = +2.00, Combo(Dobbs/Watson)

18.00: Fitzgerald 34.0/38.53 = +2.65, Combo(Fresu/bin Harmash)

Difference = +28.18 BSP v SP

Pretty tough to see those results, considering how i mentioned the combo Dobbs/Watson and how there was a marked improvement in his yearly stats the last couple of years, I deleted those comments out of the last post but he went from say average 25/250 to 50/250 over the last couple of years, which means there must have been a cash injection into the stable as cant improve at that rate all of a sudden imo...

Anyways backing the combo blindly yesterday would have produced these Stats at BSP

Dobbs/Watson: 3/6(50%) +16.68, ROI: 278%

Backing the trainer Watson blindly would have produced these Stats at BSP

Watson: 4/11(36%) +46.01, ROI: 418%

Think its time for us all to pack our bags and head out to the sunshine until Cheltenham arrives...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

16th December 2016 @ 23:51

Battle Of The Codes

Hey All

As the title for "Battle Of The Codes" heated up, It was all about UK NH Stats...

Going into this period 56 Units ahead of their nearest pursuer, they put on a devastating display, producing Stats of 16/33(48%) +288.55 Units, ROI: 88%, and certainly had the bookies running for cover, with some firms putting them in as short as 1/3 for the title...

A spokesperson for William Hill stated that they had seen some unusually large wagers in the past couple of weeks, putting out rumours that a faction of TrendBet high roller members were behind the sting...

Trendbet rubbished these rumours, Stating, "My members and I are day to day players", This is UK NH Stats time of year and they put in the most volume and deserved to push ahead in the title race...

It was a dismal time for UK AW Stats as they had their worst period so far this season, producing Stats off 3/15(20%) -110.12 Units...

A spokesperson for the team stated that it was just one of those periods and they were waiting for the cold Winter nights to set in before they make their assault to get back in the title race...

It was a quiet period for Irish Stats blaming "Colours Domination", for their lack of volume, nonetheless they still managed to produce a good profit with Stats reading 3/7(43%) +56.25 Units, ROI: 80%...

Team spokesperson Fred Ekermann stated they were very much looking forward to the Christmas meetings and hoped to unleash some secret weapons during this period...

The standings for the title now look like this

UK NH Stats: 31/64(48%) +644.70 Units, ROI: 101%, Best Priced 4/11 BFSB/Coral, 1/3 Generally

Irish Stats: 19/37(51%) +234.15 Units, ROI: 63%, Best Priced 10/3 Black Type, 11/4 generally

UK AW Stats: 16/41(39%) +189.33 Units, ROI: 46%, Best Priced 13/2 Bet365/Paddy Power, 6/1 Generally

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

16th December 2016 @ 21:06

Raised Stake Stats

Hey All

Decided to keep a seperate record for raised stake bets, just for interest to keep track off it...

Here are the Stats on raised Stake bets within the Sample...

5/11/2016: Chester Street 1pt ew 6/1, Won 5/2, +72.00

10/11/2016: Elas Ruby 1.5pt win 15/8, Won 11/8, +28.13

7/12/2016: Gibbstown 0.75pts ew, Placed 14/1 +13.50

7/12/2016: Grange Hall 0.75 pts ew, Placed 11/1 +9.00

9/12/2016: Foundation Man 1.5pt win Won 3/1 +45.00

10/12/2016: Satanic Beat 0.75 pt ew, Won 13/2>7/2, +58.50

12/12/2016: Positively Dylan 1.5pt win 9/2, Lost -15.00

14/12/2016: Castletown Bridge 1.25pt win 7/s Lost -12.50

14/12/2016: Kentucky Star 1.25pt win, Won 8s>7s, +95.00, (R4 5p)

14/12/2016: Royal MacNab 1.25pt win, won 9/2>12/5, +56.25

14/12/2016: Theo 1.25pt win 5/2, lost, -12.50

14/12/2016: Mollies Gent 1.25pt win, lost, -12.50

26/12/2016: Midnight Escape 1.25pt win, 7/4>4/5, lost, -12.50

26/12/2016: Blairs Cove 1.25pt win 5/2, Lost, -12.50

01/01/2017: My Manikeneko 0.75pts ew 12/1, 2nd 8/1, +10.50

05/01/2017: Major Muscari 1pt ew 12/1, 3rd, +20.00

Return Rate Stats: 10/16(63%) +335.38 Units, ROI: 144%,   Note: Staked £232.50

15th December 2016 @ 08:56

Staking Difference

Hey All

So, when members join they are greeted with a welcome message and within it says Stakes range from 0.5pt EW-2pt Win....

