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About ZGroup

The ZGroup

Ron (Carnegie, PA, USA, aka "The Don", Computer Science - our IT geek - obviously)
Ethan (Perth, AUS, aka "Saul", MIT - our Math guy - obviously)
Dawie (Johannesburg, RSA, aka "The Greek interpreter" - former odds compiler for The Greek - obviously)
Ritchie (San Francisco, CA, USA, used to play damn good basketball before becoming a Pimp, knows his shit - obviously)
Jason (Detroit, MI, USA, aka "the digger", digs through our data - obviously)

Dirty helpers (all the rest - helpful people - from bookie runners to LV tix scouts, all the noob's out there, various other little dirty helpers with inside information, all of them very helpful for what we do - all together - obviously...)

Our purpose...

We're former members of a betting group/board, which explains our group name. We came together to make money betting sports - obviously. We don't give a shit about public opinion(s), ZGroup never has and never will - be riding the wave of the majority - Word!

We have fading the public down to a science, well, actually - we have it down to math. We're numbers guys and we've developed a unique way of examining betting trends and making money, betting sports. We bet numbers, data & trends. We don't care about liking a play or a team - we just care winning our ma-fkn bets we place - we bet only when we find an edge - obviously...

No guarantees, no locks nor fixes and anything like that...

Good sports handicappers hit around 55% of their premium picks over the long term, which is more than good enough to make you a lot of money. That means that even guys who are making a lot of money in this business are losing 45% of their wagers. The good news is that there is an easy way to minimize your losses. The short answer is to simply open an account with a reduced-juice sportsbook like 5Dimes. Sign up for couple bookies and minimize your losses. Check every bet and choose the best (see also line shopping).

Example;
Here's some math to back up what we are talking about:

The great handicapper. He is 613-515 (54.3%) in college basketball. 

If you bet $110 to win $100 (standard juice is -110) on every game he has released you would be up $4,650. (613 wins at $100 = 61,300 - 515 losses at -$110 = 56,650).

However, if you had been taking advantage of the -105 juice at 5 Dimes you would have lost only $54,075 (-105 * 515). You would be up $7,225! That's $2,575 you would have saved, a 65% increase in profits! Who wouldn't welcome that?!

Shopping - we mean line shopping - obviously...

Line shopping is crucial and an over-looked aspect by 95% of the betting public. Find a different book whenever possible. If your Mom runs a bookie service, place your bet @ MOM and tell her to give you FKN best possible odds. There is a huge edge for the bettor that seeks out their side's best available number and it's not all that difficult of a task to accomplish. We'll use only widely available books with high limits. US citizens use friendly shops (The Greek, Bovada, Bookmaker, 5Dimes whatever), Australians, Africans, Asians use their own, Europeans should stick to (Pinnacle, SBO) and so on and so forth. We wont tell you which book you have to use - shop around - do your FKN homework! As for us, we will use Pinnacle as our first and choice and SBObet & 5Dimes for lines which aren't available at Pinnacle.

"There is no such thing as a guaranteed pick. That's not how the universe works. We don't sell fixes or locks or whatever - EVER!"

Our Style...

We're sharp bettors - the same are serious about making money on the endeavor. Most people are noob's - obviously. God bless'em, we wouldn't exist without the data they provide. We get our numbers from a variety of pay data services & public websites that post betting and trend information. Each data source with it's own nuances, limitations and value. Our dirty helpers do the rest, by scouting, monitoring the betting numbers across no less than a dozen shops, from books like the MGM Grand & Las Vegas Hilton, to online shops like Bovada and The Greek.

Side effects of the globalization we all live in...

We're spread across the globe, from Australia, to South Africa and the States (East to West). We release our US sports (only) plays from around 10 am Eastern (Atlantic City, NYC = UTC -05:00) that's 7 am Pacific for our secretary, respectively until 5 pm Pacific time (Las fucking Vegas, Alcatraz = UTC-08:00) latest. But as close to game time as possible. Europeans have to stay up late (approx. 02:00 CET/+01:00 GMT latest) - obviously. We don't bet shitty opening lines - we need the data to develop itself before we decide to stick our neck(s) out to release a play.

We don't talk much - our numbers talk. Don't ask us about betting fundamentals, money management strategies or anything else you can find out by yourself - FKN Google for IT!

Wager instructions & staking

No play in the history of the world has ever been worth more than Double our ZGroup Wager Amount (ZWA). Successful sports investing is as much about protecting your stack as it is building it. Investing sports is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. There is no such thing as a “lock,” or a “guaranteed pick.” That’s not how the universe works. Everything we give is 1, 2 or 3 x’s ZGroup & followers’ Wager Amount (ZWA). Our BAZINGA* Pick of the Week is TRIPLE units. We've done our homework for any of those selections, no if's no but's, just a difference in value. Our numbers, our leans, our daily work generate a wager. As a result of that strategy we can't tell you the exact amount of wagers/day or month. It obviously depends on the sports/lines available to wager.

  • SNGL 1 x’s ZWA (flat, 4 to 1 dogs to faves)

The daily gambler needs a bankroll, money committed to a long-term, successful investing strategy—whether your game is sports investing, poker, blackjack, etc. To properly get down on The ZGroup’s style, followers/future members should take their available sports investing bankroll and divide that to establish a ZWA.

  • DBL 2 x’s ZWA (high value investments)

DBL* picks are always DBL our ZGroup Wager Amount, obviously.

  • BAZINGA 3 x’s ZWA (Big Bang Theory investments, play of the week)

TRPL* picks represent our play of the week. BAZINGA* TRPL: ZGroup’s Algorithm & Style Pick of the Week. Gotta call our Pick of the Week something—we call ours BAZINGA*. We give our favorite Style Fit/top-rated play of the day BAZINGA* status. We don’t necessarily give a BAZINGA* every week, but most weeks we do. We look to be in the range of 40-48 BAZINGA* picks per year.

Win $100. Our HPD is based on the win $100 model. If we’re giving a SNGL +130 Dog—that’s a SNGL ZWA x’s 1.30. If we’re playing a SNGL -190 Long-Odds Fave—that’s risk 1.90 to win 1 x’s ZWA.

Most of our followers follow our plays exactly. A few of our followers only hammer down on our DBL's*—some of them get down only on our BAZINGA* certified 60% for 2013, 166/269. A -110 aggregate for BAZINGA* wagers, absolute high end—lotta ML Dogs for us. It was 304 W’s for us in our first 500 BAZINGA*s to our free membership.

Some followers cherry-pick from our daily card. Some people prefer a lower end of the volume approach and will play just our SNGL or DBL sides, respectively. Our 3 different ZWA recommendations each have their own profile. The BAZINGA* for example—she’ll almost never be a BATP and will be either -110 ATS or a ML side not exceeding +135 or -120. Our DBL’s ZWA sides are 4 to 1 Dogs to Faves, 4 to 1 SFIT to BATP.

Because of our different ZWA profiles—followers can either follow our plays exactly, or carve out their own lower volume approach, while remaining OPBP and on ZGroup sides. Certain followers really key into ZGroup’s Play Types—LVSP’s, UHFART’s, NOPUSSY/RLM, SILVIO DANTE’s, to name a few. We have over 70 Play Types. Most followers use our picks & analysis in combination with their own subjective Leans & Likes.

