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Intro & style explained
The way we attack the bookies that handle our action is a style—not a system. Fading the public is an art—not a science. We bet numbers, data & trends. Our focus, 365—is to position ourselves to the good on Key Numbers, Opposite the Public, aligned with the house and pros. We’re Play Type, concept and data-driven with a heavy emphasis on timely betting. ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to handle the action of the rookie sports investor. We’ve developed the book for Fading the Public, similar to “The Book”, that people usually refer to in relation to blackjack.
There will always be a subjective element to our daily card, obviously—as we select between similar Play Types and matchup’s, shift between different points of emphasis within the style and generally think our way through beating the books, our way. The style provides the base from which we pivot off of. The number of games we play each day is strategic and based on the total number of investing opportunities, per sport—designed to simulate handling the action of the novice bettor/sports investor (they bet/invest at least one too many of their square sides).
The ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to be the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor—every goddamn day of the year. We have Fading The Public down to a science. Actually—we’ve boiled it down to numbers & style. Fading The Public is actually a very common notion. You’ll hear folks extoll the virtues of FTP. At some point, most think, “I should just do the opposite of what I think.” They’re not entirely wrong, at all. The whole system is designed to prevent Johnny Sportscenter bettor from using his little Conventional Wisdom to get paid at the betting window. But very few have the balls to Fade The Public—to live OPBP. OPBP (opposite the betting public) is a lifestyle. And even less have the expertise required to go OPBP/volume successfully. There’s a whole lot more to it than just identifying the public’s side and going opposite.
The way we attack the bookies that handle our action is a style—not a system. Fading the public is an art—not a science. We bet numbers, data & trends. Successful sportsbetting has so very little to do with what you know, what you think you know, or who you “Like.”
Successful sports investing is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. The ZGroup offers members a successful, long-term sports investing strategy.
What’s the goddamn point in betting strictly on value if it’s ultimately not the right side? If you’ve got a shotgun to your head and one winner saves your life, then in that scenario—I wouldn’t worry so much about making sure you’re on the value side. But we bet year-round, 365, across 6 pro & college sports, playing an OPBP/volume approach to the sports investing market—so it matters a great deal that we’re consistently identifying and playing the value side of a particular matchup. We have 2 main types of value, perceived and real. We refer to perceived value as “Relative Value.”
Relative Value (RVAL) is when our handicap produces a number that is different than the actual betting number or number consensus, for a given matchup. There is nothing more important than the Actual Number, obviously. But we trust our own numbers, absolutely, every bit as much as we do the number that those 5 fat fucks in the desert pump out. But that’s not to say that we’re looking to get into a handicapping competition every day of the year with LVSC. Straight RVAL investing is not the reason why our good, independent handicap is important. The independent handicap gives every matchup it’s proper context. When there’s a gap between our number and the Actual Number—that’s the appropriate starting point to dig in.
Now we have the working context and we can analyze the subjective and the HPD (historical performance data), make reads, begin trying to discern what the oddsmakers are telling us with their number. Identify the concepts and rationale that explain why the oddsmakers have set the matchup where they did. You should not make a wager until you’ve at least endeavored to understand all you can about a side’s number. The independent handicap is the job. Once we have the proper context to work on given day’s slate of investing opps—then we’re on the phone or email with each other. We talk to the people whose opinion we give a shit about. We take a closer look at the written information that we view as valuable, insightful. And we begin logging and analyzing the betting data. If at the end of all that, we still feel good about our number—then that’s a spot where we’ve identified RVAL. But every move we ultimately make is centered around the betting data and line movement. Where we’re positioned within the market, on the OPBP (opposite the betting public) continuum—that is everything to us, per our style.
ZGroup's Typical Wager Amount (ZWA)
We’re not crazy about the term “units.” We prefer to say typical wager amount exclusively but unit is the most self-explanatory. Any dollar amount is relative. $50 constitutes a large play for some folks, while $5000 is Small-Change for other investors. It means absolutely nothing to put a dollar amount next to a pick (total goddamn amateur hour).
No play in the history of the world has ever been worth more than Double your Typical Wager Amount. Successful sports investing is as much about protecting your stack as it is building it. Investing sports is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme.
There is no such thing as a “lock,” or a “guaranteed pick.” That’s not how the universe works. Everything we give is 1 or 2 x’s Typical Wager Amount. Our rare BAZINGA* (TRPL*) big bang theory wager of the day/month/year is triple units (ZWA's).
- 1.0 ZWA (SINGLE) = ZGroup typical wager amount (flat, 4 to 1 dogs to faves)
- 2.0 ZWA (DOUBLE) = 2x ZGroup typical wager amount (DBL* high value investments)
- 3.0 ZWA (TRIPLE) = 3x ZGroup typical wager amount (BAZINGA* big bang theory investments)
Amount of investments
Our numbers, our leans, our daily work generate a wager. As a result of that strategy we can't tell you the exact amount of wagers/day or month. It obviously depends on the sports/lines available to wager. On weekend's more, during the week mostly less. A good average number of wagers/day would be between 6 and 10.
The number of games we play is strategic and designed to mimic the betting patterns of the novice gambler. Our aim is to position ourselves, and the members that follow our plays—as if we’re the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor (less the benefit of the juice, of course).