On the platform there is Unit Staking ranging from 1-10 Units, I treat 10 Units as 1pt or £10 on a £1k Starting Bankroll, If you put 10 unit win on the platform at say 3/1 odds, You will get 30 Units back or £30...., Profit that is..

For Win betting purposes, 10 Units is the highest stake i can go on the platform, For example tomorrow, They are all 1.25pt Win in the Email but on the platform they are just 1 point win, So for example, I cant go 10 Units win and then 2.5 Unit win on the same horse as i dont want to duplicate the tips or else i wont be able to relay the stats correctly going forward...

With Each Way Unit Staking, I can go Maximum 10 Units EW or 1pt EW on the platform, which would be the max i would advise...

The profit you see on the Tipstrr platform is pretty much to Average Stake £10, around £10.10 at the moment....

Over 1k bets, with my staking you would not be looking at much more than a 15% total increase over the period...

So Average Stake £10 becomes £11.50 over the period, £20 becomes £23 and so on....

For Win betting, i consider a raised stake to be between 1.25pts-2pts

For Each Way i consider a raised stake 0.75pts ew-1pt ew...

Got a few questions about this so hopefully that can clear things up a bit...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

13th December 2016 @ 19:03

From Zero To Here

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12th December 2016 @ 23:45

Jebel Ali Test

Hey All

Going to do an SP v BSP Comparison on these just to see how it fares out...

This test can be done both ways...

(A) Just by the results out there

(B) Me trying to pick them myself...

 Notes:

(A) Heavily Colours dominated along with Trainer dominated per race...

(B) Jockeys- Dobbs, Mullen, O'Donoghue

(C) Trainers: D Watson, S Seemarr, Al Meiheiri(Jebel Ali)

(D) Colours- Yellow with three dots in centre, looks main colours for trainer Doug Watson, watch for 2-3x per race with dobbs not riding for outsider price purposes

Selections: 09/12/2016

Jebel Ali - SP/BSP, Will do in decimal format - 5% Comission on BSP

10.15: Skygazer 1st 7.0/8.4 = +1.03 Diff

10.45: Diwaan 2nd 3.0/3.71

11.15: Pupil- U/P-No Data outside top 4

11.45: Ordinal(x) 1st 3.0/3.67 = +0.54 Diff

12.15: Tadarrok 3rd 6.5/5.53(Very Overbet)

12.45: Pictograph(x) 2nd 3.0/3.21(Overbet as well)

Overall Totals: 2/6(33%) +5.57 pts @BSP, ROI: 93%

Place Totals: 5/6(83%) No Price Data(Booo)

Overall Winner Difference +1.57 Pts

Actual Winners

10.15: Skygazer 7.0/8.4 = +1.03

10.45: Brabbham 6.5/6.81 = +0.02

11.15: Stunned 9.0/13.04 = +3.44

11.45: Ordinal 3.0/3.67 = +0.54

12.15: Secret Ambition 3.0/4.96 = +1.76

12.45: Hello 3.0/3.1 -0.00

Difference = +6.79 BSP v SP

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

8th December 2016 @ 23:04

BSP Comparison

Hey All

So, have been getting a lot of questions from people who have trouble being restricted from various bookmakers and the like, so decided to do a BSP comparison and see whether it was profitable or not...

I done a Win bet only scenario and these were the returns -5% Commission paid...

41/113(36%) +41.49 Pts, ROI: 37%, That is to £10 level stakes...

Did not think it would come back as good as that, considering i have not really had any big priced wins, 10.xx has been the biggest within the sample so far....

Overall place market Strike Rate is circa 64-65% so far, so i guess it makes a profit at that Rate, I may do the stats on it for next blog...

At BOG again just doing Win Bets only with everything being backed at 1 pt straight win with no each way, the results came back like this

41/113(36%) +83.09 Pts, ROI: 74%, That is to £10 level stakes, so pretty much the same so good to know...

So that is that, We are getting half the ROI at BSP so far but its not terrible as you can raise your stakes there without being told where to go if winning..., This can also further be increased by exchange play where u can potentially further add to your BSP profit...

Just the 1 guy at Lingfield tomorrow to try and get back on track....

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

4th December 2016 @ 21:32

3 Day Review

Hey All

Glad to get a couple of winning days for you after a bad performance on Saturday..

Gotta push forward now and keep solid, Xmas is coming...

So onto the guys that ran

We kicked off the day with Apple's Jade in the fighting fifth, ran a cracking race considering she definately was not 100% fit, Could see this from compusure of jockey during race, Fair enough she got hampered which possibly hindered her chances of the win in the latter stages, However, attidude to fight back on the run in suggests she could be a good one next time out if the price is right..., Unfortunately went down by a nose in the end, In hindsight, If she told a couple of lies before the race we may have had a different result....

