Results SummaryWe're still calculating data for this handicapper
Play types & Abbreviations/Acronyms (A-Z)
ZGroup’s General Investing Data Play Types
Everything we give is one of these—has to be. There’s a measure of comfort in that fact. These are the most basic designations of a side. These distinctions are based on the betting data and these grades are almost entirely objective (small bit of subjectivity involved, nothing is black & white in sports investing). The General Investing Data Play Types are important for our ratios—they’re everything, in fact.
We know exactly where we want to be on the OPBP continuum—for a given day, a week, a month and for the full year investing calendar across our 6 pro & college. Our GIDPT charted allows us to see exactly where we’re positioned within the market—what adjustments need to be made, our level of freedom to play a BATP, if we’re too gnarly of late, or not gnarly enough.
ZGroups’s Acronyms & Phrases
Anything we say more than once, we probably have an acronym for it. We speak and think in our acronyms. They’re absolutely vital for our daily sports investing process. Also, they help preserve our most precious resource—our time. I suppose that they’re a bit of a gag on some level (UHFART). But I don’t know what the hell else you’d call a bet on the Unranked Home Favorite Against a Ranked Team. The items on this list are explained further below.
A to Z
The house has put a number up on the board that has split the action 50/50, more or less.
Against the Spread.
Bet Against Type for ZGroup. The Style Puts Us On Sides and we follow our OPBP/volume style and principles, absolutely. We’re relentlessly consistent in our approach to beating the books, our way. But we do reserve the right to push any button, move on any side, anytime we damn well please—regardless of how it fits with how we operate 95% of the time. NTN’s, PUSSY’s & PAAW’s are all BATP’s. But the true BATP is a total departure from where we typically position ourselves in relation to the betting trends & data, line movement and the type of player we’re joining at the window. For the true BATP—we’re not positioned where we usually are for that good RLM, or Public Side in a Value’s Walked/MVR spot. The successful gambler has some witch in ‘em. BATP’s allow us to get our witch on. BATP’s will always be Lean, Like, Love (LLL) sides from our initial 5 step daily handicapping process. The BATP allows us to keep the whole board open when we’re Full Trend Betting. And silver lining alert—a Bet Against Type for us in a MRLM spot does mean we are backing the value side.
Best Number. A number we think is likely to be available and one we’re certainly comfortable with should it appear. Listed for followers as “BN+7.5.”
Buy the half-point. The way we watch the data—it’s unlikely that I’ll pay for the half-point if it’s going to be available for free at some point. There are competing schools of thought about the value of buying a halfer or more. Some pros swear by it. Others contend that it’s a losing strategy—a negative expectation play and way too juicy. There’s no future in too juicy. We’d tend to side with the latter. Consistency is vital to the style and we’re consistent with the spots where we drink that juice (RLM/MIT spots around KEY1 numbers). Most books will charge -130 for a half-point on or off NFL numbers 3 & 7.
Dog to Favorite movement.
Coin Flipper Dog. Sometimes, if you take a step back and look at a matchup more from a pure “sporting perspective”—a lot of these games are more or less coin-flippers. Either team is equally likely to win. The point spread, often times—is based primarily on Public Perception and not Historical Performance Data. FLIPPER’s are Short/Medium-Odds spots where we believe the Public Perception & HPD is Brokedick (there’s a gap, not in line).
Favorite to Dog movement.
Fade the Public.
Good Public Side. GPS plays are when we’ve got what we feel is some real good RVAL (10%+ gap between our number and the Actual Number) on the Public Side. For the GPS, we feel we’ve identified adequate subjective angles too, some of that good Conventional Wisdom. And with bet Now TBI, accompanied by eventual Traditional line moves—we’ve gotten a Good Number for our side.
