But more and more often, and especially in social media circles, tipsters and bettors alike are confusing the term. It's often become a phrase to dangle in front of a bettor to promote services, promote confidence or encourage bigger staking in bets that certainly are not sure bets
In the world of betting, no one man's opinion of which team should score more goals can be guaranteed a sure bet. Even if there was a team or player who won 999 out of every 1000 games played, that one loss is enough to prevent something from being an actual sure (certain) bet!
Pros & Cons of Sure bets
- Pro - Sure bets are a good way to making money if you have the funds.
- Pro - IF you can avoid detection using this frowned upon method of betting, then there is no financial risk to the bettor when done properly.
- Con - Not everyone will have the large funds required to make substantial wins when placing sure bets. Even if you do, you run the risk of being caught and limited.
- Con - The term sure bets is often confused and misused in the betting world, where online tipsters deem it acceptable to call low betting odds selections a sure bet.
A sure bet is just another term of arbitrage betting when used properly, but it also a term that has been wildly misused in betting circles recently. We're going to take a look at what a sure bet actually is, where you find them and just how the term has been misused in recent times.
What is a sure bet, really?
By definition it would have to be a bet that holds a 100% chance of winning and a 100% chance of success. If an outcome has occurred 8,999,999 times out of every 9,000,000, then it can be assessed as having a damn good success rate, but that still isn't 100%, is it? It's 99.9999889%, which still leaves some room for error! A sure bet is an absolute, 100%, nailed-on certainty.
How do you find a sure bet?
So arbitrage betting is the act of identifying conflicting market opinion between bookmakers that leads to best odds contrasting odds in a two-way betting market. Sometimes, the difference in opinion is enough to create a scenario where you can stake a specific amount of money on each selection and be guaranteed a profit from sports betting regardless of which outcome wins. It's highly frowned up and hard to get away with it, but very easy to identify these days.
Websites like Bet On Value highlight to punters potential sure bets. By comparing all of the available betting odds for two-way betting markets you'll be able to see where the overround comes to less than 100%. If something has an overround of 98.8%, your guaranteed profit would be 1.2%. If the overround comes to 95% then the guaranteed profit would be 5%. These comparison sites are by far the best way to identify a sure (arbitrage bet).
You can read in more detail about arbitrage betting right here.
Where terms have become confused
The term sure bet has been lost in translation. Whether it's a social media punter trying to attract attention, a casual tipster who doesn't understand the implications of the term he's using on Twitter, or perhaps that latest fixed-match scammer that keeps popping up in your facebook betting group.
A fixed match information being shared online isn't even within the realms of worthwhile probability, yet to unknowing, inexperienced and foreign bettors with a language barrier, the term sure bet is a dangerous and misleading one. The term has been completely misused time and time again to where it's now commonplace on social media to see the term sure bet used as a way of describing a decent bet with a fair chance.
The vast majority of sports allow for a sure bet, at least in the true meaning of the term (arbitrage betting). Two betting markets are what you need, so football bets, US sports betting and other head-to-head sports betting markets are all popular choices where you will find arbitrage betting.
Wider fields that offer head to head betting markets such as motor racing, golf and racing can also on occasion be good for a sure bet. But it's the casual bettors or tipsters peddling their services that cause confusion by misusing the term. Professional bettors seek sure bets, but moreover you'd have to say it's wealthy investors with a keen eye for an opportunity rather than someone with a direct betting background.
It takes a very large amount of money to manufacture worthwhile profits from sure bets and even a large percentage of professional bettors do not have that. Sure bets is almost an investment method for the wealthy as much as it is a good betting strategy.
Remember that a sure bet by definition is just another name for an arbitrage bet, which is a bet which has a 100% chance of winning. Taking two opposing outcomes in a two way betting market from different bookmakers and finding out the overround comes to less than 100% is finding a sure bet.
A bet that you think looks good based on form and gut instinct will never be a sure bet. Just because a bet looks good in your opinion, it is not a sure bet unless it has a 100% chance of winning. And nothing other than a correctly executed arbitrage (sure) bet does.
Prepared your strategy? We've got some interesting articles about infamous betting scams here.