*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
Last week's scoreline marked the 160th time in European competition history that a team has lost the first leg by four or more goals—and only once has such a deficit ever been overturned. Ironically, it was Barcelona themselves who pulled off that miracle against PSG in the 2016-2017 season, winning 6-1 in the return leg.
Unfortunately for Dortmund fans, there’s little cause for optimism based on recent home form. The team has just three wins in their last 12 home matches, a run that includes the 2-3 group stage defeat to Barcelona.
At the weekend, Dortmund drew 2-2 away to Bayern Munich, in a match they nearly won. Beier opened the scoring, and center-back Anton equalized late, but the result pushes Dortmund further away from qualifying for next season's Champions League.
For this clash, coach Niko Kovac will have Pascal Gross available again after he featured against Bayern. He’ll pair with Emre Can in midfield, while Anton and Süle will anchor the defense. Striker Serhou Guirassy, despite failing to score in his last four Champions League games, remains Dortmund’s top scorer this season with 10 goals and will lead the line. Adeyemi and Gittens are expected to return to the starting XI, with Brandt likely to play in the attacking midfield role.
On the other side, Barcelona travel to Germany with confidence and a comfortable advantage. Historically, they have never lost to Borussia Dortmund and have been dominant offensively this season, averaging over three goals per game in the Champions League.
The Catalans did, however, look a bit fatigued over the weekend in a narrow away win at struggling Leganes. It took a second-half own goal and a standout defensive display from Inigo Martinez to secure the three points.
Barcelona are unbeaten in 2025, with 20 wins and four draws, and they’ve won all three of their Champions League matches against German sides this season. Their average of 3.3 goals per game is the second-best in history, behind only Bayern Munich’s 3.9 in the 2019–2020 season under—ironically—Hansi Flick.
Lewandowski continues to shine, with 60 goals in 59 Champions League matches played after the age of 30—second only to Cristiano Ronaldo’s 68 in 74.
Raphinha has been exceptional as well, with 12 goals and 7 assists this UCL campaign, totaling 19 goal contributions. He's now chasing Ronaldo (21) and Lewandowski (20) for the most contributions in a single UCL season.
Coach Hansi Flick has a full-strength squad and is expected to field his best XI. Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Yamal will start in attack, while Pedri, Gavi, and De Jong will control the midfield. In defense, Inigo Martinez and Cubarsí will partner in central roles.
Barcelona is unbeaten in all six previous meetings with Borussia Dortmund, including two wins this season—most notably the 3-2 victory in Germany during the group stage.
Best Betting Suggestions
- Barcelona to Win Given their unbeaten record against Dortmund and strong away form, this is a value-backed bet.
- Both Teams to Score – YES Dortmund will push forward desperately, and with Barcelona’s attacking threat, goals are likely on both sides.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals Both teams have high-scoring tendencies and attacking setups. Barcelona alone averages over 3 per game in this campaign.
- Lewandowski to Score Anytime He thrives in the Champions League, especially in the knockout stages, and has a point to prove against his former Bundesliga club.
- Raphinha to Register a Goal or Assist With 19 goal involvements this UCL season, he’s one of the most in-form players in Europe.