Game-Time Investment. Oak+14 (Pitt) 425, GT, BN+14.5, LMOF, MVR, SNGL
Invest NOW. Den-6.5 (KC) 425, N, KEY1, RVAL, SNGL
There are premium numbers for certain sports. For the NFL, it is the numbers 3 and 7. We’ve our own KEY1’s & KEY2’s for the ATS sections of the 6 pro and college we invest in. NFL Favorites will win by exactly 3 points nearly 10% of the time and by exactly 7 points nearly 5% of the time.
NFL games are decided by 3 points about 15% of the time and 7 points about 8% of the time. The other most common numbers of defeat are by margins of 10 and 6 points.
Numbers of secondary importance. We think of our KEY2’s in the NFL as the numbers 4, 6, 8, 10, 13 & 14. We weight our side selection heavily in regards to how we’re positioned around KEY1’s. KEY2’s are of less importance—but they matter a great deal too, obviously.
Line Moves Against Us.
Line Moves Our Favor.
Las Vegas Special. SL + RLM = LVSP. For LVSP’s, real Sharp Line out of Vegas—very little choice for us but to take their word for it. The LVSP features at least a hint/touch of RLM too.
Max Value Investment. Our BAZINGA* big bang theory wager (3x our typical wager amount).
Big Mover. A description to relay to followers that a play has a number that’s undergone significant line movement. Movers’s can often times be Fave To Dog (FTD) or Dog To Fave (DTF) investing opportunities.
Nerd Investment. Not very often, hardly ever, but sometimes, once in a blue moon—we’ll take a square approach for one of our daily cards. When you play the betting market like we do—you have to think your way through this thing each and every day. If some strong subjective Leans align with some public consensus but we can identify some of that good RVAL—We might just come in on the lower end of that volume and let ‘er rip with the masses on a couple—Nerd Investments.
The “Noob” is a generalization, an amalgamation of the partially fictionalized adversary that we face-off with every day. We refer to the Noob to help
lock us into the day’s action. The Noob is Johnny freshman in his college dorm—betting football for the first time. There’s some distance now between what we do currently and our days spent booking bets. So for our Noob, this decade—it’s those cash-avatar Twitter-cappers that know fuck-all about beating the books.
50 assholes's at the bar—you’re the only one that’s on the 49‘ers! That is what a NOPUSSY side looks and feels like. The gnarliest side on the board, in terms of side unanimity and subjective matchup info. A very common investment for us.
Nothing too Gnarly. OPBP for us in a matchup exhibiting less than a 60/40 split in the side data. Both our NTG & NTN General Play Types are NTE (Nothing Too Extreme) sides.
Nothing too Nerdy. We’re playing the Public Side but it’s a sub 60/40 split and/or some micro betting trends exist that make our side a little less square than it may appear with only a quick glance at the betting data. If we can get a good read on some Traditional movement and use an early bet for a Good Number, public side sub 60/40 split—that’s a NTN side.
Firmly Opposite the Betting Public—but not as extreme as our NOPUSSY sides.
Public Ain’t Always Wrong. Joining the masses in what would otherwise be a NOPUSSY spot. Public Ain’t Always Wrong, god knows. The Style Puts us on sides and we stick to our ratios opposite the betting public/volume, absolutely. But the first paragraph in our charter states that our aim, 365—is to simulate handling the action of the novice sports bettor. The PAAW play enables us to “lay-off” some of that Noob action, in a sense.
Public And Pros Alike. The General Public and the pro bettors in the desert are betting the same side in a matchup that had a Sharp Line grade. For PAPA’s, we’re surprised to see that our Sharp Side (SS) is the Public Side too. SL + MVR/TRAD side is consensus side = PAPA.
Public Perception. The betting number for a particular matchup is often times based more on Public Perception than it is Historical Performance Data. This fact runs contrary to the belief that the vast majority of the betting public is operating under. The oddsmakers job is to split the action, allow the built in 10% vig to eat up the public’s money, over time. You have to laugh every time you hear a mainstream media type use the Vegas line as a prediction of the eventual final score. That type of talk demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of how sports & sports investing works. The number is
not a prediction of the future. It is a measure of the betting public’s perception of the teams or team. If you don’t understand that—you will never win.