ZGroup's typical wager amounts (units);

  • 1.0 ZWA (SINGLE) = ZGroup (our typical) wager amount (flat, 4 to 1 dogs to faves)
  • 2.0 ZWA (DOUBLE) = 2x ZGroup wager amount (DBL* high value investments)
  • 3.0 ZWA (TRIPLE) = 3x ZGroup wager amount (BAZINGA* big bang theory investments)
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Blog Posts

WSW's & RSL's. STC

WSW’s & RSL’s. STC

RSL 

Right Side Loss. The daily sports bettor will lose games they should win. And they’ll win games they should lose. Lotta people want it to be one way—but it’s the other. You have to respect the inevitability and likelihood of the L. Once you’ve come to grips with these realities—you’ll abide by the maximum 2 x’s ZWA rule, absolutely. Nothing demonstrates just how tough this grind is, how smart you have to be—quite like the existence and frequency of RSL’s and WSW’s.

WSW 

Wrong Side Win.

STC 

Stay The Course. Breaks, luck and swings are absolutely a part of this thing—as we all know. How the gambler handles L’s is as important as cashing winning tickets. The W’s create their own set of challenges too (“handling” W’s is easier). It’s a minefield. Stay disciplined. You’re either capable of existing within the market, or you’re not. Don’t let it be the discipline aspect that determines your fate. Whether that’s discipline as it relates to wager control, daily work-rate and prep or commitment to style. It’s our data-driven, gnarly, contrarian and consistent approach that’ll get us in a position to get evened up+ on those coin-flipper end of game spots, extra-inning L’s, goddamn missed free throws on the number, etc. The OPBP/volume style is designed to eat up L’s and hang around until we can get a run of results. The winning style is what will get us swinging back in the right direction after a tough stretch. STC. Grind.

SAIEW

Same As It Ever Was. Consistent in our approach, absolutely. Disciplined, gnarly, relentless in our aim to simulate handling the Noob’s action, 365. SAIEW.

"The Don", Ron and I have been booking bets and laying them since the 90’s. We handled well north of 7 figures worth of action from rooks and experienced bettors and everything in between—for the better part of 2 decades. We went public with our daily wagers Blog posts and analysis on 1/1/13. Since 1/1/13, millions of dollars have been bet worldwide on ZGroup sides. Some of our people have been with us for years now, plural.

ZGroup's Elements of Style (ZEOS) is a promotional tool and resource for members. But we hope too that it also serves as good, useful sports investing information for folks that are interested in the topic. BOL out there. Give ‘em hell.

24th March 2016 @ 21:57

Must love underdogs

Must love underdogs

For us, it’s all about the dogs, love the doggies, wouldn’t have it any other way. And we come by it very naturally, at this point—3rd decade for us on the dog. And we have probably 100K words over the last 3 years that explains why that’s generally where you need to position yourself within the market, and be there, day after goddamn day. But the point isn’t necessarily dogs for the sake of dogs—the point is OPBP, aligned with the house & pros. Dogs are what OPBP typically looks like.

March tourney time is different. That dynamic more or less flips (in spots, always in spots, everything is always in spots). Spend any day 1 or 2 or the tourney in any LV sportsbook and look, listen—the public is screaming for the dog. It’s 90/10. And that anecdotal bit is in the data too, of course, measurable. And oddsmakers have long since adjusted to the public’s March NCAAB tendencies. There is no squarer dog, across the entire sportsbetting spectrum—than that 12 over 5 matchup. And yeah, they hit, absolutely—but that’s not the point. The point is that those dogs do their work and grab SU W’s and ATS W’s getting about 25% less points than they should be getting, would be getting—if the game were arbitrarily a month earlier on a Tuesday. 4 of our 6 in season as we start to begin to shear that down over the coming months and transition into baseball exclusively. Banging style fits, OPBC/volume, Must Love Underdogs, 365 investing that ZG6. We’ve got our March hoops concepts and play type emphasis for this year that we’ll be looking to pair up with the upcoming betting opportunities.

Not some weeks, or sometimes—but always. 52 goddamn weeks. ZGroup established 1/1/13. 3 straight winning years, +10K benchmarks in 2, +7.5K in 1. Same as it ever was. Billy "Ritchie's Dad" born 12/17/36 in Hill Valley, California. Billy was obsessed with Lorraine. Not sure if they ever fucked. Probably they did.

Join a community of data-driven, contrarian and winning players.

24th March 2016 @ 21:30

ZGroup Manifesto

ZGroup’s sports investing Manifesto

The ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to be the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor—every goddamn day of the year. We have Fading The Public down to a science. Actually—we’ve boiled it down to numbers & style. We wrote a book for the contrarian sports bettor, similar to the book that people usually refer to in relation to blackjack.

We’ve been making our money sports investing since the 90’s. We handled the action of rookies and veterans and everything in between, for over a decade. We handled well north of 7 figures worth of investments—beginning back in the day when the best and only place to get daily numbers was the newspaper. We switched over to laying them, exclusively, towards the end of last decade—and began sharing our daily wagers for free on 1/1/13.

There were a number of reasons why we made the switch. Number 1 was the proliferation of data on the web and in the cloud and the emergence of good line movement and public side preference information. Also, Ron "The Don" almost got himself killed at a family owned Thai restaurant, in pursuit of monies owed to The ZGroup.

So now, for us, across 6 pro and college sports, with ZGroup & follower’s sides—we simulate what it’s like to run an illegal sportsbetting operation. It’s bookie side action, 365—without all the headache that comes along with running an illegal sports betting operation.

We always thought there was value in our experience, our view of the sports investing market and in our daily wagers process. In 2013, we set out to build something on top of cashed tickets. And mostly, ZGroup services was born out of our utter disdain for the rookie & fraud “handicappers” that were becoming far too prevalent on Twitter and elsewhere. We felt a mandate to offer a legitimate, honest service that lives exactly opposite the Noob dipshits that are out there. Them with their 10 star bombs, and HPD resets, and locks, and guaranteed picks—clogging up the airways, disrespecting the grind, out there in mass—like so many nickels and dimes. And since January of 2013, doing things our way, the right way—we’ve built a community of data-driven, contrarian and winning players with followers worldwide.

We are a picks service for folks that historically have never had much use for handicappers. ZGroup followers/future members are smart players with a fully developed understanding of sports investing. They’re folks that understand the time commitment required to beat the books. But they don’t have that time to give—and they’ve basically commissioned us to do the required work, daily.

95% of handicappers are not about beating the books. They use sports investing merely as an avenue to get their weak-ass hustle on. And the idea of paying for 1 pick, betting somebody else’s Expected Outcome Side—that’s absurd. Nothing in the history of the world has ever been worth risking more than DBL your ZWA. That doesn’t mean there’s never a time to press up. It just means that the only thing extraordinary in that dynamic is the amount by which a gambler has exceeded his Typical Wager Amount. And if you’re gonna bet a Like—bet your own goddamn Like. TBG offers members a successful, long-term sportsbetting strategy. And we have the data to backup that assertion.

Every ZGroup side includes information about how the pick fits, for us. Our acronyms and additional write-ups allow us to relay the objective and subjective elements that are present in a ZGroup Style Fit side. The novice handicapper’s analysis & rationale is non-existent. It’s non-existent because it doesn’t exist. They’re just throwing shit up against the wall, hoping something will stick. Or they’re so dense that they don’t even understand their own EOS Likes. Or the rookie “capper” is too stupid to spell words and write. Or they’re such part-timers that they don’t allot the time it takes to explain themselves. If a handicapper isn’t at least willing to give more than just picks—block them and call the BBB.

“A perfectly placed comma in ‘you’re’ puts you in the 98th percentile.” —Steve Martin?

