*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
Inter: Turbulent Times Before a Crucial Clash
Inter enter this crucial derby in the midst of a rough patch. Just days ago, the reigning Serie A champions suffered a 0-1 loss at Bologna, conceding in the dying minutes of the match. That defeat allowed Napoli to catch up, leaving the two sides level on points with just five games remaining in the league season.
Adding to their fixture congestion, Inter face another challenging opponent, AS Roma, later this week. Recent form is also a concern: just two wins in their last six matches across all competitions—2-1 away at Bayern and 3-1 at home against Cagliari. Since then, they’ve drawn 2-2 with Bayern and lost to Bologna.
Still, their home form in the Coppa Italia remains solid, with 2-0 wins against both Udinese and Lazio. They haven't lost a home cup match since 2021 (1-2 vs Juventus).
In terms of squad news, Dumfries and Zielinski are sidelined, while Marcus Thuram might return to the bench. Arnautovic is expected to start alongside Lautaro Martínez up front.
Milan: A Make-or-Break Moment
For Milan, this is the biggest match of their season. Underperforming in Serie A, they currently sit 9th and are unlikely to secure a Champions League or even Conference League spot via the league. They're five points behind Lazio with one extra match played.
This makes the Coppa Italia their only viable route to European football next season. Winning the cup would grant them a Europa League spot—vital financially and symbolically. However, the Coppa has never been Milan’s favorite competition; they’ve won it only five times, the last being in 2003.
Their road to the semi-finals included emphatic home wins: 6-1 over Sassuolo and 3-1 against Roma, both played in front of 70,000 fans at San Siro. But Milan have not won a Coppa Italia away match since 2016, when they beat Alessandria.
Coach Sérgio Conceição is likely to stick with three at the back—Pavlović, Tomori, and Gabbia forming the core. Loftus-Cheek, Emerson, and Walker remain unavailable, while Abraham or Giménez could start in place of Jović.
Head-to-Head: Milan’s Edge This Season
Milan are unbeaten against Inter this season, recording a win (2-1) and two draws (1-1, 3-3) across Serie A, Coppa Italia and the Supercoppa Italiana. Inter’s last win in the derby came in April last year, a 2-1 victory in Serie A. In their last Coppa Italia meeting in 2022, Inter advanced with a 3-0 win after a goalless first leg.
Top Betting Suggestions
1. Double Chance – Milan or Draw
Milan are unbeaten against Inter this season and have everything to play for. With Inter under pressure and distracted by the title race and Champions League, Milan are a strong bet to avoid defeat.
2. Both Teams to Score – Yes
Four of the last five meetings have seen both sides score, and given the attacking options and shaky form at the back for both, BTTS is a smart pick.
3. Over 2.5 Goals
This fixture has been lively this season—final scores of 2-1, 3-3, and 1-1. With everything on the line and defensive absentees, expect chances.
4. Lautaro Martínez – Anytime Goalscorer
Inter’s main threat up front and has scored in big games before. With Arnautovic beside him, he’ll be the focal point again.