Public Side clocking more than 60% of the bets and we’re at least a touch late to our side, or she’s a 60%+ consensus side with a touch of RLM—that’s a PUSSY side. This here is decidedly not our cup of tea.
Reverse Line Movement. RLM is most important to us. The trends and data typically dictate which way a line is going to move. RLM is when, for example—65% of the bets are coming in on the Spurs-7.5 and the line is moving south, down to -7, -6.5. Not all RLM is significant. RLM is difficult to predict. We’re particularly interested in RLM in NOPUSSY spots.
Relative Value, or “perceived value.” Value based on the difference between the Actual Number we get for a matchup and where we had that same matchup capped ourelves. If we capped a game Warriors-6.5 and the books have Warriors-9.5, if we feel great about our cap—We might let ‘er rip on the Dog +9.5. That’s 3 points of RVAL.
Too Good To Be True. We don’t believe in traps, per se—but there’s no denying that certain matchup’s and corresponding numbers attract certain
types of players. The type of player that we’re always looking to position ourselves across from. SILVIO DANTE is a tricky designation. But Silvio Dante’s will have NOPUSSY side data. And the matchup will be a Noob’s spot—using some very recent, obvious Historical Performance Data.
Sharp Line. We’re not crazy about the term, “sharp,” as it relates to a person. The “sharp player” is a myth, mostly. The only things that are real, definitely—is the Noob/rookie/novice/trouble/inexperienced player. We do however use the word sharp for number assessments. Sharp number. Sharp in the sense that they put her where they should—despite wholly predictable public action coming in the other way.
Scared Moneyline Favorite. SMF bettors aren’t loving the idea of laying the points and the price Straight Up seems reasonable/manageable to them—so they opt for their Favorite just to win. For SMF’s, the Dog is getting the majority of the side vote. Normally, a popular Dog ATS is popular on the Moneyline too. But, would-be Fave spread bettors are opting for the Moneyline Favorite to the extent that the Side and ML data is flipped. This is what Scared Money looks like in the betting data. This Play Type is most common in the NFL for spreads within the 3.5-7.5 point range.
Straight Value. Points or payout odds gained from movement as a result of betting trends, in relation to a given matchup’s Opening Number (ON).
New Orleans opens as 6 point Dogs in Seattle. Opening Line action moved them down to +4. After opening betting action had New Orleans back up to +5. The after dinner crowd had the Saints closing +6.5 most shops. That’s a SWINGER.
Traditional line movement. Line moving in the direction where the betting data would typically dictate that it go.
Unranked Home Favorite Against A Ranked Team.
Unlikely To Get Worse.
Value Bet. The side we're opting for has benefited from relatively less significant movement.
Value’s Walked. We’re moving on a side where the value has mostly evaporated. For us, a lot of times the A1A reason we’re moving on a side is because of the movement. For every investment we give, we make a simple determination—grab our side Now or later. Normally the name of the game is to move quickly on a side when the line moves are against us. But when she’s bottomed out (WALKER)—the only thing left to do is wait and see if she might uptick or swing back our way.
Will, Could, Should. There’s almost always a distinction to be made, and/or consider between where a given matchup’s number Will open, where it Could open and where it Should open. WCS. Sometimes the WCS is one and the same. Other times it isn’t. The WCS is what sports handicapping is all about. Noob handicappers on Twitter and elsewhere don’t know shit about WCS.
We’ll live. The way we describe a WALKER side where the value has walked for us—but we’re in a zone where statistically it is less likely to matter,
hopefully. An Absolute High End college football number RLM’s from a +30 down to +28.5 and Full Trend Betting we’re moving on the Long-Odds Dog (plus those 4 TD’s and the hook). We could had her +30—but we’ll live, hopefully.
Published 22nd March @ 03:05