From a business perspective, the worst thing about being pro handicappers is that our competition is predominantly, overwhelmingly hacks & amateurs. It would be like owning and operating an auto dealership, where the other dealerships right around you are so bad—that customers leave their shops and drive far, far away. They’re so turned off by their dealings with your competition that they refuse to buy automobiles entirely. They’d rather walk from now on, 20 miles to work—than buy a car from those people or talk to them ever again.

Fuck handicappers. I hear you, believe me. We live in a handicapper free world. Their approach, EOS sides and marketing is disturbing. Seeing their work can take me to a place that I don’t like to go. A place that isn’t healthy for our daily process. I know what they’re about and I do not need to be reminded, ever. Now, we communicate daily with some handicapper friends and contacts. We follow a couple people on Twitter that post picks for clients and cap games—but these people are nothing like those people that we’re describing and railing against.

And with handicapping in general, it circles back to the old question—if you’re so sure about the Steelers-7, then what the fuck do you need my money for? Not to mention the fact that most of those people have somebody on the other line and they’re selling them the Browns+7—so as to give themselves their best shot at 1 client for every 2 clients that their marketing efforts attract.

We don’t engage in any of that nonsense. We work full-time at beating the books, our way, with 100% honesty and integrity. And there’s value in what we do. Our numbers and followers prove that. We are doing exactly what we should be doing. ZGroup offers followers/future members a successful, long-term sportsbetting strategy. And we began sharing our daily card on 1/1/13 because there was a mandate to offer a service that lives 180 degrees across from the Noob handicappers. That hasn’t changed. Our competition has actually gotten worse, more depraved, since 2013. And we’ll make you a deal. If they ever stop running their bullshit. If the wad-of-cash-avatar Twitter cappers ever do what they should do—stop, shut it down, go dark—that’ll be the day that we go back to laying them, exclusively. But until that day, we’re going to continue to share our picks and run our services. Exactly opposite in every way, by design—from dipshits like @profitdork.

Fading The Public is actually a very common notion. You’ll hear folks extoll the virtues of FTP. At some point, most think, “I should just do the opposite of what I think.” They’re not entirely wrong, at all. The whole system is designed to prevent Johnny Sportscenter bettor from using his little Conventional Wisdom to get paid at the betting window.

But very few have the balls to Fade The Public—to live OPBP. OPBP is a lifestyle. And even less have the expertise required to go OPBP/volume successfully. There’s a whole lot more to it than just identifying the public’s side and going opposite. Read ZGroup’s sports investing style, explained. 

If I had to stake some greasy, Vegas sportsbook veteran with a good track record or Bill Parcells, for a season of betting the NFL—I’d probably back the greaser. Sportsbetting has less to do with sports than it does gambling. Put another way—a professional poker player with a strong understanding of basketball and the NBA would do better betting the NBA than would Hubie Brown.

Brown’s been around the sport as a coach and an analyst for 50 years. Say what you want about Brown—but he knows the game. But, he probably wouldn’t be a successful NBA bettor because presumably he knows fuck-all about gambling and the number. Hubie Brown has been around the sport for just about a half century and his knowledge ball, as it pertains directly to the game—probably wouldn’t translate into wins at the window.

But on Twitter, amateur handicappers are trading exclusively on their basketball knowledge. Giving picks based on what they know, or what they think they know about goddamn Dwyane Wade. It’s fucking insane. Your average handicapper, especially those on Twitter—they are running non-stop game and scams. They’re not Vegas pros and they definitely don’t have a knowledge ball that’s as big as Hubie Brown’s. Unless the Hubie Brown we’re talking about is some dork in his mom’s basement or a barber in Yonkers, that has never been anywhere near a basketball court.

Handicappers that trade exclusively on Conventional Wisdom and sports knowledge are no different than fortune tellers and psychics, charging $20 for a palm read or flipping tarot cards. The only things that matter, the only elements that are real—are style, expertise and numbers. We might be handicappers, but we’re nothing like most of these dudes.

The Noob handicapper tweets grainy, brokedick photos of betting slips and screen shots. He thinks handicapping is when he bets $50 on a 3-teamer. We trade on analysis, picks, profit and accurately recorded HPD—verifiable via time stamped emails/wager posts.

The Noob handicapper puts dollar amounts next to his picks. That’s a dead giveaway that whoever wrote that doesn’t know what the fuck they’re doing—absolute amateur hour. Any dollar amount is relative. It means nothing to put a dollar amount next to a pick. $50 is a big bet for some people. $500 is Small-Change for others. And both those realities are fine. And they’re just that—reality. 

The gambler’s ROI is based on ZWA and betting bankroll. Scam cappers don’t have any concept of bankroll management. Our ZWA system is the only way to list picks—SNGL, DBL or TRPL. We’re not crazy about the term “units.” We say ZGroup Wager Amount (ZWA), exclusively.

The Noob handicapper resets his HPD. We trade on our winning years, all plays. There is nothing more pathetic than a Twitter “capper” giving a 10 star bomb, missing. Then chasing that L with a $2000 lock, whiff. Then his next play hits, it was the “lock of the century”—and he declares a profit. 

L’s are a part of this thing. If you don’t understand and respect the inevitability of the L—then you’re a loser. Understanding the nature of L’s leads to the DBL ZWA concept and principle. And until you’re operating with that reality as a pillar—it is impossible to win, your money is never yours. This type of player cannot even enjoy his wins. He has his -6.5 up 28 in the 4th quarter and he’s kicking himself because he wishes he had bet more. He doesn’t know where his next W is going to come from so he thinks that this particular win is a missed opportunity.

Because of our consistent, winning style—we know that our next W is right around the corner. We keep our focus right where it should be—on the next betting opportunity. We recorded W’s in over 1300 games in 2013, hitting 61.71% of our BAZINGA* (TRPL*) wager spots, achieving our +10K/100K benchmark in back-to-back years.

There is no such thing as a “lock.” People that believe in guaranteed picks or locks don’t understand the universe and they definitely don’t have a grip on the way the sporting world and investing works. The people that don’t understand this concept are the folks that have to sign over their automobile—or worse. We build bankrolls and protect our stack. We’re still eating off of W’s from last year.

The “documented” thing from handicappers on Twitter has to be the most vomit inducing thing that they do. As if anybody with a brain gives a shit about how some amateur documents his little plays. Everything we do is documented. We’re documented at every imaginable interval. ZGroup followers document our work at the window, with their local guy or at their online shop every day, year-round (ZG6).

Having shared our card with ZGroup followers for years—millions of dollars worldwide have been bet based on our emails/wager posts on our cock-sucking Blog. We’ve had some of the same folks with us for years now, plural, by the way.

And nothing we’ve done in the past will make a difference to a member if their stretch isn’t a winning stretch. That’s the way this thing works. And that’s fine. We’re uniquely prepared for the realities of this business. Our style, expertise and subsequent success is very much real.

I feel sorry for the #documented crowd. It’s easy to tell, any number of ways—that they’re incapable of investing sports for a living. We understand how tough a grind this thing is, how smart you have to be to be a consistent winner. Rookies have no shot. No chance Fredo. I don’t need to see their bullshit documentation to know that is a fact.

The losing sports bettor does this thing part-time. They have a good day or a bad day and then they don’t look at the numbers again for 72 hours. We approach sports investing the way a successful Wall Street broker approaches the stock market.

Stock brokers don’t come in and work 12 hours on a Monday and then take the rest of the week off. If stock brokers were like most sports bettors—then they would make a ton of trades on Monday and then go on vacation. They wouldn’t return your phone calls and their office would be dark and then they would reappear Thursday evening and start firing on the Chinese markets.

If they were your broker—you would fire them. You’d fire them because you’d be able to make an assumption about their behavior and subsequent future in the market. And the accurate assumption would be that they have no future in the market, zero.