We can’t simulate what it’s like to be on the right side of the vig. But unlike booking bets, we control when we move on a side. We monitor opening lines and log side data until a game comes down off the board. We use our expertise and experience, combined with our timely betting instructions to work for consistently good numbers for all our sides.
Most of our followers/future members follow our plays exactly. A few of might only hammer down on our pick of the day—DBL* certified 54% for 2015, 65/121. A +106 aggregate for DBL* picks, absolute high end—lotta ML Dogs for us. It was 304 W’s for us in our first 500 DBL*s since we track our investments (1.1.2013). That's as much as 60% hit rate. We bang our BAZINGA* big bang theory wagers hard. For us, those are five figures investments, very rare (max. 5/month, sometimes less or even none), obviously.
Some followers/future members may cherry-pick from our daily card. Some people prefer a lower end of the volume approach and will play just our DBL sides. Our 3 different ZWA recommendations (see ZGroup’s typical wager amount section) each have their own profile. The BAZINGA* for example—will almost be either -110 ATS/o/u or a ML side not exceeding +135 or -120. Our SNGL’s ZWA sides are 4 to 1 dogs to faves, etc.
Because of our different ZWA profiles—followers/future members can either follow our plays exactly, or carve out their own lower volume approach, while remaining firmlyopposite the betting public and on ZGroup sides. We apply our sports investing expertise and style to 6 pro & college sports, year round.
Timely Investment Instructions (TII)
There is tremendous value in constantly seeking your side’s Best Number. It’s not anexact science. There is movement that is difficult or impossible to predict. We know that most folks don’t have the time to Eyeball Fuck (iFK) every game, pouncing at the optimum time. But it’s like in Billiards—you don’t have to be Minnesota Fats to set up your next shot. All you have to do is make a determination. “Where would be the best place to leave the cue ball for my next shot?” If you want it to roll down to the other end of the table—you give it top spin. If you want it to come back—you strike the cue ball
low. If you’d like it to stay where it’s at—you strike the cue ball in the center. We bet our games early or late. Or we identify a Best Number that we think we can get, or a number we’re comfortable with—and we grab it.
Engaging in the daily exercise of examining trends and making the simple determination, bet now or later—that can be enough to nick a profit some months, when you otherwise wouldn’t.
à la card (ZGroup's 6)
MLB runs April through October. We’re dark for just a handful of days each year. We take the entire MLB All-Star break off. Ice up, son. The only other dark days for us each year are a day here and there—the day before Turkey Day, Christmas Eve. But on those days we’re preparing for the next day or the upcoming weekend. The first line in our charter states that ZGroup’s aim is to simulate handling the rook’s action, 365. That is what we do. That is our swing thought, every day. Besides, life is nowhere near interesting enough not to invest. And luckily for us, our style (OPBP/volume) mandates
that we get our money into the market, every time that there’s a full board.
NFL pre-season starts in early August and we monitor & log the data there, of course—getting down on 1-6 NFL pre-season games each year. We haven’t had a losing NFL season since we began monitor our card on 1/1/13.
NCAAF gets going in late August, before the NFL’s regular season starts. We bet college football from August to January. When both college football & the NFL’s regular season are underway, in early September—we sit out the weekends for our MLB section. We don’t need the MLB opportunities for those 3 or 4 weekends. But we’re back on MLB 7 days a week once their playoffs start.
The NHL is 1 of our 6. We monitor results, handicap and Spot Pick the entire NHL season, from October to April. And we need betting opportunities to bang Style Fits—but we don’t really give a shit which section they come from. Late in the fall, with 5 of our 6 in season—we don’t need the NHL for anything other than Spot Picks. We Fade to start the new NHL season, stick in for those 3 or 4 weeks before the NBA starts. But we sub NBA in for our daily NHL picks, once the NBA season starts. We don’t bet the NHL every night until we pick it up again full-time late in the winter, after the conclusion of the NFL and college football. We always play the NHL post-season, from beginning to end.
The NBA gets started in late October/early November. We bet the NBA every night, from October through it’s conclusion in June. College hoops starts in late November and we jam NCAAB from November through March.
We apply our style and expertise to 6 pro & college sports (MLB, NFL, NCAAF,NHL, NBA & NCAAB). And they’re all just another betting opportunity—a chance to bang our Style Fits and simulate handling the rook’s action. But the number of regular and post-season games for a given section represents a varying size piece of our annual sports investing pie. Baseball’s 162 is big for us, obviously. For what would be an entire NFL season’s worth of OPBP/volume betting—we do that every 4 weeks during the summer. There are just 14 games per week, most weeks in the NFL. And a goddamn week inbetween to regroup and ice up. For MLB—there are 15 games per day for 5 of the 7 days, every single week, from April to October. That’s a lot of handicapping & investing opps.
Baseball is our #1 sports-investing. Football is for part-timers. But that’s not to say that both college and pro football isn’t important to us. It is important. Very important. Most people get involved with betting because of football. But I’ll say this—anybody can stick in there and bet football. And my little nephew could handicap a Monday Night Football game. There are zero secrets in the NFL—everybody knows everything. It takes a pro to bet baseball. Baseball is the Cadillac of sports-investing. We average 8.095 plays per day for the entire sports-investing year. OPBP/volume.
ZGroup. A data-driven, gnarly, contrarian & winning sports investment service.
Published 22nd March @ 02:05