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ZGroup Manifesto

ZGroup’s sports investing Manifesto

The ZGroup’s aim is to simulate what it’s like to be the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor—every goddamn day of the year. We have Fading The Public down to a science. Actually—we’ve boiled it down to numbers & style. We wrote a book for the contrarian sports bettor, similar to the book that people usually refer to in relation to blackjack.

We’ve been making our money sports investing since the 90’s. We handled the action of rookies and veterans and everything in between, for over a decade. We handled well north of 7 figures worth of investments—beginning back in the day when the best and only place to get daily numbers was the newspaper. We switched over to laying them, exclusively, towards the end of last decade—and began sharing our daily wagers for free on 1/1/13.

There were a number of reasons why we made the switch. Number 1 was the proliferation of data on the web and in the cloud and the emergence of good line movement and public side preference information. Also, Ron "The Don" almost got himself killed at a family owned Thai restaurant, in pursuit of monies owed to The ZGroup.

So now, for us, across 6 pro and college sports, with ZGroup & follower’s sides—we simulate what it’s like to run an illegal sportsbetting operation. It’s bookie side action, 365—without all the headache that comes along with running an illegal sports betting operation.

We always thought there was value in our experience, our view of the sports investing market and in our daily wagers process. In 2013, we set out to build something on top of cashed tickets. And mostly, ZGroup services was born out of our utter disdain for the rookie & fraud “handicappers” that were becoming far too prevalent on Twitter and elsewhere. We felt a mandate to offer a legitimate, honest service that lives exactly opposite the Noob dipshits that are out there. Them with their 10 star bombs, and HPD resets, and locks, and guaranteed picks—clogging up the airways, disrespecting the grind, out there in mass—like so many nickels and dimes. And since January of 2013, doing things our way, the right way—we’ve built a community of data-driven, contrarian and winning players with followers worldwide.

We are a picks service for folks that historically have never had much use for handicappers. ZGroup followers/future members are smart players with a fully developed understanding of sports investing. They’re folks that understand the time commitment required to beat the books. But they don’t have that time to give—and they’ve basically commissioned us to do the required work, daily.

95% of handicappers are not about beating the books. They use sports investing merely as an avenue to get their weak-ass hustle on. And the idea of paying for 1 pick, betting somebody else’s Expected Outcome Side—that’s absurd. Nothing in the history of the world has ever been worth risking more than DBL your ZWA. That doesn’t mean there’s never a time to press up. It just means that the only thing extraordinary in that dynamic is the amount by which a gambler has exceeded his Typical Wager Amount. And if you’re gonna bet a Like—bet your own goddamn Like. TBG offers members a successful, long-term sportsbetting strategy. And we have the data to backup that assertion.

Every ZGroup side includes information about how the pick fits, for us. Our acronyms and additional write-ups allow us to relay the objective and subjective elements that are present in a ZGroup Style Fit side. The novice handicapper’s analysis & rationale is non-existent. It’s non-existent because it doesn’t exist. They’re just throwing shit up against the wall, hoping something will stick. Or they’re so dense that they don’t even understand their own EOS Likes. Or the rookie “capper” is too stupid to spell words and write. Or they’re such part-timers that they don’t allot the time it takes to explain themselves. If a handicapper isn’t at least willing to give more than just picks—block them and call the BBB.

“A perfectly placed comma in ‘you’re’ puts you in the 98th percentile.” —Steve Martin?

From a business perspective, the worst thing about being pro handicappers is that our competition is predominantly, overwhelmingly hacks & amateurs. It would be like owning and operating an auto dealership, where the other dealerships right around you are so bad—that customers leave their shops and drive far, far away. They’re so turned off by their dealings with your competition that they refuse to buy automobiles entirely. They’d rather walk from now on, 20 miles to work—than buy a car from those people or talk to them ever again.