We invest sports for a living and share our card with members 365 days a year. We apply our style & expertise to 6 professional and college leagues. ZGroup followers are as disciplined as we are. We send our wagers to followers/future members in plenty of time to get them booked with their guy or local shop, 365. The OPBP/volume style and approach to the market mandates a ZGroup card from every full board.

Games hit and games miss. Your ATS Dog will win by 3 touchdowns and you’re Short-Odds Fave will get shutout at home. The rest will be right around the number. The way you make money betting sports is to have a consistent, winning style. Then you have to kick the number’s ass.

The Noob handicapper gives games at kickoff that have been on the board for 36 hours. And the number for the Expected Outcome Side that he was always gonna give—is 2 points worse than it was when she opened. I’d say he’s got a dogshit number for his side because he wasn’t on his game, but to be on your game—first you must have game. Amateurs parading around as pros. And there’s nothing wrong with being an amateur. My only beef is when amateurs make their avatar a wad of cash and sell picks.

Style, numbers, expertise and then subjective matchup information—that’s where we live. Noob handicappers have that list backwards. They’ve got no style and they don’t know shit. Sorry for trolling.

“90% of being cool is looking cool.” —Chris Kyle

There are 2 ways to do this thing. Our way—fading rooks in terms of side and style. Data-driven, objective, disciplined, OPBP/volume. Or, you’ll need a wager amount that will pay 3 months of your personal bills. You’ll need to be insanely selective. And then hammer 3 games a month. Oh, and for approach #2—you’ll need to have been born with a fucking horseshoe up your ass.

ZGroup followers have come to the realization that the way most people bet sports is wrong and they’re in agreement with the OPBP/volume concept & approach. Followers are disciplined. They’re comfortable with volume and they possess a stiff enough chin to handle the inevitable gambling swings. Followers/Future Members Must Love Underdogs.

ZGroup followers are experienced players—often contacting us for replacement sides, additional information about data & trends for upcoming games and for our thoughts on matchups that may or may not be on a given day’s ZGroup card.

The number of games we play is strategic and designed to mimic the betting patterns of the novice gambler. Our aim is to position ourselves, and the followers that follow our plays—as if we’re the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor (less the benefit of the juice, of course).

We can’t simulate what it’s like to be on the right side of the vig. But unlike booking bets, we control when we move on a side. We monitor opening lines and log side data from opening numbers until a game comes down off the board. We use our expertise and experience, combined with our TII to work for consistently good numbers for all ZGroup sides. And assuming followers/future members get their money in full from their guy or shop—we don’t have to worry about what Jesse Pinkman would refer to as, “Breakage.” 

And by breakage, what we mean is, if you were actually booking the bets of our Noob—he’d be the type of guy that would have trouble paying his debts. We don’t have to worry about that, ever since we switched over from taking them to laying them.

Ours is volume style and the number matters. The number we slap on the Blog or followers email on it’s way out the door is always realistic. It’s a number we know followers will have access to in combination with our TII. We work hard for our followers to monitor opening lines and track line moves. ZGroup followers should have more than one place that handles their action. Line shopping is crucial and an overlooked aspect by 95% of the betting public. There is an edge for the bettor that seeks out their side’s best available number.

We are full-time sports investing consultants, per our style—to each and every member of our contrarian betting community. The daily email/Blog post with our wagers is a vital tool for our followers and it helps propel them into that elusive 5% of people that make money investing sports.

We usually limit our contact to 1 or 2 emails/Blog posts per day—always sent with enough time for followers to get down. ZGroup’s plays are sent at least one hour before tip, kick or first pitch—or by 4 PM Pacific US, guaranteed, every day. Our broker gets the ZGgroup picks email just like everybody else. Most of what we do is objective. We mostly give games based on things that only ZGroup can identify in betting trends, sprinkling in about 25% subjectivity. We don’t say system—we prefer style. Fading the public is an art—not a science.

Successful sportsbetting is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. The ZGroup offers followers/future members a successful, long-term sports betting strategy.

The followers/future member email is year-round, 365. Football (NFL & NCAAF). Baseball (MLB). Basketball (NBA & NCAAB). Hockey (NHL).

ZGroup will keep you in the black. ZGroup will take you from the red to the black. You’ll enjoy a ton of action and make money investing on sports.

Join our group of data-driven, contrarian and winning sports investors.

22nd March 2016 @ 05:38

No guarantees, no locks nor fixes

Nothing is guaranteed in sports investing and gambling. There are no other picks in the world that we’d take over ours—but nothing is promised. Not a side, not a day, not a month. Swings and cold spells are inevitable OPBP/volume. And if we happen to have a bad stretch to start a new membership period—we will never give back a dime from our membership fees. Never. Not a cent, ever. And if you’re looking for us to say sorry after a rough day—you’ve got the wrong guys.

Refunds and apologies imply a guarantee and offering either would make us exactly like the rest of those dipshits on Twitter and elsewhere. It’s 50+ years combined experience for ZGroup members analyzing the number. And we work full-time, banging Style Fits—so as to duck the slump. But if you happen to join for a rough stretch, SAYBL (sorry about your bad luck).

It is not our job to manage expectations. I can’t explain how little I care about the little number in somebody’s head that they think they’re entitled to. The gamblers ROI is based on bankroll and ZWA. We beat the books. And if sports investing was a casino table game—it would have the same reputation as keno & penny slots, in terms of the percentage of players that win at it. And the style yields results when it yields results. I sleep like a baby after Style Fit L’s.

Betting sports, you’ll have your +10 road dog win by double digits. Your good number -6.5 home fave will get smoked. The rest are going to be right around the number. That’s why it’s consistency in terms of side and data that are the only things that really matter (and push the right button, hopefully, here and there). The pro focuses on the data, the objective—maintains their consistency & work rate, is able to make connections between matchups in leagues both pro & college (our ZG6).

Some people have a fantasy about what it is to bet sports. They believe that it is something other than a total and absolute grind. They think at some point they’ll break through, it will become easy—miraculously their subjective insight will align perfectly with the actual game results & numbers, forever. Laugh to keep from crying.

Some people have no realistic understanding of ZWA, ROI and bankroll concepts. Noobs think that long-term success lies in finally getting to a place where it’ll be their own subjective insight that makes them winners. Expected Outcome Sides. Here’s a clue—we all “like” the same shit, everybody. It would be like playing a board game and being determined to win—but while playing by the rules you’ve made up, the rules that you want. Rules that are totally independent, and in fact are in direct opposition to the actual rules of the game. The rook wants sportsbetting to be one way—but it’s another.

There are plenty of handicappers out there that absolutely do not understand how to win, give Likes and Expected Outcome Sides and offer guarantees for something you couldn’t possibly guarantee. A lot of people would actually be more comfortable with those people. Their locks and guarantees indulge their fantasies about gambling. We’d be happy to give you a referral.

Pay for our work—or don’t. And if you pay for our work—either invest our sides, or don’t. If you’re dissatisfied ever with results—quit. NADB (not a dime back). There are no sign-up or cancellation fees. BOL (best of luck). It is true that our approach isn’t for everybody. It takes an advanced understanding of the market for our approach to make sense. OPBP/volume, everything counterintuitive, 180 degrees across from virtually everybody else, by design.

Here’s a “lock” for you. Win, lose or draw, 365—we’ll be here, sending our picks to our members on deadline. Doing exactly what we should be doing—and that’s banging our ZGroup style fits and running our membership services.