After that defeat i instantly wrote off the day as i knew what lied ahead...

Richard Fahey sent the one to Doncaster in the shape of Arakhan, complete no show there left us down 2 points on the day...

With the last race at Tramore being abandoned, we were left with Desert Mark at odds of 6/1 for a potential +4 point day, Was backed into 7/2 before the off but was not good enough on the day and finished 3rd and with that we were 3 points down...

Going into Sunday we had 2 guys to get back on track..

We kicked off the day with El Massivo, stayed pretty stagnant in the market throughout, ran a decent race considering recent form but unfortunately found one to good on the day..

With that, Social Media reported the Critics were out in force with comments such as "The demise of Trendbet", "He's Finished" and "It was just a lucky run"...

However, my members and I had other ideas in the shape of Rocklander, I had mentioned the previous day that he could well be better than mark even after a 10lb rise, Travelled with the same zest as he did in his previous race he hung tough at the business end for a deserved success, Very hard to pass Adrian Heskin on the runin, He did not get the job with Tom George for nothing, Used to ride a lot for "The Yellow colours", Barry Connell back in Ireland and he is a very good pro.., We got on early doors @ 9/2 he was hammered into 7/4f so a lot of Value was received, And with that the Critics were silenced...

Going into Monday's phase of play we had 2 guys to turn a profit...

Kicking off with Tambura in the first, had won the race last year, I had noticed the jockey, which i knew little about, had pulled off a couple of coups on Saturday, Today it seemed our guy was out to win making all and sticking to his guns to just get there for us, For some reason i felt he would hold on here and fair play to him, Jockeys name is Zack Baker has a claim off 7lb and i suspect he may be the go to guy atm, Watch out for him, looks good... Got on early doors @ 3/1, he returned 9/4 and again value was received...

No show from Tavener in the lucky last left us 2 points up on the day, so still going the right way....

Will be back on Thursday nyte for the next few guys...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

28th November 2016 @ 20:25

Irish Stats

Hey All

Been some run of it lately, long may it last...

The week ended up with a Win Return Rate of 8/16(50%) +248.4 Units, Bringing with it an ROI of 155%

7 of those returns were winners, and finished off the 31 day period with an actual Win Strike Rate off 37/94(39%)

During that period the most downside experienced was 5 points...

Will get straight into the Irish Stats within the sample...

Win Return Rate comes in at 16/30(53%) +177.9 Units, ROI: 59%

Top track is varying, not enough of a sample of one, Clonmel is 3/3(100%) +65 Units, ROI: 217%

The leaderboard now looks like this for the "Battle Of The Codes", for the rest of the season

Irish Stats: 16/30(53%) +177.9 Units, ROI: 59%

UK NH Stats: 15/31(48%) +356.40 Units, ROI: 117%, Note: Staked £305

UK AW Stats: 13/26(50%) +299.45, ROI: 111%, Note: Staked £270

The remainder of bets were from late season UK flat turf and one from the Breeders cup and are left out..

So, we have a higher strike rate in Ireland but a lot less profit, this is mainly due to winning returns off E/W bets...

In general i prefer to play Win only as you will make a lot more profit, but in saying that, sometimes you need the E/W plays to steady the ship..

I will definately revisit these stats at around 250 bets, just to see how things are going along...

FYI: Chelmsford City is the top dog now showing 9/16(56%) +312.20 Units, ROI: 184%, Note: Staked £170...

For next weeks blog posts i will revert back to "The horses that ran", as its good for memory...

4 guys tomorrow on a tricky day, hopefully find something somewhere to keep ahead of the game..

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

25th November 2016 @ 21:24

UK NH Stats

Hey All

So flying along nicely at the moment, Feel good about the game and am excited to play every day, This is always a good thing as its the "Mental Game" that counts as much as anything else...

So, short and sweet tonyte, and will get straight into the Stats...

UK NH Stats

Win Return Rate coming in @ 14/29(48%) +301.40, ROI: 104%

Top track played @ so far is coming in as Chepstow with a Win Return Rate coming in @ 5/8(62.5%) +85.30, ROI: 107%

Whilst these are only small samples it is important to be aware of them "for competitive purposes" going forward...

Will be back later in the week with Irish Stats and we will see where we are at then with everything...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

22nd November 2016 @ 19:53

Weekend Review

Hey All

So has been a great few days with our last 8 runners stats reading 11122112..

Flying along nicely, Win Strike Rate Stats stand @ 31/83(37%)...

My record of 30 winners in a 31 day period has been beaten by 6 days, It was 30/97(31%) at that time, So gotta grind it out now upto and including the 24th and see can i find a few more guys to keep the show on the road...

