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Our approach to sports investing
Monitoring Opening Lines is absolutely vital, a no-brainer, 100% necessary and we’d venture a guess that less than 5% of sports bettors do it. We log multiple, key points of data for every matchup—from the time a betting opp hits the board until tip, kick or first pitch.
Betting data and line moves. We get our numbers from a variety of pay betting data services, unique access sites & public websites that post betting and trend information. Each data source with it’s own nuances, limitations and value. We monitor the betting number across more than a dozen shops—from the brick and mortar sportsbooks like the MGM Grand, Caesars & the Westgate SuperBook—to online shops like Bovada, 5Dimes SBO & Pinnacle.
Process is everything and there is quite a bit to ours. We control and regularize everything we possibly can from the moment Opening Lines post, on through our prep window and the production of the daily picks—right up to first pitch, tip or kick. Maintaining our consistent work-rate and our subsequent consistent results wouldn’t be possible without the input and expertise of all five of us.
We don’t handicap matchups so as to get into a handicapping competition with the oddsmakers. When there’s a gap between the Vegas number and how we see a particular matchup—we use that as the starting point to begin asking the right questions. Your independent number gives every matchup the proper context, to start—after you’ve compared your number to the Actual/Current Number & the Opening Number (ON).
Specific matchup information and the betting number is something you have to touch and feel. Logging all the relevant numbers should not look and feel like a data entry job. We handwrite and transfer all the digital data onto our original pick forms. Touch and feel. Get your website favorites folder correct, grab a pen, pick form & clipboard. Find a clean, well-lighted place.
ZGroup's Elements of Style lays our style bare, mostly. A style developed after 50+ years combined experience with sports investing—most of those years spent handling action. We’re the poker dealer that has seen a shit-ton of hands, in the game night after night, year after year. However, you might not agree with all of our Play Types or concepts. But if you’re reading this—we do hope that you’ve come across at least something here that makes sense, resonates with you. And it’s absolutely fine that some folks will disagree with a ZGroup Play Type, OPBP or concept. There is more than one way to skin a cat. ZGroup's elements of style & play types are just a tool & a way for members/followers to better understand our thought process. But it’s also meant to help others begin to think more deeply about sports investing, raise their acumen and begin to, or further develop their own style, their own approach. Because style is everything. Style, expertise, numbers—then subjective matchup information. Anybody can stick a game. The only things that are real, replicable—are style, expertise and numbers.
Develop your style. Know it. And then take those general swing thoughts with you as you dig into a particular day’s betting opportunities. But be careful not to make a matchup what you want it to be—don’t invent a Buy Low Sell High (BLSH) spot, for example. The betting opps are what they are, your Style Fit sides are what they are—never force a fit. The more in touch you are with what it is you’re looking for—the less likely you are to bet something that isn’t what you say it is. L’s are inevitable. So it’s absolutely vital that all L’s are Style Fit L’s. The Style Fit L concept is the 2nd most important item in this chapter. The most important item is the concept that LLL’s dictate wager amount, not general side selection. The non Style Fit L is a mistake that you cannot allow to happen. 2 things that the daily bettor truly controls is side selection and wager amount.
Data-driven, contrarian 365
We apply our sports investing expertise and style to 6 pro & college sports, year round. We’re dark for just a handful of days each year. We take the entire MLB All-Star break off. Ice up, son. The only other dark days for us each year are a day here and there—the day before Turkey Day,
Christmas Eve. But on those days we’re preparing for the next day or the upcoming weekend.
The first line in our charter states that our aim is to simulate handling the rook’s action, 365. That is what we do. That is our A1A swing thought, every day. Besides, life is nowhere near interesting enough not to invest. And luckily for us, our style (opposite the betting public/volume) mandates
that we get our money into the market, every time that there’s a full board.
Published 22nd March @ 02:18