We post our picks to ZGroup Members by 4 PM Pacific US or 1 hour before kick, tip or first pitch. We post our picks on the blog & Twitter to promote our service. The ZGroup trades in picks, profit, analysis, reality & honesty. Our service is 180 degrees across from the dipshit handicappers on Twitter and elsewhere.

Fading the public is an art, not a science. Our approach is a style, not a system. Successful sportsbetting is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. ZGroup offers members a successful, long-term sportsbetting strategy.

The price to receive our daily wagers & Blog posts/analysis is $64 per month. That’s just $2 a day! (give or take 13 cents). Too goddamn cheap, if you ask us.

Join a community of data-driven, contrarian & winning sports investors.

22nd March 2016 @ 03:49

The Winning Player

The Winning Player

There is no money in the expected outcome. Like it or not—that’s the truth. The oddsmakers know what you know. That’s their job. And they’re good at it. The whole market is designed to prevent Johnny Sportscenter from using his little Conventional Wisdom to cash tickets. Johnny Sportscenter is why there are beautiful hotels in the desert. He’s why the Vegas sportsbooks are recession proof. But there is a small minority of folks that do just fine betting sports. With the right size bankroll, ZWA and smarts—you can make a living beating the books.

The people that win have a fully developed understanding of the sports investing market specifically and gambling in general. They possess the experience & expertise that usually comes along with a firm grasp on how the market works. They have a stiff enough chin to handle the swings. And it’s their daily work-rate and consistency that helps them through the inevitable rough stretch. And discipline. Discipline in all aspects. The winning player is disciplined. The losing player is not.

The winning player is smart and they’re experienced enough with the sports specifically to have their arms fully around the subjective matchup stuff at all times, effortlessly. We talk a lot about the insignificance of the subjective matchup and team stuff—but that’s in regard to side selection and primary rationale. You have to know and understand these sports, teams and matchups—in both a present and in a historical sense. The subjective shit and Likes do not fucking matter because your LLL’s will only help you at the window if your style is right, if you have a fully developed understanding of the market & numbers, if your overall gambling expertise level is adequate—and if you’re only using your LLL’s for ZWA purposes, not side selection.

A professional poker player that knows fuck-all about football and the NFL would likely do better betting the NFL than would Mike Ditka (assuming Ditka knows dick about gambling). Just knowing where it all fits from the subjective aspect is not enough to be a winning player—not even close. Sports investing is more about numbers than sports. But we’re not saying that you can win consistently without being a sports expert for your section or sections. You do. The winning sports bettor’s sports knowledge ball is in the 95th percentile, at least.

Also, the winning player has had his teeth kicked-in betting sports, at some point, probably more than once—and he’s better because of it. When it comes to sports investing—experience is expensive, typically.

22nd March 2016 @ 03:26

The inevitability of the L

The inevitability of the L

We don't give a fuck/shit about our or anybody else’s YIELD/ROI whatever. The gambler’s ROI is based on ZWA and betting bankroll. Scam cappers don’t have any concept of bankroll management. Our ZWA system is the only way to list picks—SNGL, DBL or TRPL. We’re not crazy about the term “units.” We say ZGroup's Typical Wager Amount (ZWA), exclusively.

The Noob handicapper resets his HPD. We trade on our winning years, all plays. There is nothing more pathetic than a Twitter “capper” giving a 10 star bomb, missing. Then chasing that L with a $2000 lock, whiff. Then his next play hits. It was the “lock of the century.“ And he declares a profit. L’s are a part of this thing. If you don’t understand and respect the inevitability of the L—then you’re a loser, or certain to be one soon. Understanding the nature of L’s leads to the DBL concept and principle. And until you’re operating with that reality as a pillar—it is impossible to win, your money is never yours. This type of player cannot even enjoy his wins. He has his -6.5 up 28 in the 4th quarter and he’s kicking himself because he wishes he had bet more. He doesn’t know where his next W is going to come from so he thinks that this particular win is a missed opportunity.

Because of our consistent, winning type—we know that our next W is right around the corner. We keep our focus right where it should be—on the next investing opportunity.

22nd March 2016 @ 03:10

Play types & Abbreviations/Acronyms (A-Z)

ZGroup’s General Investing Data Play Types

Everything we give is one of these—has to be. There’s a measure of comfort in that fact. These are the most basic designations of a side. These distinctions are based on the betting data and these grades are almost entirely objective (small bit of subjectivity involved, nothing is black & white in sports investing). The General Investing Data Play Types are important for our ratios—they’re everything, in fact.

We know exactly where we want to be on the OPBP continuum—for a given day, a week, a month and for the full year investing calendar across our 6 pro & college. Our GIDPT charted allows us to see exactly where we’re positioned within the market—what adjustments need to be made, our level of freedom to play a BATP, if we’re too gnarly of late, or not gnarly enough.

ZGroups’s Acronyms & Phrases

Anything we say more than once, we probably have an acronym for it. We speak and think in our acronyms. They’re absolutely vital for our daily sports investing process. Also, they help preserve our most precious resource—our time. I suppose that they’re a bit of a gag on some level (UHFART). But I don’t know what the hell else you’d call a bet on the Unranked Home Favorite Against a Ranked Team. The items on this list are explained further below.

A to Z

50/50
The house has put a number up on the board that has split the action 50/50, more or less.

AN
Actual Number.

ATS
Against the Spread.

BATP
Bet Against Type for ZGroup. The Style Puts Us On Sides and we follow our OPBP/volume style and principles, absolutely. We’re relentlessly consistent in our approach to beating the books, our way. But we do reserve the right to push any button, move on any side, anytime we damn well please—regardless of how it fits with how we operate 95% of the time. NTN’s, PUSSY’s & PAAW’s are all BATP’s. But the true BATP is a total departure from where we typically position ourselves in relation to the betting trends & data, line movement and the type of player we’re joining at the window. For the true BATP—we’re not positioned where we usually are for that good RLM, or Public Side in a Value’s Walked/MVR spot. The successful gambler has some witch in ‘em. BATP’s allow us to get our witch on. BATP’s will always be Lean, Like, Love (LLL) sides from our initial 5 step daily handicapping process. The BATP allows us to keep the whole board open when we’re Full Trend Betting. And silver lining alert—a Bet Against Type for us in a MRLM spot does mean we are backing the value side.

BN
Best Number. A number we think is likely to be available and one we’re certainly comfortable with should it appear. Listed for followers as “BN+7.5.”

BUP-120
Buy the half-point. The way we watch the data—it’s unlikely that I’ll pay for the half-point if it’s going to be available for free at some point. There are competing schools of thought about the value of buying a halfer or more. Some pros swear by it. Others contend that it’s a losing strategy—a negative expectation play and way too juicy. There’s no future in too juicy. We’d tend to side with the latter. Consistency is vital to the style and we’re consistent with the spots where we drink that juice (RLM/MIT spots around KEY1 numbers). Most books will charge -130 for a half-point on or off NFL numbers 3 & 7.

DTF
Dog to Favorite movement.

FLIPPER 
Coin Flipper Dog. Sometimes, if you take a step back and look at a matchup more from a pure “sporting perspective”—a lot of these games are more or less coin-flippers. Either team is equally likely to win. The point spread, often times—is based primarily on Public Perception and not Historical Performance Data. FLIPPER’s are Short/Medium-Odds spots where we believe the Public Perception & HPD is Brokedick (there’s a gap, not in line).

FTD
Favorite to Dog movement.

FTP
Fade the Public.

GPS
Good Public Side. GPS plays are when we’ve got what we feel is some real good RVAL (10%+ gap between our number and the Actual Number) on the Public Side. For the GPS, we feel we’ve identified adequate subjective angles too, some of that good Conventional Wisdom. And with bet Now TBI, accompanied by eventual Traditional line moves—we’ve gotten a Good Number for our side.

