*Match preview and betting tips provided by SVB Tips
Previous Encounter
The reverse fixture at Villa Park ended with a 2-1 victory for the Villans, thanks to goals from Jhon Durán and Morgan Rogers, while Phil Foden scored for the visitors.
Manchester City – Uncharacteristically Vulnerable
City head into the final stretch of the season with plenty of pressure, risking missing out on Champions League qualification for the first time in over a decade. With just 58 points from 33 games, they sit fourth, trailing third place by one point and holding the same slim margin over fifth place.
Pep Guardiola’s side has already suffered nine defeats—a rare occurrence that has not been seen since the 2019-20 season when they finished 18 points behind Liverpool.
City have shifted focus solely to domestic action this April, earning three wins and a goalless draw against rivals Manchester United. Their most recent victory came on Saturday at Goodison Park, where 20-year-old Nico O’Reillyand Mateo Kovačić secured a hard-fought 2-0 win over Everton.
With 64 goals, City boast the league’s second-best attack behind Liverpool. However, the absence of Erling Haaland (21 goals), who picked up an injury in late March, has cast doubt over the team’s offensive efficiency.
Fortunately, Omar Marmoush, signed for €75M from Eintracht Frankfurt, has adapted quickly, scoring 7 goals in 15 appearances (6 in the league, 1 in the FA Cup).
City remains in contention for one more trophy—the FA Cup—and will face Nottingham Forest in the semifinals, but for this match, they’ll be without Manuel Akanji, John Stones, Rodri, Nathan Aké, Ederson, and Erling Haaland.
Aston Villa – In Scorching Form
Aston Villa are arguably the most in-form side in the Premier League right now, riding a five-match winning streak that has reignited their Champions League hopes. Despite their recent elimination from the UCL by PSG, their European run exceeded expectations.
Villa currently sit sixth with 57 points, level with fifth-placed Nottingham Forest, and just two points off third. While most of their success has come at home, they’ve recently secured three consecutive away wins, strengthening their road form.
Last weekend, they overpowered Newcastle United in a commanding 4-1 win, breaking the deadlock in the second half with three rapid goals.
However, their Achilles heel remains the defence—47 goals conceded, the most among teams currently in European spots. The absence of Pau Torres has been felt, despite his recent return from injury. He has only made one league appearance since March but played both legs against PSG.
Offensively, Villa looks sharp, led by Ollie Watkins, who has tallied 16 goals and 13 assists this season. Though it’s unlikely he’ll surpass last season’s total of 27 goals, his influence is undeniable.
Manager Unai Emery has built something special at Villa Park, and with €214M spent over the last two transfer windows, the project is starting to bear fruit. Interest is already mounting for Watkins and Rogers, with Man City, Bayern Munich, and Man United among the rumoured suitors.
Villa has a fully fit squad for the showdown at the Etihad.
Head-to-Head & Key Stats
- 49 Premier League meetings: Man City lead 30-10 (9 draws)
- Last 5 meetings:
- Dec 21, 2024 – Aston Villa 2-1 Man City
- Apr 3, 2024 – Man City 4-1 Aston Villa
- Dec 6, 2023 – Aston Villa 1-0 Man City
- Feb 12, 2023 – Man City 3-1 Aston Villa
- Sep 3, 2022 – Aston Villa 1-1 Man City
- Guardiola vs Emery (all comps): 10 wins (Pep), 2 wins (Emery), 4 draws
Betting Tips
- Both Teams to Score – YES
- Villa have scored in 10 of their last 11 games; City’s defence is weakened by absences (Stones, Rodri, Ederson).
- BTTS landed in 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads.
- Over 2.5 Goals
- City boast the 2nd best attack; Villa’s offence is flying under Watkins.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H matches had 3+ goals.
- Ollie Watkins – Anytime Goalscorer
- 16 goals this season; City's defence missing key players.
- Double Chance – Aston Villa or Draw (Value bet)
- Villa in great form, City under pressure and missing several starters.
- Correct Score Bet (High Risk/Reward):
- 2-2 Draw or 2-1 Villa
- (Recent form and squad availability hint at a surprise.)