Always good to be competitive with yourself so you can have something to aim for in the future..

If you had asked me 6 months ago i would have said id be happy to eek out a small profit during this period...

I suppose i dont know whether to say im lucky or unlucky that im pretty much an all rounder, meaning i can play all the different codes just as well as each other, I would say im strongest in Irish Racing both in flat turf or NH, Seem to be getting some sort of handle on the AW in the UK, There are certain tracks i prefer to play over others, Find Kempton and Newcastle tough and try and stay away as much as possible, My weakest would be UK NH, But im interested to see can i at least reach middle ground with it this season...

So, sometimes when you are looking at results it is important to not take them at face value, There are a lot of answers within the results or data whichever you like to call it, so for this blog post and the next 2 i will go through the stats within the sample from each code...

Going to kick off with the AW in the UK and see how things are there

Returns coming in with a Win Return Rate off 10/21(48%) +199.05 Units, There was one stake within that sample that was max 10 each way units so the actual ROI here comes in @ 90.48%

Digging a little deeper Chelmsford City has been where all the profits have came from with returns coming in @ 6/12(50%) +197.80 Units, There was 130 Units staked there so far, so the Actual ROI here is coming in @ 152.15%...

Going into tomorrow we have 2 selections there so i dont know whether its a good thing or a bad thing thus far

We have odds of 6/1 and 11/2 both EW Plays, We have a 50% Return strike rate there so looking at it in that sense we have good odds here, Obviously its a tiny sample but if looked at in this way its more fun than watching the horse run, Makes it easier in a sense off well "Thats our Stats there", and Stats are Stats.....

So pressure is on tomorrow @ Chelmsford to maintain win rate there :), also have one guy @ ludlow...

Have a Good One

TrendBetPro

 

 

20th November 2016 @ 20:49

Friday Review

Hey All

So there were so no selections today so will do a review of thursdays guys for the data archives....

So we kicked off the day with Demographic, Was emma lavelle's only runner at the meeting, had ran well well on his previous start and was back to a previous winning mark, had to hang tough at the business end but did so for a gutsy win, We got on early doors @ 7/2, marked backed him into 15/8f and with that the day was covered...

20 minutes later our guy Sea Light took his chance, I had mentioned that @ the Galway festival there was a huge gamble on him under Davy Russell where he left him too far back and just did not get there that day, I felt given the chance again and just back from suspension that he had to do the bizz today for connections and he duly obliged in a pretty tough race, again got on early 7/2 on the patform, returned 5/2f and things were good..

We had to wait a few hours for our final guy Curzon Line, At the beginning off ATR evening coverage Matt Chapman had mentioned tonight could be a good night for Joe Fanning, With him winning 2 out of the first 4 races i obviously felt we were on the wrong one in a Jockey stats sense, however from a wide draw in stall 13, Fanning gave him a superb ride getting to the front around 3f out, This was the move i had in my head prior to the race that could win us the race, Once in front coming round the final bend the race was over as he sluiced in with no dangers, got on early doors @ 6/1, he returned 7/2,, and that was that, 3/3 happy days...

So 5 guys tomorrow with varying chances, Its Saturday tho and for me its one of the tougher days to pick winners, We will see what happens....

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

18th November 2016 @ 20:29

Midweek Review

 Hey All

So, Its just been one of those periods where its been hard to find winners, Two close seconds at 10/1 and 6/1 decided the fate of being in profit or break even in the past few days, at the end of the day its just small margins...

However in saying that, even if 1 of those guys had won i know myself that my own form as a tipster has slipped, Why?, 1 simple reason, "Looking at form", and trying to be a hero in that sense...

I have been a tipster for quite a while now and one important thing i have learned is that for the most part, form in horseracing is complete and utter bs and a sure fire way for both tipsters and punters alike to go broke rapidly.., Whilst this not may be quite true for Top grade racing, it is for everything else...

If you are to follow the game purely looking at form angles you will get slaughtered by the bookies, 100% i promise you that...

Think about it, If all form held true, anybody that has any interest in horse racing would never bother to work for a living as it would be there for all to see and life would be great, You would get up in the morning, find a horse with great form priced up @ 5/1 and just for good measure you look over at the comments section that the Media guy writes and he backs up your findings, "He obviously must be right", So now your doubly confident and go place your bet pretty much waiting to collect your returns, On top of that you tell family and friends to go have a few quid on, "This one looks good", Sure enough the horse comes nowhere and leaves you feeling a ryte mug..