GTI 
Game-Time Investment. Oak+14 (Pitt) 425, GT, BN+14.5, LMOF, MVR, SNGL

INOW
Invest NOW. Den-6.5 (KC) 425, N, KEY1, RVAL, SNGL

KEY1
There are premium numbers for certain sports. For the NFL, it is the numbers 3 and 7. We’ve our own KEY1’s & KEY2’s for the ATS sections of the 6 pro and college we invest in. NFL Favorites will win by exactly 3 points nearly 10% of the time and by exactly 7 points nearly 5% of the time.
NFL games are decided by 3 points about 15% of the time and 7 points about 8% of the time. The other most common numbers of defeat are by margins of 10 and 6 points.

KEY2
Numbers of secondary importance. We think of our KEY2’s in the NFL as the numbers 4, 6, 8, 10, 13 & 14. We weight our side selection heavily in regards to how we’re positioned around KEY1’s. KEY2’s are of less importance—but they matter a great deal too, obviously.

LMAU
Line Moves Against Us.

LMOF
Line Moves Our Favor.

LVSP
Las Vegas Special. SL + RLM = LVSP. For LVSP’s, real Sharp Line out of Vegas—very little choice for us but to take their word for it. The LVSP features at least a hint/touch of RLM too.

MVI
Max Value Investment. Our BAZINGA* big bang theory wager (3x our typical wager amount).

MVR
Big Mover. A description to relay to followers that a play has a number that’s undergone significant line movement. Movers’s can often times be Fave To Dog (FTD) or Dog To Fave (DTF) investing opportunities.

NERDY
Nerd Investment. Not very often, hardly ever, but sometimes, once in a blue moon—we’ll take a square approach for one of our daily cards. When you play the betting market like we do—you have to think your way through this thing each and every day. If some strong subjective Leans align with some public consensus but we can identify some of that good RVAL—We might just come in on the lower end of that volume and let ‘er rip with the masses on a couple—Nerd Investments.

NOOB
The “Noob” is a generalization, an amalgamation of the partially fictionalized adversary that we face-off with every day. We refer to the Noob to help
lock us into the day’s action. The Noob is Johnny freshman in his college dorm—betting football for the first time. There’s some distance now between what we do currently and our days spent booking bets. So for our Noob, this decade—it’s those cash-avatar Twitter-cappers that know fuck-all about beating the books.

NOPUSSY
50 assholes's at the bar—you’re the only one that’s on the 49‘ers! That is what a NOPUSSY side looks and feels like. The gnarliest side on the board, in terms of side unanimity and subjective matchup info. A very common investment for us.

NTG
Nothing too Gnarly. OPBP for us in a matchup exhibiting less than a 60/40 split in the side data. Both our NTG & NTN General Play Types are NTE (Nothing Too Extreme) sides.

NTN
Nothing too Nerdy. We’re playing the Public Side but it’s a sub 60/40 split and/or some micro betting trends exist that make our side a little less square than it may appear with only a quick glance at the betting data. If we can get a good read on some Traditional movement and use an early bet for a Good Number, public side sub 60/40 split—that’s a NTN side.

OPBP
Firmly Opposite the Betting Public—but not as extreme as our NOPUSSY sides.

PAAW
Public Ain’t Always Wrong. Joining the masses in what would otherwise be a NOPUSSY spot. Public Ain’t Always Wrong, god knows. The Style Puts us on sides and we stick to our ratios opposite the betting public/volume, absolutely. But the first paragraph in our charter states that our aim, 365—is to simulate handling the action of the novice sports bettor. The PAAW play enables us to “lay-off” some of that Noob action, in a sense.

PAPA
Public And Pros Alike. The General Public and the pro bettors in the desert are betting the same side in a matchup that had a Sharp Line grade. For PAPA’s, we’re surprised to see that our Sharp Side (SS) is the Public Side too. SL + MVR/TRAD side is consensus side = PAPA.

PP
Public Perception. The betting number for a particular matchup is often times based more on Public Perception than it is Historical Performance Data. This fact runs contrary to the belief that the vast majority of the betting public is operating under. The oddsmakers job is to split the action, allow the built in 10% vig to eat up the public’s money, over time. You have to laugh every time you hear a mainstream media type use the Vegas line as a prediction of the eventual final score. That type of talk demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of how sports & sports investing works. The number is
not a prediction of the future. It is a measure of the betting public’s perception of the teams or team. If you don’t understand that—you will never win.

PUSSY
Public Side clocking more than 60% of the bets and we’re at least a touch late to our side, or she’s a 60%+ consensus side with a touch of RLM—that’s a PUSSY side. This here is decidedly not our cup of tea.

RLM
Reverse Line Movement. RLM is most important to us. The trends and data typically dictate which way a line is going to move. RLM is when, for example—65% of the bets are coming in on the Spurs-7.5 and the line is moving south, down to -7, -6.5. Not all RLM is significant. RLM is difficult to predict. We’re particularly interested in RLM in NOPUSSY spots.

RVAL
Relative Value, or “perceived value.” Value based on the difference between the Actual Number  we get for a matchup and where we had that same matchup capped ourelves. If we capped a game Warriors-6.5 and the books have Warriors-9.5, if we feel great about our cap—We might let ‘er rip on the Dog +9.5. That’s 3 points of RVAL.

SILVIO DANTE
Too Good To Be True. We don’t believe in traps, per se—but there’s no denying that certain matchup’s and corresponding numbers attract certain
types of players. The type of player that we’re always looking to position ourselves across from. SILVIO DANTE is a tricky designation. But Silvio Dante’s will have NOPUSSY side data. And the matchup will be a Noob’s spot—using some very recent, obvious Historical Performance Data.

SL 
Sharp Line. We’re not crazy about the term, “sharp,” as it relates to a person. The “sharp player” is a myth, mostly. The only things that are real, definitely—is the Noob/rookie/novice/trouble/inexperienced player. We do however use the word sharp for number assessments. Sharp number. Sharp in the sense that they put her where they should—despite wholly predictable public action coming in the other way.

SMF
Scared Moneyline Favorite. SMF bettors aren’t loving the idea of laying the points and the price Straight Up seems reasonable/manageable to them—so they opt for their Favorite just to win. For SMF’s, the Dog is getting the majority of the side vote. Normally, a popular Dog ATS is popular on the Moneyline too. But, would-be Fave spread bettors are opting for the Moneyline Favorite to the extent that the Side and ML data is flipped. This is what Scared Money looks like in the betting data. This Play Type is most common in the NFL for spreads within the 3.5-7.5 point range.

SVAL 
Straight Value. Points or payout odds gained from movement as a result of betting trends, in relation to a given matchup’s Opening Number (ON).

SWINGER
New Orleans opens as 6 point Dogs in Seattle. Opening Line action moved them down to +4. After opening betting action had New Orleans back up to +5. The after dinner crowd had the Saints closing +6.5 most shops. That’s a SWINGER.

TRAD 
Traditional line movement. Line moving in the direction where the betting data would typically dictate that it go.

UHFART
Unranked Home Favorite Against A Ranked Team.

UTGW 
Unlikely To Get Worse.

VB
Value Bet. The side we're opting for has benefited from relatively less significant movement.

WALKER 
Value’s Walked. We’re moving on a side where the value has mostly evaporated. For us, a lot of times the A1A reason we’re moving on a side is because of the movement. For every investment we give, we make a simple determination—grab our side Now or later. Normally the name of the game is to move quickly on a side when the line moves are against us. But when she’s bottomed out (WALKER)—the only thing left to do is wait and see if she might uptick or swing back our way.