Fuck handicappers. I hear you, believe me. We live in a handicapper free world. Their approach, EOS sides and marketing is disturbing. Seeing their work can take me to a place that I don’t like to go. A place that isn’t healthy for our daily process. I know what they’re about and I do not need to be reminded, ever. Now, we communicate daily with some handicapper friends and contacts. We follow a couple people on Twitter that post picks for clients and cap games—but these people are nothing like those people that we’re describing and railing against.

And with handicapping in general, it circles back to the old question—if you’re so sure about the Steelers-7, then what the fuck do you need my money for? Not to mention the fact that most of those people have somebody on the other line and they’re selling them the Browns+7—so as to give themselves their best shot at 1 client for every 2 clients that their marketing efforts attract.

We don’t engage in any of that nonsense. We work full-time at beating the books, our way, with 100% honesty and integrity. And there’s value in what we do. Our numbers and followers prove that. We are doing exactly what we should be doing. ZGroup offers followers/future members a successful, long-term sportsbetting strategy. And we began sharing our daily card on 1/1/13 because there was a mandate to offer a service that lives 180 degrees across from the Noob handicappers. That hasn’t changed. Our competition has actually gotten worse, more depraved, since 2013. And we’ll make you a deal. If they ever stop running their bullshit. If the wad-of-cash-avatar Twitter cappers ever do what they should do—stop, shut it down, go dark—that’ll be the day that we go back to laying them, exclusively. But until that day, we’re going to continue to share our picks and run our services. Exactly opposite in every way, by design—from dipshits like @profitdork.

Fading The Public is actually a very common notion. You’ll hear folks extoll the virtues of FTP. At some point, most think, “I should just do the opposite of what I think.” They’re not entirely wrong, at all. The whole system is designed to prevent Johnny Sportscenter bettor from using his little Conventional Wisdom to get paid at the betting window.

But very few have the balls to Fade The Public—to live OPBP. OPBP is a lifestyle. And even less have the expertise required to go OPBP/volume successfully. There’s a whole lot more to it than just identifying the public’s side and going opposite. Read ZGroup’s sports investing style, explained. 

If I had to stake some greasy, Vegas sportsbook veteran with a good track record or Bill Parcells, for a season of betting the NFL—I’d probably back the greaser. Sportsbetting has less to do with sports than it does gambling. Put another way—a professional poker player with a strong understanding of basketball and the NBA would do better betting the NBA than would Hubie Brown.

Brown’s been around the sport as a coach and an analyst for 50 years. Say what you want about Brown—but he knows the game. But, he probably wouldn’t be a successful NBA bettor because presumably he knows fuck-all about gambling and the number. Hubie Brown has been around the sport for just about a half century and his knowledge ball, as it pertains directly to the game—probably wouldn’t translate into wins at the window.

But on Twitter, amateur handicappers are trading exclusively on their basketball knowledge. Giving picks based on what they know, or what they think they know about goddamn Dwyane Wade. It’s fucking insane. Your average handicapper, especially those on Twitter—they are running non-stop game and scams. They’re not Vegas pros and they definitely don’t have a knowledge ball that’s as big as Hubie Brown’s. Unless the Hubie Brown we’re talking about is some dork in his mom’s basement or a barber in Yonkers, that has never been anywhere near a basketball court.

Handicappers that trade exclusively on Conventional Wisdom and sports knowledge are no different than fortune tellers and psychics, charging $20 for a palm read or flipping tarot cards. The only things that matter, the only elements that are real—are style, expertise and numbers. We might be handicappers, but we’re nothing like most of these dudes.

The Noob handicapper tweets grainy, brokedick photos of betting slips and screen shots. He thinks handicapping is when he bets $50 on a 3-teamer. We trade on analysis, picks, profit and accurately recorded HPD—verifiable via time stamped emails/wager posts.

The Noob handicapper puts dollar amounts next to his picks. That’s a dead giveaway that whoever wrote that doesn’t know what the fuck they’re doing—absolute amateur hour. Any dollar amount is relative. It means nothing to put a dollar amount next to a pick. $50 is a big bet for some people. $500 is Small-Change for others. And both those realities are fine. And they’re just that—reality. 