I was guilty of this a couple of days ago where i came across this particular horse where "everything looked good", Form of the previous race stacked up, multiple winners came out of it, 1 winning by half the track next time out who beat us by 1l that day, It was the trainers only horse at the meeting, The jockeys only ride albeit a "Top Jockey", who on a normal race day would ride 4-5 races, They had been cleaning up in this particular type race within the past few weeks and so on, I thought it was a surefire winner, I was very wrong, Around half way through the race i could see the jockey pushing at the horse and at that time i switched the race off knowing there was no miracle coming...

The point of all this is, dont get engrossed in form as its just not worth it, Racing has so many variables attached to it with the form angle just one off many but probably the most detrimental of most...

I came across an article on twitter a few days ago, for me its the one of the best ever written, If you have time take a look at it, Its very good...

http://racing-social.com/10-principles-betting-horse-racing/

So there are 3 guys tomorrow, 1 @ Wincanton, 1 @ Clonmel and 1 @ Chelmsford city in the evening...

Time for a couple of guys to strike...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

16th November 2016 @ 21:15

Some Stats

Hey All

So, just 2 winners from 9 bets the last 2 days, lot of gambles foiled, Saturdays are tough and with the month it is and the ground changing will just have to tough it out and hopefully find a couple of good ones to keep our head above water...

Looking at our Win Rate Stats, We now have had 25 winners from 65 Selections representing Stats of 25/65(38%), Rounded down, Not bad going playing at Average Odds of 5.76..., We now know that when we reach 100 bets we are guaranteed a 25% Win Strike Rate, but we obviously want to smash that and have something to aim for come the next 100 bets...

Within those 65 bets our Average Stake has been £10.08, With our Average profit per bet standing at £7.28...

Our Longest Losing Sequence has been 5 which equals our Longest Winning Sequence of 5 which is a personal record for me, Ive had 4 in a row quite a few times but never 5, Odds obtained in that sequence were 6/4, 9/2, 7/4, 7/2 and 6/1, good times....

Obviously obtaining Value is the key to beating the game, There is no point in backing a 2/1 shot that was 5/1, say 2 hours previously, Regardless of whether he wins or not its a losing play in the long run, however its not the be all and end all as your Strike Rate is just as important as it helps with Past, Present and Future analysis...

Consider this, Say you have a sample of 500 bets and your Win Strike Rate is say 25%, There is not much point in backing horses that are lower than 3/1 in general consistently as this is a losing play as your Win Rate is what it is, In saying that its not exclusive, and there is certainly times when say a horse is priced at 5/2 and you think it should be a 6/4 shot and the SP reflects that then these guys should obviously be played as its profitable..

Going to leave a table here which reflects losing runs within your Strike Rate, Its amazing how it works as its spot on and have encountered it in sample sizes in the past, Definately a good way to think mindset wise when things go against you from time to time, Also good for your mental game as that is probably the most important of the lot...

http://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/875

Just the 1 guy tomorrow @ Navan

Have a good weekend

TrendBetPro

 

12th November 2016 @ 20:32

Thursday Review

Hey All

So we kicked off the day with Angus Glens in the 13.15 @ Towcester, Completely gave a no show, Considering the manner in which he won 6 days previously i found it strange with the bad show today...

Onto the 13.55 @ Southwell our selection I'll be good was another who gave a no show, Considering the stable just sent the one there and had a 7lb claimer on board i expected a better performance..

Onto the 17.55 @ Chelmsford City, We had Ninety Years young trying to turn the tide, We got on early @ 3/1 and the market hammered him into 6/4, Not sure what the market was thinking here as there was no way he should have been that short, I knew we were cooked early in the race as in my mind i felt the best chance he had to win the race was to try and go from the front and try and see it out, It made sense for him to do this considering the drop in trip and the 6lb penalty he carried going into the race in my opinion...

So down to the lucky last we had Elas Ruby to save the day, With the day going so bad I had no choice but to call on the services of "The Powers That Be", with having a friend who used to go out with a girl called Ela and his daughters name being Ruby, Thankfully forces were at work here and Our Guy managed to get his head in front when it mattered, Advised 1.5pt win to members @ 15/8, He traded for a time @ 9/4 this morning, eventually coming back @ 11/8...

3 guys online for tomorrow, 2 @ Cheltenham and 1 @ Dundalk in the evening....

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

10th November 2016 @ 22:26

Midweek Review

Hey All

Good to be back after a couple days off, Always needed...

Was good to see Donald Trump win The US Election, If you were reading the blog you may have seen i had a touch on him @ 9/2 earlier in the week, Besides that i was glad to see him win, In a social media aspect in terms of likes and retweets on his page versus Hilary's, He should have been the 1/3 Favourite,,, If you look at it in that sense in terms of a popularity vote....