WCS
Will, Could, Should. There’s almost always a distinction to be made, and/or consider between where a given matchup’s number Will open, where it Could open and where it Should open. WCS. Sometimes the WCS is one and the same. Other times it isn’t. The WCS is what sports handicapping is all about. Noob handicappers on Twitter and elsewhere don’t know shit about WCS.

WELIVE
We’ll live. The way we describe a WALKER side where the value has walked for us—but we’re in a zone where statistically it is less likely to matter,
hopefully. An Absolute High End college football number RLM’s from a +30 down to +28.5 and Full Trend Betting we’re moving on the Long-Odds Dog (plus those 4 TD’s and the hook). We could had her +30—but we’ll live, hopefully.

22nd March 2016 @ 03:05

Our approach to sports investing

Daily process

Monitoring Opening Lines is absolutely vital, a no-brainer, 100% necessary and we’d venture a guess that less than 5% of sports bettors do it. We log multiple, key points of data for every matchup—from the time a betting opp hits the board until tip, kick or first pitch.

Betting data and line moves. We get our numbers from a variety of pay betting data services, unique access sites & public websites that post betting and trend information. Each data source with it’s own nuances, limitations and value. We monitor the betting number across more than a dozen shops—from the brick and mortar sportsbooks like the MGM Grand, Caesars & the Westgate SuperBook—to online shops like Bovada, 5Dimes SBO & Pinnacle.

Process is everything and there is quite a bit to ours. We control and regularize everything we possibly can from the moment Opening Lines post, on through our prep window and the production of the daily picks—right up to first pitch, tip or kick. Maintaining our consistent work-rate and our subsequent consistent results wouldn’t be possible without the input and expertise of all five of us.

We don’t handicap matchups so as to get into a handicapping competition with the oddsmakers. When there’s a gap between the Vegas number and how we see a particular matchup—we use that as the starting point to begin asking the right questions. Your independent number gives every matchup the proper context, to start—after you’ve compared your number to the Actual/Current Number & the Opening Number (ON).

Specific matchup information and the betting number is something you have to touch and feel. Logging all the relevant numbers should not look and feel like a data entry job. We handwrite and transfer all the digital data onto our original pick forms. Touch and feel. Get your website favorites folder correct, grab a pen, pick form & clipboard. Find a clean, well-lighted place.

ZGroup's Elements of Style lays our style bare, mostly. A style developed after 50+ years combined experience with sports investing—most of those years spent handling action. We’re the poker dealer that has seen a shit-ton of hands, in the game night after night, year after year. However, you might not agree with all of our Play Types or concepts. But if you’re reading this—we do hope that you’ve come across at least something here that makes sense, resonates with you. And it’s absolutely fine that some folks will disagree with a ZGroup Play Type, OPBP or concept. There is more than one way to skin a cat. ZGroup's elements of style & play types are just a tool & a way for members/followers to better understand our thought process. But it’s also meant to help others begin to think more deeply about sports investing, raise their acumen and begin to, or further develop their own style, their own approach. Because style is everything. Style, expertise, numbers—then subjective matchup information. Anybody can stick a game. The only things that are real, replicable—are style, expertise and numbers.

Develop your style. Know it. And then take those general swing thoughts with you as you dig into a particular day’s betting opportunities. But be careful not to make a matchup what you want it to be—don’t invent a Buy Low Sell High (BLSH) spot, for example. The betting opps are what they are, your Style Fit sides are what they are—never force a fit. The more in touch you are with what it is you’re looking for—the less likely you are to bet something that isn’t what you say it is. L’s are inevitable. So it’s absolutely vital that all L’s are Style Fit L’s. The Style Fit L concept is the 2nd most important item in this chapter. The most important item is the concept that LLL’s dictate wager amount, not general side selection. The non Style Fit L is a mistake that you cannot allow to happen. 2 things that the daily bettor truly controls is side selection and wager amount.

Data-driven, contrarian 365

We apply our sports investing expertise and style to 6 pro & college sports, year round. We’re dark for just a handful of days each year. We take the entire MLB All-Star break off. Ice up, son. The only other dark days for us each year are a day here and there—the day before Turkey Day,
Christmas Eve. But on those days we’re preparing for the next day or the upcoming weekend. 

The first line in our charter states that our aim is to simulate handling the rook’s action, 365. That is what we do. That is our A1A swing thought, every day. Besides, life is nowhere near interesting enough not to invest. And luckily for us, our style (opposite the betting public/volume) mandates
that we get our money into the market, every time that there’s a full board.

22nd March 2016 @ 02:18

Intro & style explained

First Chapter

The way we attack the bookies that handle our action is a style—not a system. Fading the public is an art—not a science. We bet numbers, data & trends. Our focus, 365—is to position ourselves to the good on Key Numbers, Opposite the Public, aligned with the house and pros. We’re Play Type, concept and data-driven with a heavy emphasis on timely betting. ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to handle the action of the rookie sports investor. We’ve developed the book for Fading the Public, similar to “The Book”, that people usually refer to in relation to blackjack.

There will always be a subjective element to our daily card, obviously—as we select between similar Play Types and matchup’s, shift between different points of emphasis within the style and generally think our way through beating the books, our way. The style provides the base from which we pivot off of. The number of games we play each day is strategic and based on the total number of investing opportunities, per sport—designed to simulate handling the action of the novice bettor/sports investor (they bet/invest at least one too many of their square sides).

The ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to be the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor—every goddamn day of the year. We have Fading The Public down to a science. Actually—we’ve boiled it down to numbers & style. Fading The Public is actually a very common notion. You’ll hear folks extoll the virtues of FTP. At some point, most think, “I should just do the opposite of what I think.” They’re not entirely wrong, at all. The whole system is designed to prevent Johnny Sportscenter bettor from using his little Conventional Wisdom to get paid at the betting window. But very few have the balls to Fade The Public—to live OPBP. OPBP (opposite the betting public) is a lifestyle. And even less have the expertise required to go OPBP/volume successfully. There’s a whole lot more to it than just identifying the public’s side and going opposite.

The way we attack the bookies that handle our action is a style—not a system. Fading the public is an art—not a science. We bet numbers, data & trends. Successful sportsbetting has so very little to do with what you know, what you think you know, or who you “Like.”

Successful sports investing is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. The ZGroup offers members a successful, long-term sports investing strategy.

Intro

What’s the goddamn point in betting strictly on value if it’s ultimately not the right side? If you’ve got a shotgun to your head and one winner saves your life, then in that scenario—I wouldn’t worry so much about making sure you’re on the value side. But we bet year-round, 365, across 6 pro & college sports, playing an OPBP/volume approach to the sports investing market—so it matters a great deal that we’re consistently identifying and playing the value side of a particular matchup. We have 2 main types of value, perceived and real. We refer to perceived value as “Relative Value.”

Relative Value (RVAL) is when our handicap produces a number that is different than the actual betting number or number consensus, for a given matchup. There is nothing more important than the Actual Number, obviously. But we trust our own numbers, absolutely, every bit as much as we do the number that those 5 fat fucks in the desert pump out. But that’s not to say that we’re looking to get into a handicapping competition every day of the year with LVSC. Straight RVAL investing is not the reason why our good, independent handicap is important. The independent handicap gives every matchup it’s proper context. When there’s a gap between our number and the Actual Number—that’s the appropriate starting point to dig in.