The gambler’s ROI is based on ZWA and betting bankroll. Scam cappers don’t have any concept of bankroll management. Our ZWA system is the only way to list picks—SNGL, DBL or TRPL. We’re not crazy about the term “units.” We say ZGroup Wager Amount (ZWA), exclusively.

The Noob handicapper resets his HPD. We trade on our winning years, all plays. There is nothing more pathetic than a Twitter “capper” giving a 10 star bomb, missing. Then chasing that L with a $2000 lock, whiff. Then his next play hits, it was the “lock of the century”—and he declares a profit. 

L’s are a part of this thing. If you don’t understand and respect the inevitability of the L—then you’re a loser. Understanding the nature of L’s leads to the DBL ZWA concept and principle. And until you’re operating with that reality as a pillar—it is impossible to win, your money is never yours. This type of player cannot even enjoy his wins. He has his -6.5 up 28 in the 4th quarter and he’s kicking himself because he wishes he had bet more. He doesn’t know where his next W is going to come from so he thinks that this particular win is a missed opportunity.

Because of our consistent, winning style—we know that our next W is right around the corner. We keep our focus right where it should be—on the next betting opportunity. We recorded W’s in over 1300 games in 2013, hitting 61.71% of our BAZINGA* (TRPL*) wager spots, achieving our +10K/100K benchmark in back-to-back years.

There is no such thing as a “lock.” People that believe in guaranteed picks or locks don’t understand the universe and they definitely don’t have a grip on the way the sporting world and investing works. The people that don’t understand this concept are the folks that have to sign over their automobile—or worse. We build bankrolls and protect our stack. We’re still eating off of W’s from last year.

The “documented” thing from handicappers on Twitter has to be the most vomit inducing thing that they do. As if anybody with a brain gives a shit about how some amateur documents his little plays. Everything we do is documented. We’re documented at every imaginable interval. ZGroup followers document our work at the window, with their local guy or at their online shop every day, year-round (ZG6).

Having shared our card with ZGroup followers for years—millions of dollars worldwide have been bet based on our emails/wager posts on our cock-sucking Blog. We’ve had some of the same folks with us for years now, plural, by the way.

And nothing we’ve done in the past will make a difference to a member if their stretch isn’t a winning stretch. That’s the way this thing works. And that’s fine. We’re uniquely prepared for the realities of this business. Our style, expertise and subsequent success is very much real.

I feel sorry for the #documented crowd. It’s easy to tell, any number of ways—that they’re incapable of investing sports for a living. We understand how tough a grind this thing is, how smart you have to be to be a consistent winner. Rookies have no shot. No chance Fredo. I don’t need to see their bullshit documentation to know that is a fact.

The losing sports bettor does this thing part-time. They have a good day or a bad day and then they don’t look at the numbers again for 72 hours. We approach sports investing the way a successful Wall Street broker approaches the stock market.

Stock brokers don’t come in and work 12 hours on a Monday and then take the rest of the week off. If stock brokers were like most sports bettors—then they would make a ton of trades on Monday and then go on vacation. They wouldn’t return your phone calls and their office would be dark and then they would reappear Thursday evening and start firing on the Chinese markets.

If they were your broker—you would fire them. You’d fire them because you’d be able to make an assumption about their behavior and subsequent future in the market. And the accurate assumption would be that they have no future in the market, zero.

We invest sports for a living and share our card with members 365 days a year. We apply our style & expertise to 6 professional and college leagues. ZGroup followers are as disciplined as we are. We send our wagers to followers/future members in plenty of time to get them booked with their guy or local shop, 365. The OPBP/volume style and approach to the market mandates a ZGroup card from every full board.

Games hit and games miss. Your ATS Dog will win by 3 touchdowns and you’re Short-Odds Fave will get shutout at home. The rest will be right around the number. The way you make money betting sports is to have a consistent, winning style. Then you have to kick the number’s ass.