So, with no selections the last two days, Will revert back to Mondays guys and relive both the pain and ecstacy...

The days racing in Ireland kicked off with Barry Geraghty bagging the first 3 winners on the card, This did not bode well for our selection Billy de kid and sure enough he finished just outside the money, With geraghty winning the next it certainly left me feeling red faced and it had the potential of being "One of those days"..

This held true going into the next with Gleann N Dochais giving a no show leaving us 2 points down with 2 to go...

Confidence waned even more when our jockey for our next selection Delayed Eloquence won the previous race and sure enough he ran the same type of race as he had ran previous coming on the scene late and finished just outside the money in 5th..

Down to the lucky last we had Herons Heir who pretty much stayed stagnant in the market all day, Ran a very good race, looked like he had a chance a few out and Bridget Andrews sent him to the front to win his race seeing it out well and landing the odds for us returning @ 7/1 which was well received on my end and with that we ended up with a +4pt win for the day or a +8pt swing, as the day was headed for disaster, It's never easy...

4 guys online for tomorrow, 1 each from Towcester and Southwell, and 2 from Chelmsford City later in the evening..

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

9th November 2016 @ 19:41

Weekend Review

Hey All

So on a weekend in Ireland where Gigginstown and Gordon Elliot stole the show, Saw the latter named Stamp his Authority in his quest for champion trainer on these shores, Elliot is in beast mode at the moment with 13 winners in the last 4 days from 39 entries, He now stands at 91 winners for the season, 34 ahead of his nearest pursuer Champion trainer Willie Mullins..

http://www.goracing.ie/racing-statistics/trainers/leading-trainers/

In Elliot's previous six seasons his Average Win Rate was 71 per season, Considering it's only November this is class act stuff and is a certainty to smash last years record of 123, If Gordon Elliot was an Online poker player i would imagine he would be a mass multitabler as he is a serious grinder on the racing circuit and there is no signs of him slowing down, Because of factors such as Gigginstown, and Joseph O Brien/JP McManus association entering the game this season alongside all the other competitive Trainers/Owners etc i feel that it would be some feat for Willie Mullins to catch Elliot even at this early stage, Will make for great viewing...

Over in the UK saw Paul Nicholls move 13 ahead of his nearest pursuer Neil Mullholland after a blistering October which saw him run @ 26/67(39%), was a statement of intent from the champion trainer,, All in all makes for a great season on both sides of the shore and with 3 day Open Festival @ Cheltenham this weekend the season is now in full swing....

http://www.skysports.ie/racing/statistics/jump-trainers/season

Good two days for the service with 108 units profit from 6 selections, With Win Strike Rate stats standing at 21/48(44%) this has been my best period ever Strike Rate Wise for that sample size, Here's to the next 50....

4 Selections online for tomorrow, 2 from Fairyhouse and 1 each from kempton and Carlisle

All the best

TrendBetPro

6th November 2016 @ 22:48

Friday Review

Hey all

Was very sad to hear the news on Freddy Tylicki today, My thoughts go out to both him and his family and i wish them the best of luck for the future..

It certainly puts life into perspective that things we take for granted such as being able to get up in the morning and go for a walk off our own accord and all the general things in life we do can be comprised by something that is totally against the odds of happening in life, Unfortunately Freddy succumbed to the longshot when his career was hitting a high...

It was great to see all the racing community rallying behind him and his family on twitter as you could see it was genuinely from the heart..,, The majority of the general public would look at horse racing as Gambling, This is not the case, as its a people sport with characters involved that have a genuine love for horses, and being human all the teams involved including Trainers,Jockeys, Owners and all involved behind the scenes  have a will to win just like we all do in any aspect in life..., Thats where the odds come in, depicting human and horse behaviour to a certain extent...

So, Onto todays kiddos...

We kicked off the day with Monbeg Notorious in the first @ Down Royal, Very lucky to win the race here as Barry Geraghty was cruising all way around on The Storyteller, 100% there was no need for Geraghty to make a push @ the last fence as he had our measure for sure, Easy name to remember, watch out for him, i certainly will, Take the win for the times it goes against us and move on...

Next up was "That Guy", Joey Sasa, I was on him last Sunday and Nina Carberry never moved a muscle the whole way around, Turned out quickly in a better race he pretty much done the same thing and won like a boss for the Noel Meade yard, got on early doors @ 9/2 and won @ 3s

Last up was Dougan, Sent over from the UK by David Evans for a €14k race, had been running very well in the Uk prior to this, however had stand out win-rate stats on AW surfaces in general and duly made it 6/9 today which is class act stuff so hats off to all involved there...

Very good racing tomorrow all around and should be an interesting day...