Now we have the working context and we can analyze the subjective and the HPD (historical performance data), make reads, begin trying to discern what the oddsmakers are telling us with their number. Identify the concepts and rationale that explain why the oddsmakers have set the matchup where they did. You should not make a wager until you’ve at least endeavored to understand all you can about a side’s number. The independent handicap is the job. Once we have the proper context to work on given day’s slate of investing opps—then we’re on the phone or email with each other. We talk to the people whose opinion we give a shit about. We take a closer look at the written information that we view as valuable, insightful. And we begin logging and analyzing the betting data. If at the end of all that, we still feel good about our number—then that’s a spot where we’ve identified RVAL. But every move we ultimately make is centered around the betting data and line movement. Where we’re positioned within the market, on the OPBP (opposite the betting public) continuum—that is everything to us, per our style.

ZGroup's Typical Wager Amount (ZWA)

We’re not crazy about the term “units.” We prefer to say typical wager amount exclusively but unit is the most self-explanatory. Any dollar amount is relative. $50 constitutes a large play for some folks, while $5000 is Small-Change for other investors. It means absolutely nothing to put a dollar amount next to a pick (total goddamn amateur hour).

No play in the history of the world has ever been worth more than Double your Typical Wager Amount. Successful sports investing is as much about protecting your stack as it is building it. Investing sports is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme.

There is no such thing as a “lock,” or a “guaranteed pick.” That’s not how the universe works. Everything we give is 1 or 2 x’s Typical Wager Amount. Our rare BAZINGA* (TRPL*) big bang theory wager of the day/month/year is triple units (ZWA's).

  • 1.0 ZWA (SINGLE) = ZGroup typical wager amount (flat, 4 to 1 dogs to faves)
  • 2.0 ZWA (DOUBLE) = 2x ZGroup typical wager amount (DBL* high value investments)
  • 3.0 ZWA (TRIPLE) = 3x ZGroup typical wager amount (BAZINGA* big bang theory investments)

Amount of investments

Our numbers, our leans, our daily work generate a wager. As a result of that strategy we can't tell you the exact amount of wagers/day or month. It obviously depends on the sports/lines available to wager. On weekend's more, during the week mostly less. A good average number of wagers/day would be between 6 and 10.

The number of games we play is strategic and designed to mimic the betting patterns of the novice gambler. Our aim is to position ourselves, and the members that follow our plays—as if we’re the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor (less the benefit of the juice, of course).

We can’t simulate what it’s like to be on the right side of the vig. But unlike booking bets, we control when we move on a side. We monitor opening lines and log side data until a game comes down off the board. We use our expertise and experience, combined with our timely betting instructions to work for consistently good numbers for all our sides.

Most of our followers/future members follow our plays exactly. A few of might only hammer down on our pick of the day—DBL* certified 54% for 2015, 65/121. A +106 aggregate for DBL* picks, absolute high end—lotta ML Dogs for us. It was 304 W’s for us in our first 500 DBL*s since we track our investments (1.1.2013). That's as much as 60% hit rate. We bang our BAZINGA* big bang theory wagers hard. For us, those are five figures investments, very rare (max. 5/month, sometimes less or even none), obviously.

Some followers/future members may cherry-pick from our daily card. Some people prefer a lower end of the volume approach and will play just our DBL sides. Our 3 different ZWA recommendations (see ZGroup’s typical wager amount section) each have their own profile. The BAZINGA* for example—will almost be either -110 ATS/o/u or a ML side not exceeding +135 or -120. Our SNGL’s ZWA sides are 4 to 1 dogs to faves, etc.

Because of our different ZWA profiles—followers/future members can either follow our plays exactly, or carve out their own lower volume approach, while remaining firmlyopposite the betting public and on ZGroup sides. We apply our sports investing expertise and style to 6 pro & college sports, year round.

Timely Investment Instructions (TII) 

There is tremendous value in constantly seeking your side’s Best Number. It’s not anexact science. There is movement that is difficult or impossible to predict. We know that most folks don’t have the time to Eyeball Fuck (iFK) every game, pouncing at the optimum time. But it’s like in Billiards—you don’t have to be Minnesota Fats to set up your next shot. All you have to do is make a determination. “Where would be the best place to leave the cue ball for my next shot?” If you want it to roll down to the other end of the table—you give it top spin. If you want it to come back—you strike the cue ball
low. If you’d like it to stay where it’s at—you strike the cue ball in the center. We bet our games early or late. Or we identify a Best Number that we think we can get, or a number we’re comfortable with—and we grab it. 

Engaging in the daily exercise of examining trends and making the simple determination, bet now or later—that can be enough to nick a profit some months, when you otherwise wouldn’t.

à la card (ZGroup's 6)

MLB runs April through October. We’re dark for just a handful of days each year. We take the entire MLB All-Star break off. Ice up, son. The only other dark days for us each year are a day here and there—the day before Turkey Day, Christmas Eve. But on those days we’re preparing for the next day or the upcoming weekend. The first line in our charter states that ZGroup’s aim is to simulate handling the rook’s action, 365. That is what we do. That is our swing thought, every day. Besides, life is nowhere near interesting enough not to invest. And luckily for us, our style (OPBP/volume) mandates
that we get our money into the market, every time that there’s a full board. 

NFL pre-season starts in early August and we monitor & log the data there, of course—getting down on 1-6 NFL pre-season games each year. We haven’t had a losing NFL season since we began monitor our card on 1/1/13.

NCAAF gets going in late August, before the NFL’s regular season starts. We bet college football from August to January. When both college football & the NFL’s regular season are underway, in early September—we sit out the weekends for our MLB section. We don’t need the MLB opportunities for those 3 or 4 weekends. But we’re back on MLB 7 days a week once their playoffs start.

The NHL is 1 of our 6. We monitor results, handicap and Spot Pick the entire NHL season, from October to April. And we need betting opportunities to bang Style Fits—but we don’t really give a shit which section they come from. Late in the fall, with 5 of our 6 in season—we don’t need the NHL for anything other than Spot Picks. We Fade to start the new NHL season, stick in for those 3 or 4 weeks before the NBA starts. But we sub NBA in for our daily NHL picks, once the NBA season starts. We don’t bet the NHL every night until we pick it up again full-time late in the winter, after the conclusion of the NFL and college football. We always play the NHL post-season, from beginning to end.

The NBA gets started in late October/early November. We bet the NBA every night, from October through it’s conclusion in June. College hoops starts in late November and we jam NCAAB from November through March.

We apply our style and expertise to 6 pro & college sports (MLB, NFL, NCAAF,NHL, NBA & NCAAB). And they’re all just another betting opportunity—a chance to bang our Style Fits and simulate handling the rook’s action. But the number of regular and post-season games for a given section represents a varying size piece of our annual sports investing pie. Baseball’s 162 is big for us, obviously. For what would be an entire NFL season’s worth of OPBP/volume betting—we do that every 4 weeks during the summer. There are just 14 games per week, most weeks in the NFL. And a goddamn week inbetween to regroup and ice up. For MLB—there are 15 games per day for 5 of the 7 days, every single week, from April to October. That’s a lot of handicapping & investing opps.

Baseball is our #1 sports-investing. Football is for part-timers. But that’s not to say that both college and pro football isn’t important to us. It is important. Very important. Most people get involved with betting because of football. But I’ll say this—anybody can stick in there and bet football. And my little nephew could handicap a Monday Night Football game. There are zero secrets in the NFL—everybody knows everything. It takes a pro to bet baseball. Baseball is the Cadillac of sports-investing. We average 8.095 plays per day for the entire sports-investing year. OPBP/volume.

ZGroup. A data-driven, gnarly, contrarian & winning sports investment service.

22nd March 2016 @ 02:05

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