The Noob handicapper gives games at kickoff that have been on the board for 36 hours. And the number for the Expected Outcome Side that he was always gonna give—is 2 points worse than it was when she opened. I’d say he’s got a dogshit number for his side because he wasn’t on his game, but to be on your game—first you must have game. Amateurs parading around as pros. And there’s nothing wrong with being an amateur. My only beef is when amateurs make their avatar a wad of cash and sell picks.

Style, numbers, expertise and then subjective matchup information—that’s where we live. Noob handicappers have that list backwards. They’ve got no style and they don’t know shit. Sorry for trolling.

“90% of being cool is looking cool.” —Chris Kyle

There are 2 ways to do this thing. Our way—fading rooks in terms of side and style. Data-driven, objective, disciplined, OPBP/volume. Or, you’ll need a wager amount that will pay 3 months of your personal bills. You’ll need to be insanely selective. And then hammer 3 games a month. Oh, and for approach #2—you’ll need to have been born with a fucking horseshoe up your ass.

ZGroup followers have come to the realization that the way most people bet sports is wrong and they’re in agreement with the OPBP/volume concept & approach. Followers are disciplined. They’re comfortable with volume and they possess a stiff enough chin to handle the inevitable gambling swings. Followers/Future Members Must Love Underdogs.

ZGroup followers are experienced players—often contacting us for replacement sides, additional information about data & trends for upcoming games and for our thoughts on matchups that may or may not be on a given day’s ZGroup card.

The number of games we play is strategic and designed to mimic the betting patterns of the novice gambler. Our aim is to position ourselves, and the followers that follow our plays—as if we’re the bookie, handling the action of the world’s worst sports bettor (less the benefit of the juice, of course).

We can’t simulate what it’s like to be on the right side of the vig. But unlike booking bets, we control when we move on a side. We monitor opening lines and log side data from opening numbers until a game comes down off the board. We use our expertise and experience, combined with our TII to work for consistently good numbers for all ZGroup sides. And assuming followers/future members get their money in full from their guy or shop—we don’t have to worry about what Jesse Pinkman would refer to as, “Breakage.” 

And by breakage, what we mean is, if you were actually booking the bets of our Noob—he’d be the type of guy that would have trouble paying his debts. We don’t have to worry about that, ever since we switched over from taking them to laying them.

Ours is volume style and the number matters. The number we slap on the Blog or followers email on it’s way out the door is always realistic. It’s a number we know followers will have access to in combination with our TII. We work hard for our followers to monitor opening lines and track line moves. ZGroup followers should have more than one place that handles their action. Line shopping is crucial and an overlooked aspect by 95% of the betting public. There is an edge for the bettor that seeks out their side’s best available number.

We are full-time sports investing consultants, per our style—to each and every member of our contrarian betting community. The daily email/Blog post with our wagers is a vital tool for our followers and it helps propel them into that elusive 5% of people that make money investing sports.

We usually limit our contact to 1 or 2 emails/Blog posts per day—always sent with enough time for followers to get down. ZGroup’s plays are sent at least one hour before tip, kick or first pitch—or by 4 PM Pacific US, guaranteed, every day. Our broker gets the ZGgroup picks email just like everybody else. Most of what we do is objective. We mostly give games based on things that only ZGroup can identify in betting trends, sprinkling in about 25% subjectivity. We don’t say system—we prefer style. Fading the public is an art—not a science.

Successful sportsbetting is a grind, not a get rich quick scheme. The ZGroup offers followers/future members a successful, long-term sports betting strategy.

The followers/future member email is year-round, 365. Football (NFL & NCAAF). Baseball (MLB). Basketball (NBA & NCAAB). Hockey (NHL).

ZGroup will keep you in the black. ZGroup will take you from the red to the black. You’ll enjoy a ton of action and make money investing on sports.

Join our group of data-driven, contrarian and winning sports investors.

Published 22nd March @ 05:38