We have 4 selections @ Chelmsford City tomorrow evening and 1 in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint in Santa Anita with analysis now online..

Will be back Sunday evening with Weekend analysis.....

Have a nice weekend

TrendBetPro

 

5th November 2016 @ 00:29

Thursday Review

Hey All

Poor day Strike Rate wise and not good enough, 1.5pt loss on the day not too bad, but bounce back called for..

Not a lot too say on selections, All 5 losers heavily gambled and our selection that heavily drifts wins pretty much sums up the day...

Anyways not to worry, Will come back stronger...

Three selections tomorrow, 2 @ Down Royal and 1 @ Dundalk, Race meet @ Down Royal is a good card tomorrow as lots of good horses out and will make for good viewing...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

 

3rd November 2016 @ 19:48

Wednesday Review

Hey All

Good day today with returns coming from all 4 selections...

A lot of horses were pulled out of the Races Tom George ran his guys in today with the state of the ground being the excuse, I dont accept that one bit as all jockeys reported the ground to be fine, Without saying too much i see this as very unfair on punters who were on the early odds today as it was one of those days where his horses looked very good, Will it be investigated any further?, Not in this lifetime.....

So we kicked off with Lake Chapala in the first, refused to race when last seen 3 days ago at huntingdon, No show before that, However it costs money to transport horses and he looked good to me in a weakish field, winner alright..

Next up was Rocklander, He was a standout bet today and won really well..., One to keep an eye on for sure...

Some are lucky ran a good race, clear of the rest but unfortunately found one to good on the day...

There was a buzz going around for Sumkindofking yesterday evening, Put in as high as 9/2 early doors i knew well he should have been fav, OFC the initial fav was pulled out to rob the punters who will have been hit hard with r4 today, What can you do...

6 selections online for tomorrow, 3 @ Thurles and 3 @ Chelmsford City..., hopefully find a couple of winners to keep the good run up..

All the best

TrendBetPro

 

2nd November 2016 @ 20:57

Daily Review

Hey All

On a day marred by a cruel fall at Kempton Park where both Freddie Tylicki and Jim Crowley were taken to the Spinal Unit hospital, The former by Air ambulance, left me feeling worried, Lets hope they both are ok, At least they were conscious...

With Kempton being abandoned it left us with 2 selections

First up was Simply Me, Traded for a very short time at 5/1 early doors before being levelled into 3/1, Came back @ 5/2f unfortunately going down by a neck to the obvious danger Encore Moi, Money returned..

Moulin Rouge ran a stinker, was clearly wound up to win the other day and in hindsight mark probably a bit high now for his ability..

Ended up just shy of €200 profit for the week at level stakes With a Return Strike Rate of 58%, Bringing with it an 83% ROI from 24 Selections...

5 selections tomorrow at fairly big prices, hopefully will get lucky somewhere along the line...

All the best

TrendBetPro
 

31st October 2016 @ 20:12

Saturday Review

Hey all

Nice day today with 2/3 winners for a 42 unit profit so all is good..

Pipes of Peace was first up and looked a good ew price at 11/1, he was duly backed into to 9/2 before the off but dissappointed finishing just outside the money in 4th..

Elizabeth Browning was up next, backed from 9/2 into 3/1 the step up in trip suited and she won well, looking like a nice horse in the process..

Dandy Nicholls sent Sovereign Debt over from the UK, Backed from as high as 11/4 into 15/8 he won very impressively and looked a good bet today..

Just the one selection tomorrow @ Galway, Hopefully he will be in the mix @ the business end..

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

29th October 2016 @ 20:26

Friday Review

Hey All

Today was one of those days where very small margins decided the outcome, whilst it was our first losing day it was not so bad, Stats stand 3-1 in our favour Winning versus losing days atm...

We kicked off the day with Le Prezien who was hammered from 11/4>11/8 fav but just found one too good on the day and went down by 1/2 length, Rather than dwell on the horse being beat the positives were he was not beat that far and we got by far and away the best odds which makes the difference in the long run when they win..

Sufoof was just not quite good enough today going down in 3rd today beaten just over 1/2 length, I felt he was now at a low enough mark to win today and i will certainly be keeping an eye out for him in due course

My main fancy of the day Massif Central went down by a neck, I think dropped back in trip next time out may see him get his head in front so is another on my radar for the future, Got 3/1 early doors and he was hammered into 13/8f, 2 gambles foiled, what can you do....

Last of the day was an outsider in the shape of Mr Ormsby who was a 14/1 chance in a 15 horse race, thankfully he ran a good race getting 3rd to get some much needed returns...

Positives to take from today was my 4 selections were beat 2 and a quarter lengths in total which leads me to believe my form is not dropping yet..

On a lighter note i suspect there will be a few quid for Donald Trump after todays revelations about hilary clinton, Media quote suggested "Whilst she faced no charges, she was very careless in her actions in regard to security of the country", As im writing this as i always write straight off the bat he is now trading @ Average price 11/4 and he was best priced 9/2 lastnyte as i had a look and decided to put 10 euro on him as i like the depiction of him in the media regardless of the things he has said, I think with the progression of the Internet opens up the potential for people to vote who may never have voted before and may be off the thinking we have nothing to lose here, very similiar to Brexit as sick off the bs..., I hope he wins for the craic...

3 selections tomorrow @ Leopardstown, Very good card there and should make for entertaining viewing...

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

28th October 2016 @ 20:36

Daily Review

Hi All

So another good day in the bag with 3 winners and a place from 6 selections...

The days proceedings started out with Foxtail Hill in the 2.50, Ran an ok race without really ever threatening the principals, was backed into 6/4 fav from early doors 5/2 but finished up in 3rd..

Kilkishen was one i fancied to run a decent race @ Clonmel in the 3.50, Got on early @ 10s, There was market support for him but just did not have it  the business end but stayed on gallantly for a place and was happy enough with the performance..

I gave a good write up for Big Casino and he duly obliged, Looked good in this particular race, We got on @ 7/4 and the market backed him into 11/8 and he won handy enough...

Earls fort was a selection i gave a couple of days ago and was another i quietly fancied, He was very impressive that day and i felt a repeat of that performance would see him home and he won nicely, travelling the best of all a long way out, he hung tough at the business end and done the business..

Cloudy Morning was another i gave good reasoning for to win today, His love of the track and the fact that going through his previous data suggested the stable may be trying when turned out quickly seen him home today, Won really well..

Got tricked by money in my pocket being dropped significantly in class, I overlooked the step up in trip and had the feeling in the morning that i had made a mistake in selecting him and sure enough he ran a stinker.., The lesson learned from that bet is, If it looks too good to be true it probably is not...

So, Flying start so far, Have got returns from 9/13 selections but its early days...

Have 5 selections today including a couple i fancy @ Dundalk altho its one of the harder tracks to win at, for me anyway, I compare it to Kempton(AW) in the Uk which is another i find tough to get a handle on..

All the best

TrendBetPro

28th October 2016 @ 10:39

Daily Review

Hi All

Another solid day today with Banditry hacking up advised @ 7/2 from advised 7/1 early doors, This was a standout bet today if horse took to the surface and boy he did...

Our second selection London Prize hacked up as well, We got 2/1 early doors and he was hammered into 5/4 coming from last to first in a matter of strides and won easy..

Dharoos was dissappointing in the lucky last, We got on early @ 11/4 and he was backed into 6/4 but was not at the races today finishing 4th...

"The early odds catches the worm"....

There are 6 selections available tomorrow with varying chances including one at a decent price, so hopefully we can continue the good run

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

26th October 2016 @ 18:54

Day 1 Review

Hi All

Day 1 kicked off with Ballesteros doing the business in the 2.20, Early doors he was priced up @ 9/2 with Bet 365 and that to me was either a mistake or the firm being generous, he was duly cut into 3s in a short space of time, With Fahey winning the first two races at the track confidence was waning a little but he duly obliged at 5/2f and value was landed along with the win..

Ice Konig was up next and showed up in the early exchanges but when push came to shove he found little and finished out of the money...

LooksNowtLikeBrian hacked up in the next, he hit the front just before 3 out and surged clear, he was travelling at possibly too much speed and made a couple of unnerving jumps close to the business end but the champion Jockey was on board and does not make stupid mistakes and settled him nicely into the last for an easy success, Got 13/8 early doors when looking for 7/4 but decided to let it run, He was trading as high as 9/4 in places on the morning off the race which left me pondering should i go in again but left it alone, Returned 11/8 in the end...

Earls fort rounded off the day in style with a facile success in the last, In his previous race he finished second to looksnowtlikebrian and the market latched on to the fact hammering him into 6/5f, We got on @ 5/2 early doors altho i possibly went into the market slightly early and he traded  11/4 in places but a win is a win and again a lot of value was received...

I have 3 selections today and all 3 have shortened drastically in price so hopefully they will give their running to market expectancy...

Will be back tomorrow with analysis..

Have a good one

TrendBetPro

26th October 2016 @ 10:53

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Results Summary

Period: Sport:
Results
  • ROI: 31.65%
  • Profit: 1468.5
  • Tips: 503
  • Win: 32%
  • Average Odds: 6.20

Profit/Loss

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